This offseason in Pittsburgh brought a lot of change. A trio of quarterbacks went out the door (Kenny Pickett, Mitch Trubisky and Mason Rudolph) and a new trio came in (Russell Wilson, Justin Fields and Kyle Allen). Additionally, the Pittsburgh Steelers bolstered their defense in free agency with the signings of LB Patrick Queen and S DeShon Elliott and bolstered their offensive line in the draft with the signing of highly touted tackle Troy Fautanu.

Despite being in a loaded AFC and having an odd quarterback situation with Wilson and Fields both looking to return to the Steelers, NFL bettors are loving Pittsburgh. Sam Panayotovich of FOX Sports spoke with Casey Degnon, the risk manager at Westgate Super Book, and he said the Steelers are the sportsbook’s biggest liability.

“We have more tickets for the Steelers to win the AFC than any other team,” Degnon told Panayotovich. “Bettors seem to love them every year, but it’s even more than usual. They don’t even care who the quarterback is. Last year, we wrote a ton of money on the Steelers with Kenny Pickett as the starter. We put out the conference markets a week before the Super Bowl. Pittsburgh opened at 40-1 and we wrote bets right away. We kept lowering it and even took some pops at 25-1. I think they’re betting on the Russell Wilson and Justin Fields revenge tour.”

Under head coach Mike Tomlin, the Steelers are always in contention at the end of the regular season, making them a reasonable bet, even though they haven’t won a playoff game since January 2017. Once you’re in the playoffs, anything can happen. However, the fact that people were betting on the Steelers to win the AFC as soon as the markets opened is insane. Pittsburgh snuck into the playoffs last season, and the quarterback position looked bleak in the offseason. With what was shaping up to be a battle between Pickett and Rudolph, the ceiling was very limited.

With Wilson and Fields, the ceiling is much higher, simply because they have more raw talent than either Pickett or Rudolph. The question is, can they do it together? The offense hasn’t looked good in preseason play, and Wilson’s injury has limited his playing time in practice or the preseason. Still, he’s expected to be the starter this year.

At 25-1 odds, you’d make $250 if you bet $10 if the Steelers win the AFC. Can they? The defense should be great if it stays relatively healthy, but a lot depends on the offense. If Wilson can put together a stat line similar to last year’s, when he threw for 3,070 yards, 26 touchdowns and just eight interceptions, Pittsburgh has a shot at a conference title.

Pittsburgh’s biggest problem last season was a lack of scoring. If Wilson throws 26 touchdown passes, it would be welcomed with open arms by head coach Mike Tomlin and new offensive coordinator Arthur Smith, and it would certainly put the Steelers in playoff contention, as long as the team stays healthy.

It would be a disaster for sports betting if the Steelers were to beat the AFC.

“If the Steelers win the AFC, we’re down six figures,” Degnon said.

I don’t think the sportsbooks have much to worry about. Even with an improved offense and a healthy defense that should dominate, I have a hard time seeing Pittsburgh beat the Kansas City Chiefs. While I can’t guarantee that the Steelers will have to beat the Chiefs to win the AFC, it’s hard to imagine that if the Steelers win the AFC, they won’t have to face Kansas City at some point. And we all know how dominant the Chiefs are.

Plus, QB Patrick Mahomes is terrorizing Pittsburgh. In three games against the Steelers (including a win in the 2021 Wild Card game), Mahomes has thrown for 988 yards, 14 touchdowns, and one interception. Those are video game numbers, and I have zero confidence that will change.

For Steelers fans and bettors, the hope is that Wilson can have a career revival, the defense can stay healthy, and Mahomes and the Chiefs can be knocked out of the playoffs before the Steelers have to face them. If all of that happens, sportsbooks could be in big trouble.