Welcome back to The Friday Pick-Six!

Every week I pick five games, against the spread or over/under, plus one outright Upset De Jour.

I finished the 2023 regular season 35-28-2 ATS and 6-7 in my weekly upset specials.

Again, I’ll be keeping track of the betting and you can decide to fade or tail the picks (for entertainment purposes only!). Week 0 only had four games, but now we can dive into a huge list for week 1.

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College football opening weekend is always tough from a betting perspective. We don’t really know much about these teams, and yet it’s tough to find much value on many of the lines because they’ve been out of action for months.

There are only three ranking games over Labor Day weekend, plus a few other very tasty power conference events.

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Let’s make some choices.

(All point distributions courtesy of FanDuel).

Drew Allar had one of the best games of his career against West Virginia in 2023, throwing for over 300 yards with three touchdowns. It was the only game this season in which the Nittany Lions were truly explosive (11.2 yards per attempt) through the air. Can the junior repeat that success with a new, highly touted offensive coordinator (Andy Koltinicki) visiting?

Morgantown is going to be on fire at noon, and Neal Brown’s team was 5-1 at home last season. The Mountaineers have plenty of funky offensive firepower (quarterback Garrett Greeneh-back CJ Donaldsonspeed devil Jahiem White) in the backfield to frustrate Penn State’s starting seven, who are breaking in several new players into a new system.

However, I am going against the grain here, because although James Franklin can’t beat a Top 10 team, he’s one of the best coaches in the sport as an ATS favorite. PSU notably scored a late touchdown in this game last season to cover the spread. And yet I’m counting on WVU to sneak in a reverse-style backdoor cover this time around.

THE CHOICE: WVU +8.5

No. 14 Clemson vs. no. 1 Georgia (-13.5, O/U 48.5 )

This spread is indicative of the divergent directions of how these two programs will be viewed in 2024. Just three seasons ago, the Tigers were a 3-point favorite in this matchup (Charlotte vs. Atlanta). Now, Dabo Swinneys team is a near two-touchdown underdog because Clemson hasn’t recruited well, refuses to plug holes in its roster through the transfer portal and has a big question mark at quarterback. Georgia, on the other hand, hasn’t lost a regular-season game in three years and just brought in another No. 1 recruiting class.

Cade Club has been brutal outside of Death Valley, averaging just 6.1 yards per attempt with eight interceptions to just five touchdowns in seven road/neutral site starts. Will Klubnik show much growth in his second season as a starter against the best defense Clemson will face this season? I’m skeptical.

The Bulldogs will be short on players at the running back position, with the likely suspension of Trevor EtienneBut Carson Beck and a top-notch offensive line should still find success against a salty Clemson defense. Outside of the QB, the Tigers have a championship-caliber starting 22, but their lack of depth and offensive fire will show in the second half, when the Bulldogs target pythons and boa constrictors on their way to a double-digit victory.

THE CHOICE: Georgia -13.5

The Wolverines can physically beat up at least nine of the 12 teams on their schedule, including a Fresno State offense that abruptly parted ways with head coach and play-caller Jeff Tedford in mid-July.

But although I have small questions about Kenneth Grant, Mason Graham and the rest of a nasty Michigan defense, what will we see from UM’s new offense? Alex Orji is considered the favorite to start Saturday, but multiple quarterbacks are expected. Will Sherrone Moore try to get Orji or Davis Warren Are they in a groove, building confidence for a big Week 2 showdown with Texas? Or will the first-year head coach simply blow the game on a bunch of runs from Donovan Edwards and not show much of his cards?

The Bulldogs defense is considered the better of their team’s two units. Given my uncertainty about Michigan’s offense, I’ll go with the better one.

THE CHOICE: Under 46.5

On Monday I was expecting Texas A&M heads-up against Andy Staples on his show, but the deeper I dig into this matchup the more optimistic I become about the overall. Irish quarterback Riley Leonard takes on his former head coach in Mike Elkoso there is familiarity on both sides. Who has the upper hand?

Led by Purdue transfer Nic Scourton, Texas A&M has arguably the best defensive line in the SEC, and they’re up against a starting offensive line that has made six starts in total. Conversely, the Irish defensive line is also a Top 10 unit nationally, and their secondary features multiple All-Americans.

I’m still leaning towards TAMU at home (although Kyle Field is overrated in terms of perceived advantage as the Aggies are 3-10 against Top 10 teams at home since 2000), but this game has his rock fight written all over it. Slow pace. Concerns about playmakers for teams, and two ex-DCs as head coaches.

THE CHOICE: Under 46.5

No. 13 LSU (-4.5, O/U 63.5) vs. No. 23 U.S.C

This is the real Spiderman meme, but in CFB form: two third-year head coaches at top-tier programs with big-arm quarterbacks and a completely revamped defensive staff.

Given the Tigers’ recent success — both on the field and in recruiting — Lincoln Rileys Trojans are basically budget LSU. With Miller’s Moss Now QB1, Riley must rebound from last season’s 7-5 campaign, which saw USC break the brilliant era of Caleb Williams.

But there is more pressure on Brian Kelly in this game. He can’t lose a standalone opener for the third year in a row — as a favorite in all three games. I have concerns about LSU’s secondary against USC’s air attack, but Garrett Nussmeier can win a shootout playing behind one of the best offensive lines in the country (and by far the best unit in this game).

THE CHOICE: LSU -4.5

MY OUTRAGE TODAY

No. 19 Miami bee Florida (+2.5, O/U 54)

Come Saturday night around 7pm and one of these two fanbases will be furious. So go ahead and open a tab with Message Board Geniuses and witness all the fire and damnation you can imagine.

This match has been dissected to death, with so many stories surrounding each head coach. Both Mario Cristóbal And Billy Napier must absolutely win on Saturday — but there can only be one. Cristobal has the most talented squad and recently hired a time management assistant (only 10 years too late!). Meanwhile, Napier is convinced this is his best team yet and his mid-season staff changes should yield better results.

I still expect this Sunshine State to feature all sorts of nonsense and stupidity from both teams. Give me the Gators. They’ve been told for nine months that they stink and that 2024 is a hopeless season. They’re steamrolling toward a sloppy, messy surprise in The Swamp.

THE CHOICE: Florida ML