Warm and humid conditions combined with a few upper air disturbances could produce a few short segmented lines of severe thunderstorms. Here is what the severe storm scenario should look like in Michigan over the next two days.

Let’s start with the big picture and the easy part. The extreme weather experts at NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center are pretty good at outlining the area where severe thunderstorms can occur. They have an area mapped out for tonight, but I don’t think we’ll get any severe storms in Michigan until morning. They also have an area mapped out for Tuesday and then Wednesday.

Thunderstorms hit all of Lower Michigan on Tuesday, with a 15 to 29 percent chance of strong wind gusts at the start of a thunderstorm.

Also in the northern half of Lower Michigan, the chance of a single tornado is two percent.

It is still a bit uncertain whether severe weather will occur Wednesday night. Severe thunderstorms are expected to move out of southeastern Lower Michigan Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. We should watch the Lansing, Flint, Ann Arbor and Detroit areas Wednesday morning.

Here is a radar forecast that I think gives the right scenario. A line of thunderstorms tonight in Wisconsin will blow through northern Lower Michigan Tuesday morning and move into the Saginaw Bay area and the Thumb Tuesday afternoon. Remember, severe thunderstorms often weaken in the middle of the day. On the other hand, we don’t often have as much juice in the air as we did on Tuesday.

Then, another line of severe storms will form late Tuesday afternoon in southern Wisconsin and move across southern Lower Michigan. That line of storms could weaken Tuesday night. Then, a final line of thunderstorms could move through southeastern Lower Michigan on Wednesday.

The two big pieces of a severe weather outbreak are only half there. There is extreme instability due to high temperatures and high humidity. There is not much dynamics for severe storms. Dynamics are strong winds at higher altitudes that can really blow around in a thunderstorm.

So I wouldn’t call this a high probability of widespread severe storms. However, I have seen thunderstorms that have been stronger than expected based on high heat and humidity alone.

Let’s keep an eye on the storm lines here.