Two teams desperate for a win collide tonight in Sin City as the Atlanta Dream visit the Las Vegas Aces.

Despite the recent setback for the two-time reigning champions, Vegas is still a 10.5-point favorite. But my prediction for the Dream vs. Aces is that the Dream will be more desperate.

Find out why I’m rooting for the underdogs with Friday’s WNBA picks.

Dream vs Aces Predictions

My best chance
Dream +10.5 (-112 at FanDuel)

My analysis
The situation is not yet critical for the Atlanta Dream, who are just one game behind the Chicago Sky in the battle for the eighth and final spot in the league’s play-offs.

The Dream haven’t been all that bad lately, with all three losses in their current streak coming by five points or less. But their defense, which allowed just 71.3 points per game in three wins since the Olympics, has been up to 80 points in the last three games.

Considering Atlanta is the lowest scoring team in the W at 76.1 points per game, they are unable to overcome defensive issues. Fortunately, the Dream catch a Las Vegas Aces team that is not at its best, having won just two of their last seven games.

The Aces’ last game was a 93-90 loss to the bottom-ranked Stars in Dallas, throwing away a 42-point victory by A’ja Wilson, who likely would have won the WNBA MVP award.

Scoring isn’t the problem for Vegas: It leads the league in points per game, with 87 points per game. But it loses on the defensive end. Of their five recent losses, the Aces have allowed at least 93 points in three games, and have averaged 90 points per game.

Vegas dominated the head-to-head matchups, winning eight of the last 10 games, but Atlanta was the betting favorite, going 7-3-0 against the spread in those games.

The Aces are still playing for something: They’re just one game behind Seattle for fourth place in the standings and have home-field advantage in the first round of the playoffs.

But the stakes are higher for the Dream, who remain within reach in most games. They are 4-1-1 ATS since the break, and are worth a bet on the road, having gone 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight away games.

Dream vs Aces parlay for the same match (SGP)

Dream +10.5

A’ja Wilson More than 27.5 points

Allisha Gray More than 2.5 made threes

Wilson’s 42 points were her best performance of the season and one of the few times she has delivered such a huge performance since the Olympic break.

She has surpassed her 27.5 point total twice in the last six games. That said, Wilson is still averaging 26.5 points on 61.5% shooting. She has also been a wrecking ball against Atlanta, crossing the line in both games.

The difference is in the number of shots: Wilson has taken more than 23 attempts on goal in both games against Atlanta. She has surpassed that number once in the last six games.

Allisha Gray has been on a roll lately, hitting at least three triples in three of her last four matches, narrowly missing a fourth match.

She’s shooting 44 percent from downtown during this span, up from her season-high 35.6 percent hit rate. Gray also went a season-best 6-for-7 against Vegas in the first matchup.

The Aces have the second-worst 3-point field goal defense in the league, with teams converting on 36.3% of their attempts. I think Gray will take advantage of that on Friday.

Learn how to bet on a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Chances Dream vs Aces

Dream vs Aces live odds

Check out the latest Dream vs Aces WNBA odds for tonight.

Dream vs Aces opening chances

• Distribution: Atlanta +10.5 (-112) | Las Vegas -10.5 (-108)
• Moneyline: Atlanta +470 | Las Vegas-700
• Over/Under: More than 165.5 (-110) | Less than 165.5 (-110)

Dream vs Aces spread and Over/Under analysis

• Atlanta has a 4-10 away record this season.
• Vegas is 0-9-0 against the spread in its last nine games.
• The Under has won four of the last five meetings.
• The Aces have a 7-3-0 Under record in their last 10 games.

Dream vs Aces trend

Atlanta is 6-2-2 ATS in their last 10 games. Find more WNBA betting trends for Dream vs. Aces.

Dream vs Aces game information

Dream vs Aces latest injuries

Dream: Cheyenne Parker-Tyus F (out); Aerial Powers G (out).
Aces: No.
Check out our latest WNBA injury reports.

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