That shocking election loss forced the Shinawatra clan to reshape its political outfit. Pheu Thai is now seen by critics as a supporter of the interests of the arch-royalist conservative elite. This is in stark contrast to its past as a pro-democracy outsider who championed wealth redistribution among the rural poor.

From 2001 to 2011, it won three consecutive landslide election victories on the back of that policy. But now Pheu Thai leads a coalition of former enemies.

“Thaksin has shown this year that he is not a political idealist, he is a political opportunist,” Paul Chambers, a political expert and lecturer at Naresuan University in Thailand, told This Week in Asia.

At 38, his daughter has broken records as the youngest person to hold a top job in Thailand. But Paetongtarn faces a tough task to prove to the Thai public that she represents the interests of more than just her family in her role and that she can keep the kingdom’s warring elites in check.

But Prawit himself is now under fire. Thailand’s parliament said on Thursday it would investigate Prawit after he was seen in a video repeatedly punching ThaiPBS journalist Duangthip Yiamphop in the head as he left a building, demanding: “What are you asking? What? What?”

The 79-year-old could face suspension from parliament or even a lifetime ban if found guilty of a serious ethical breach. He has apologized to Duangthip and said he had “no bad intentions.”

Experts say whether or not Prawit is included in a government in Paetongtarn could have other consequences.

Analysts say the charges could come into play if old enemies think he has gone too far, while his daughter now heads a government whose policy results could later be used against her through interventionist courts.

“If Thaksin suddenly seizes power through Ung Ing, you can expect an early end to this government,” Chambers said, using the popular nickname of Paetongtarn.

“Thaksin could still end up in jail for violating 112. Ung Ing could also face trial if she (like Srettha) is convicted of unethical conduct.”

Paetongtarn, who has a degree in hotel management from Surrey University, is also a political novice, having never won an election or held a ministerial position.

The Move Forward Party won that vote, promising economic and structural reforms. But it was pushed into opposition when Pheu Thai joined forces with defeated conservative parties to form a coalition.

According to Matthew Wheeler, senior analyst for Southeast Asia at the International Crisis Group, “such judicial decisions push the country toward a final reckoning.”

“For many Move Forward supporters, the Constitutional Court’s serial disenfranchisement of voters calls into question the rationale for general elections. The gap between what voters want and what the establishment will tolerate is likely to widen.”

Move Forward has reorganized and now calls itself the People’s Party. The party is focused on the 2027 elections.

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Thai reformist political party Move Forward dissolved under lèse-majesté law

Thai reformist political party Move Forward dissolved under lèse-majesté law

Pheu Thai hopes that Paetongtarn’s youthful appeal will be its trump card come the time of the next election.

She says she will be her own prime minister, working for all Thais with her “own goals.” But she is widely expected to lean on her father and his party’s longtime figureheads for policy direction.

Thaksin himself has so far done little to quash speculation that he played a major role in shaping his daughter’s thinking.

When asked by reporters this month whether he would dominate her decision-making, he said: “Dominate? No, I own her. She’s my daughter.”

Paetongtarn also inherits an underperforming Southeast Asian economy, burdened by huge household debt (about 90 percent of gross domestic product) and whose banks are struggling with bad loans.

Thailand’s once-thriving manufacturing sector is also struggling to compete, and the country is not producing enough graduates to staff the new tech industries it desperately needs to move up the value chain.

For the Shinawatra’s loyal followers, however, the fact that someone from the clan is again holding a high office is a sign of better economic times.

Thaksin, who came to power in 2001, has revived Thailand’s economy after the devastating “tom yum goong” financial crisis of the late 1990s. His policies, dubbed “Thaksinomics,” helped boost Japanese investment in key industries such as electronics and automobiles, leading to growth rates of more than 5 percent during his first term.

Crucially, Thaksin’s agenda also recognized the changing aspirations of Thailand’s long-neglected rural poor for the first time in the country’s history. Small business loans flowed to village-level enterprises, along with scholarships for the underprivileged, agricultural subsidies, a 300 baht minimum daily wage, and the introduction of a virtually free “30 baht” universal health care system.

Although this groundbreaking initiative still struggles with funding two decades later, it continues to provide a vital medical safety net for millions of Thais left behind by the country’s uneven economic development.

But Thaksin’s populist, pro-poor policies—along with his growing political power and allegations of corruption—soon discredited Bangkok’s established elite. The backlash culminated in a military coup in 2006, after which he fled abroad to avoid prison on corruption charges. Years of bitter, bloody street protests between rival factions ravaged the country.

Another lost decade?

But those ambitious plans are now all frozen under the new government. Meanwhile, Pheu Thai’s campaign promise to further increase the minimum wage has stalled and it remains unclear when a long-delayed 10,000 baht (US$290) digital cash handout will start.

Crucially, for young voters clamoring for systemic change to Thailand’s entrenched power and wealth inequalities, neither these modest donations nor the continued prominence of Shinawatra’s political brand appear to be generating the same fervent support as they once did among their parents’ generation.

After two coups, countless deaths from political violence, judicial rulings and 20 years of instability – all to see Shinawatra return to power – many pro-democracy leaders are now warning that Thailand appears poised for some bleak times.

As Pita, the Move Forward leader who was to have become prime minister, succinctly told Reuters: “We are back to square one and nothing has been achieved for the people.”

Still, Paetongtarn and her father hope to stay in power for three years before the next election in 2027, to show that Shinawatra’s political influence is still as powerful and magical as ever.

But it will not be an easy task, as the sceptical sentiment of one Move Forward voter shows.

“Good job (the Shinawatras),” said Earn, 30. “My parents would be happy about it. But my generation already knows they work for their family and not for us.”

Additional reporting by Agence France-Presse