Thanks to conference realignment, it will now be an SEC vs. ACC game, but this is still the second home-and-away game between Auburn and Cal in college football’s Week 2 series on Saturday.

After a lackluster offense last season, Auburn got a taste of Hugh Freeze’s recruiting efforts as Payton Thorne and a group of top receivers threw for 628 yards and 73 points in the season opener against Alabama A&M.

Penn State transfer KeAndre Lambert Smith scored twice, while Perry Thompson and Cam Coleman each scored once and Auburn averaged 25 yards per catch.

There are some concerns about Cal running back Jaydn Ott’s participation in Saturday’s game after he suffered a lower-body injury in the season opener. However, head coach Justin Wilcox said his most important player will “probably” play against Auburn, a good sign for the Golden Bears.

What can we expect from the matchup? For that, let’s take a look at the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Auburn and Cal stack up heading into college football’s Week 2 matchup.

The simulations show the Tigers holding serve at Jordan-Hare against the ACC challenger.

SP+ predicts Auburn to defeat Cal by a projected score of 36-21 and win the game by a projected 14.8 points.

According to the model, Auburn has an 82 percent chance of an outright win, regardless of the margin.

SP+ is a “pace- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most enduring and predictable aspects of football.”

According to FanDuel Sportsbook, Auburn is a 12.5-point favorite against California. The total was set at 53.5 points before the game.

FanDuel puts the moneyline odds for Auburn at -465 and for Cal at +350.

If you use this projection to bet on the match, you should consider…

Other analytical models also predict the Tigers will win at home this week.

This includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times and determine winners.

Auburn is projected to win the game in a whopping 81.4 percent of computer simulations, while Cal is projected to win in the remaining 18.6 percent of simulations.

The index predicts that Auburn will be 9.8 points better than Cal on the same field and with the current composition of both teams. This is not enough to cover this margin.

According to the computer’s calculations, Auburn will win 7.4 games this season, with a 16.8 percent chance of reaching the College Football Playoff.

Cal is projected to win 6.3 games this season based on the index, giving the Golden Bears a 65.4 percent chance of qualifying for a bowl.

When: Sat, Sept 7
Time: 2:30pm CT, 12:30pm PT
TV: ESPN2 Network

The odds of winning are updated periodically and may change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and needs help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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