We’re headed into the first weekend of the 2024 NFL season and we’re sure you are fully prepared for the loaded slate. But just in case you need some last-minute intel, our NFL analysts have you covered at the 11th hour.

First, analytics writer Seth Walder breaks down five stat trends that could be pivotal this weekend. Fantasy football writer Eric Moody runs through five players who are rostered in fewer than 50% of ESPN fantasy football leagues as of Saturday who could be picked up and started in a jam this weekend. That’s followed by NFL analyst Matt Bowen making five predictions about how things could play out, including some player props, and NFL analyst Ben Solak picking out one potential bet to consider. Finally, insider Jeremy Fowler gives the latest buzz, rumors and news you might have missed.

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Stat trends | Fantasy sleepers
Predictions | Intriguing bet | Latest buzz

Walder: Five key stat trends that could determine Week 1 winners

Can Dave Canales and the Panthers unlock WR Diontae Johnson’s ceiling?

When we released ESPN’s receiver tracking metrics a couple of years ago, one of our first observations was that the leaderboard for open score was littered with superstars … and Johnson. In 2021, the then-Steelers wideout recorded an 87 open score (fourth highest among wide receivers). The next season he followed it up with a 99, the highest possible score. Even in a “down” 2023 season, Johnson still ranked 11th with a 78.

Is there something about the scheme and/or quarterbacks in Pittsburgh that held back his production? Will Carolina bring down Johnson’s very high rate of deep fades and go routes (18% combined, ninth highest among wide receivers) to increase his efficiency? Week 1 will be a good test against a strong Saints cornerback duo of Paulson Adebo and Marshon Lattimore (assuming he has recovered from a hip flexor injury that caused him to miss much of the summer).

Will Washington’s personnel force coach Dan Quinn to adapt his coverages against the Buccaneers?

The Cowboys ran Cover 1 defense 46% of the time last season, more than any team ran any coverage in 2023. In Dallas, Quinn had the pass rush and the cornerbacks to make that work. In Washington? I’m not so sure.

Dorance Armstrong was a nice pickup for the Commanders, but he’s no Micah Parsons. And the cornerbacks are a much bigger issue. Last season, Michael Davis (then with the Chargers) and Benjamin St-Juste ranked fourth worst and fifth worst in yards per coverage snap allowed at 1.8 and 1.7, respectively, per NFL Next Gen Stats. Leaving them alone with single-high coverage so frequently seems like a dangerous plan against Mike Evans and Chris Godwin.

Are the Raiders well-equipped to stop a run-first Chargers attack?

Their defensive line certainly is. Las Vegas ranked eighth in run stop win rate in 2023 and then added Christian Wilkins in free agency. Wilkins is coming off a down year in terms of RSWR, but he ranked first among interior linemen in 2022 (46%). He’ll also join a line that already includes Maxx Crosby, who ranked first in RSWR among edge rushers last season (part of the reason he almost never leaves the field), and Malcolm Koonce, who would have ranked in the top five at the position if he played enough to qualify.

Of course, stopping the run is only part of the battle against the Chargers with Justin Herbert at quarterback (albeit with a lack of playmakers). But the expectation heading into the season is that a Jim Harbaugh/Greg Roman offense will heavily feature the ground game.

Will New Orleans offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak make things easier for quarterback Derek Carr against the Panthers?

The Saints’ offense didn’t make life easy for Carr last season. New Orleans ranked dead last in play-action rate (13%), 25th in designed rollouts (4%) and 26th in motion at the snap (14%). Those are all levers that can help the quarterback, and it was especially egregious to avoid play-action and rollouts when the team’s offensive line was so bad (as it likely will be again). Kubiak was the passing game coordinator with the 49ers last season, and San Francisco unsurprisingly ranked higher in all three of those categories than New Orleans.

Not that the Saints need any more justification to help Carr out, but the Panthers’ defense ranked 29th in EPA per dropback allowed against play-action last season (and 12th best when not facing play-action).

