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Labor market: more cooling could lead to greater unemployment increases
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Labor market: more cooling could lead to greater unemployment increases

The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, is drawing to a close.

These are some of the key conclusions of the conference:

Powell Pivot Point

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s much-anticipated speech confirmed expectations of a rate cut at the central bank’s next meeting on Sept. 17-18, boosting stock prices and Treasury yields.

“It is time for policy to adjust,” Powell said Friday. “The direction of travel is clear, and the timing and pace of rate cuts will depend on incoming data, the changing outlook and the balance of risks.”

Powell said he is more confident that inflation is on track to the Fed’s 2% target, while acknowledging that there is an “unmistakable” cooling in the labor market. “We are not looking for or welcoming any further cooling in labor market conditions,” he said.

Powell offered few details about how the Fed would address borrowing costs after its September meeting, but he stressed that attention should be focused on lessons learned from the upcoming review of the central bank’s policy framework.

International perspective

Powell wasn’t the only central banker to signal that interest rates were headed sharply lower.

Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said on Friday that while it is “too early to declare victory” on inflation, risks from persistent price pressures appear to be receding. The British central bank cut its benchmark interest rate earlier this month and his comments suggested he is growing confident of further rate cuts.

Meanwhile, several members of the European Central Bank Governing Council who attended the conference said they would support another interest rate cut next month. The group included Finn Olli Rehn, Latvian Martins Kazaks, Croatian Boris Vujcic and Portuguese Mario Centeno.

The ECB cut borrowing costs in June, with Centeno calling a decision to ease it in less than three weeks “easy” given inflation and growth data.

Path forward

During the conference, a number of Fed officials gave their latest views on the economy and provided tips on the way forward.

Philadelphia Fed Chairman Patrick Harker said rate cuts should be “methodical.” He agreed it’s time to cut rates, adding: “Just start the process and keep it moving.”

Boston’s Susan Collins expressed a similar sentiment on Thursday, noting that a “gradual, methodical pace” of cuts is likely appropriate.

Papers and Panels

At its core, the three-day conference is academic in nature. Economists presented four research papers, all of which related to the theme of ‘Reassessing the Effectiveness and Transmission of Monetary Policy’.

Perhaps most relevant to the current economic moment — given the increasing focus on jobs — was research by Pierpaolo Benigno of the University of Bern and Brown University professor Gauti Eggertsson. They concluded that a slowdown in the labor market is approaching a tipping point, with further slowdowns likely to produce much larger increases in the U.S. unemployment rate.

In a panel discussion on Saturday with Brazilian Roberto Campos Neto and Ida Wolden Bache of Norges Bank, ECB chief economist Philip Lane said a return to 2% inflation was “not yet a certainty”. Campos Neto, meanwhile, said a tight labor market had made the task of taming inflation a challenge.

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