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Top picks from the CFB betting splits for UNLV-Kansas and Arizona-Kansas State
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Top picks from the CFB betting splits for UNLV-Kansas and Arizona-Kansas State

Tonight is Friday Night Lights in College Football with a couple of primetime games to watch. Let’s take a look at where the smart money is going with the help of our VSiN Betting Splits, which come straight from DraftKings and are updated every 10 minutes.

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UNLV (2-0) is coming off a resounding 72-14 win over Utah Tech, and comfortably covers as a 41.5-point home favorite. Meanwhile, Kansas (1-1) narrowly lost to Illinois 23-17, and lost outright as a 5-point away favorite.

This line opened with Kansas listed as a 7-point home favorite. Early money hammered Kansas by laying the chalk, sending the Jayhawks from -7 to -9.5. However, we are starting to see some buy-low buyback on UNLV as a blown roaddog as some shops are pushing UNLV +9.5 to -115, indicating a potential high and resistance point. Some shops have even dropped to UNLV +9. The crowd is split with about 50% of the spread bets going to each side. However, UNLV is only receiving 48% of the spread bets but 69% of the spread dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp betting discrepancy.

The total opened at 57.5 and remains at 57.5. However, a closer look at the line history shows that the total has been as high as 59 throughout the week before dropping back down to 57.5. Essentially, we see a sly sharp liability on the over, as the total has only ever stayed the same or increased, never dropping below the opening number. The over is receiving 67% of bets and 78% of dollars, indicating modest public support but also respected sharp play. UNLV is averaging 50 PPG on offense, while Kansas is averaging 32.5 PPG. These two teams met in a bowl game last season, with Kansas winning 49-36.

Arizona (2-0, 20th) swept Northern Arizona 22-10 last week, but could not cover as a home favorite with 37.5 points. Kansas State (2-0, 14th) just beat Tulane 34-27, but could not cover as a away favorite with 9 points.

This line opened with Kansas State as a 7.5 point home favorite. The public sees two ranked teams with a large touchdown spread and leans toward Arizona plus the points. With 58% of the spread bets and 54% of the spread dollars taking Arizona, we have seen the line drop from +7.5 to +7 in favor of the road dog. It will be interesting to see which direction this line moves from now, either down to 6.5 or back up to 7.5. Kansas State would qualify as a “fade the trendy dog” contrarian favorite, receiving just 42% of the spread bets in a heavily held primetime game. When two ranked teams face off, the home favorite is 113-75 ATS (60%) with a 16% ROI since 2016. Friday night home favorites by 7 points or more are 91-74 ATS (55%) with a 6% ROI since 2015.

Wiseguys expects a high-scoring game and has hammered the over, pushing the total from 56.5 to 60.5. Some outlets are pushing the over 60.5 to -115, indicating a possible further increase to 61. The over receives 68% of bets and 78% of dollars, a stark discrepancy between “low bets, higher dollars.” Arizona averages 41.5 PPG on offense. Kansas State averages 37.5. When the total goes up by at least three points on Friday night, the over is 68-50 (58%) with an 11% ROI since 2005.