Can the post-Aaron Donald Rams get pressure on Lions quarterback Jared Goff?

While Kobie Turner is a solid defensive tackle, and the Rams invested in their defensive line with their first two picks of the draft (Jared Verse and Braden Fiske), they face a rough opening test against a mighty Lions offensive line. Detroit has one of the best tackle combinations in terms of pass protection with Penei Sewell and Taylor Decker (sixth and seventh in pass block win rate at the position last season, respectively).

Last year, center Frank Ragnow was a second-team All-Pro and guard Kevin Zeitler was still going strong in Baltimore. If anyone is the weakness, it’s probably Graham Glasgow, and he was still average in PBWR last season. If I’m making a bold prediction here, it’s that the Rams won’t sack Goff at all.

Moody: Five fantasy sleepers you need to pick up — and can start this week

Rashid Shaheed, WR, New Orleans Saints (44.2% rostered)

With Michael Thomas gone, Shaheed’s target share should go up as the No. 2 receiver behind Chris Olave. Last season, Shaheed had the sixth-highest average depth of target among wide receivers (14.4 yards) and was super-efficient, catching 61.3% of his 75 targets. The Panthers’ defense struggled last season, ranking near the bottom in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers. That trend should continue in 2024.

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Are fantasy managers overlooking Rashid Shaheed?

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Jaleel McLaughlin, RB, Denver Broncos (43.3% rostered)

Denver coach Sean Payton has a strong track record with fantasy-relevant running backs, even in committee situations. McLaughlin showed his explosiveness when he stepped in for Javonte Williams, racking up 37.3 points combined in Weeks 4-5 last season. With Samaje Perine gone, he’ll take over the third-down role. It would be smart for the Broncos to lean on the running game in Bo Nix’s first start, especially against a Seahawks defense that struggled against running backs last season.

Tyler Conklin, TE, New York Jets (40.4% rostered)

Conklin finished last season with a career-high 621 receiving yards and 10.2 yards per reception. He also had 87 targets, the most of any player without a touchdown. While he might see fewer targets in 2024 with Mike Williams joining the Jets, the quality of those targets will improve with Aaron Rodgers at quarterback. Don’t sleep on Conklin if you need tight end help.

Joshua Palmer, WR, Los Angeles Chargers (38.8% rostered)

The Chargers are expected to be run-heavy under new offensive coordinator Greg Roman. That said, Roman’s offenses still averaged 496 pass attempts during his last four seasons with the Ravens. Someone has to get those targets, and Palmer should see a big share, especially with Keenan Allen and Mike Williams no longer on the team after injury-riddled 2023 seasons. Palmer averaged 7.3 targets per game in three games played without Allen and Williams last season.

Matthew Stafford, QB, Los Angeles Rams (35.4% rostered)

The Lions revamped their secondary this offseason after allowing the sixth-most fantasy points per game to QBs in 2023. Still, it’s a great spot to start Stafford with Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp as his top targets for what is expected to be a high-scoring game — especially in superflex leagues. Stafford averaged 20.3 fantasy points per game in Weeks 12-18 last season, the fifth most at the position in that span.

Bowen: Five sneaky predictions for Sunday’s action

Rome Odunze will catch a touchdown in his pro debut

Odunze and fellow Bears rookie Caleb Williams will see a lot of late movement and disguise from the Titans’ defense and new coordinator Dennard Wilson. And Tennessee upgraded the secondary on the perimeter, too. But I like Odunze — on a schemed shot play or an isolation throw from Williams — to find the end zone. In his final college season at Washington, Odunze tied the national lead with 24 contested catch receptions. He can climb the ladder and go get it.

Charvarius Ward will intercept an Aaron Rodgers pass on Monday night

Ward’s four interceptions last season tied for fourth most in the league. The 49ers cornerback has the physical coverage traits to match in man coverage, but I think he’ll get one while playing zone coverage on Monday against the Jets. Look for Ward to bait Rodgers as a flat defender in Cover 2, sinking to depth to make a play on the ball.

