Emergency services are warning that severe thunderstorms expected to move across much of the state on Sunday could bring hail large enough to break windows and strong wind gusts.

Thunderstorms are expected across central Victoria and Melbourne’s northern suburbs from Sunday afternoon, with the front reaching the city in the early evening.

On Sunday morning, temperatures reached an unusually high 23 degrees in places like Avalon.

Damaged winds of up to 90km/h are possible in Melbourne’s north, with a slight risk of devastating 125km/h gusts accompanying the cold front. Rainfall amounts of between two and 10mm are forecast for Melbourne.

Victoria’s alpine regions have been put on alert as the Bureau of Meteorology predicts wind gusts of around 90km/h (56mph) in the towns of Mount Hotham, Mount Buller and Falls Creek on Sunday evening.

Bureau senior meteorologist Bri Macpherson said large hail could fall across Victoria, with a small chance of giant hailstones wider than 4 centimetres in the state’s north.

“We could see the thunderstorms developing ahead of the front that came through. We usually expect them around mid-afternoon,” she said.

“We have pretty warm conditions for this time of year… we have warm, moist air above us at the moment, and then a cold front comes through and kicks it up, lifts it up and helps generate those thunderstorms.