Chase Brown will have more than 25 receiving yards against the Patriots

Brown has the receiving skills to work as an underneath outlet for Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow, plus he can produce in the screen game. Last season, Brown averaged 14.4 yards per reception on screens, using his open-field vision to beat defensive pursuit angles after the catch. Brown can play a key role for the Bengals on third down this week.

Gus Edwards will run for a TD against the Raiders

Edwards rushed for 13 touchdowns last season in Baltimore, with 12 of those scores coming on carries inside the opponent’s 5-yard line. When the Chargers get the ball in scoring position Sunday against the Raiders, I expect Edwards to be aligned in an old-school I-formation set, running downhill on a north-south track for the end zone. He’s an easy fit for Jim Harbaugh’s power run game in short yardage and goal-line situations.

Bo Nix will rush for more than 25 yards against the Seahawks

Throughout the preseason, we saw Nix get outside of the pocket to move the sticks as a runner. And the Broncos sprinkled in some designed carries for their quarterback, too. Nix brings an added element to Sean Payton’s offense with his dual-threat ability, which will be reflected in the game plan versus Seattle.

Solak: One intriguing bet for this week’s games

Aaron Rodgers under 224.5 passing yards (+115)

I’m favoring the Rodgers passing UNDER out of concern for a forced pass-heavy game script from Rodgers and offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett. Rodgers is given a lot of control at the line of scrimmage, as many of the playcalls in this offense package a run play with a pass play. If Rodgers so chooses, he can take some volume out of running back Breece Hall’s game.

But I don’t think Rodgers can push the ball downfield. His completion percentage on downfield shots has gone down in both the 2021 and 2022 seasons, and his off-target rate climbed accordingly. This was before an Achilles injury that will likely sap some of his throw power and certainly limit his ability to scramble and extend plays. Rodgers has also had some terrible season openers after sitting entire preseasons, as he did this year. And remember that he’s now 40 years old and coming off major surgery.

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Fowler: What I’m hearing as we near kickoff

The Cowboys are trying to sign Dak Prescott before Sunday’s kickoff in Cleveland. One source said Dallas is “working away” at it. Both sides appear to be huddling up and seeing what’s possible. It’s not a slam dunk that something gets done, but there’s a chance — even though I’m told there remains a sizable gap in terms. The ultimate wild card is the fact that Prescott is not afraid of free agency and the considerable leverage he would hold in March. He seemed destined to head there as of early this week, but deadlines spur action, and the Cowboys do find ways to pay stars — even if it’s on a slower clock than most.

The Steelers are going to involve Russell Wilson (questionable, calf) in Saturday’s walk-through and see how much he can handle. That will help inform Steelers coaches on whether he will play Sunday vs. Atlanta. But Justin Fields got significant work in Thursday and Friday practices, so he has been prepared to play. Wilson’s injury is not considered serious, so the Steelers will give him Saturday to see how he responds. It’s not a huge issue to them if he sits a week.

People with the Bengals have felt for the better part of a week that Ja’Marr Chase and Cincinnati have a good chance to land an extension and are fairly close. But clearly more work is necessary. My sense originally was that Chase would land somewhere between CeeDee Lamb ($34 million per year) and Justin Jefferson ($35 million per year), but after hearing Chase address the media Friday, he sounds interested in outpacing them both. The guaranteed money looms large here.

I’m told the Saints and running back Alvin Kamara will not be reaching a new contract by Week 1. Kamara missed a minicamp day in June because of lack of progress on a new deal. He has two years left on a deal that pays him $11.8 million in 2024 cash and $25 million in 2025, the latter of which is not tenable for either side. So this could be a situation where Kamara plays the season out, then both sides make a decision on the future. Kamara is set to put up big numbers in Klint Kubiak’s offense, an iteration of the San Francisco system that catapulted Christian McCaffrey into a new stratosphere.