Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Flyweight Rivals Alexa Grasso in return for Valentina Shevchenko will compete again this weekend (Sat., Sep 14, 2024) at UFC 306 inside The Sphere in Las Vegas, Nevada.

The flyweight title picture is a strange one at the moment, held up by the third straight fight between these two champions. Even the fights themselves have been a little strange. Nine rounds into this rivalry, “Bullet” has won more rounds than her opponent, but she’s also soaking up the biggest blows and landing in the worst positions. Perhaps that’s just the reality of age catching up with the lifelong fighter, while Grasso is undoubtedly at her peak and firing on all cylinders.

Regardless of the outcome, this should be the last direct match between these two. There are too many worthy contenders lining up, a problem the Flyweight division has never seen before! Manon Fiorot has secured a title shot, but Rose Namajunas, Maycee Barber and Natalia Silva are making a strong case that the division is ready to move on.

So that’s for all the marbles. Let’s take a closer look at the odds and strategic keys for each athlete:

Photo by WWE/Getty Images

Grasso vs. Shevchenko Betting Odds

• Alexa Grasso win: -135
• Alexa Grasso via TKO/KO/DQ: +700
• Alexa Grasso via submission: +350
• Alexa Grasso via decision: +200
• Valentina Shevchenko’s win: +114
• Valentina Shevchenko via TKO/KO/DQ: +900
• Valentina Shevchenko via submission: +1100
• Valentina Shevchenko via decision: +180
• Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

How Grasso Wins

Grasso is a boxer with a solid pop in her hands. Over the years, her grappling and wrestling skills have grown immensely, resulting in an all-around champion who can finish on the floor or standing up.

After nearly 45 minutes of split fighting, we know how Grasso wins this fight. She has proven to be an excellent at taking advantage of Shevchenko’s mistakes and riskier techniques, particularly the spinning back kick and headlock throw. Even while losing more minutes of the fight, Grasso has landed the biggest punches and consistently put Shevchenko in more danger of being finished.

The best way to keep creating such moments is to keep pressure on. Grasso can’t wade recklessly through the counter puncher’s attacks, but she does have a tendency to land harder in extended exchanges. If Grasso is methodical and consistent in her advance while refusing to let Shevchenko keep the volume down, she’s likely to hit more often and hurt the former champion.

How Shevchenko Wins

Shevchenko is probably the best counter fighter in the history of women’s MMA. “Bullet” is precise in her range control, able to severely limit her opponent’s options at distance and force them to play her game.

As mentioned, Shevchenko has had a lot of success in these fights, it just comes down to avoiding mistakes and making good decisions. First of all, ditch the headlock toss! It’s a bad technique! I wrote a whole article about its drawbacks and risks, and Shevchenko continues to cost herself money by relying on it. The spinning back kick, on the other hand, is a great technique with many applications — Shevchenko just needs to make sure she uses it wisely.

Otherwise, the jab has always been Shevchenko’s best weapon. I’d like to see her focus on landing the jab more than once and finishing with powerful left leg strikes to the thigh, body, and head. If Shevchenko is in range to land her jab — which, again, has repeatedly knocked Grasso’s head back in these fights — she should be able to build up to it with hard kicks.

Jab, left kick and reset are great ways to control the dance and break Grasso.

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Grasso vs. Shevchenko Prediction

Overall, I think Shevchenko is the better fighter. Grasso is a good athlete in her prime, but there is nothing about her game that I find particularly special. But as we see time and time again in MMA, there is nothing more valuable than being a young, strong fighter with a lot of confidence.

I expect another close fight here, but smart money should definitely be on Grasso. Statistics and trends don’t lie: older fighters rarely do better in rematches. Every six months that passes is an advantage for Grasso and a disadvantage for Shevchenko. Grasso can theoretically still improve, while Shevchenko is far too deep into her combat sports career to adapt in any significant way.

If Shevchenko wins, it will be a great testament to her professionalism and work ethic in the later stages of her career. More likely, though, Shevchenko will still win a few rounds but still sustain a serious enough injury to retain the Mexican champion.

Prediction: Grasso via decision (+200)

LIVE! Watch UFC 306 PPV At The Sphere on ESPN+ here!

UFC NIGHT IN THE ATMOSPHERE! Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) will stage a one-of-a-kind pay-per-view (PPV) spectacle in honor of Mexican Independence Day during its Riyadh Season on Saturday, September 14, 2024, an unlikely mashup culminating in the Bantamweight main event between the reigning champion, Sean O’Malleyand sliced ​​and diced No. 1 contender Merab DvalishviliIn the championship co-headliner of UFC 306, the current holder of the Flyweight title, Alexa Grassowill settle her score with fellow Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 32 coach Valentina Shevchenko in the final fight of their epic 125-pound trilogy. UFC 306’s PPV main card (watch it here) will also feature Brian Ortega in return for Diego Lopes, Raul Rosas Jr. in return for Aoriqilengand much more! It’s a must-see action movie from “Sin City!” UFC 306’s start time is scheduled for 6:30pm ET (Preliminary round card) and 10:00 PM ET (PPV main card).

Don’t miss a single second of the epic action!

Remember that MMAmania.com will provide LIVE round-by-round, detailed coverage of the entire UFC 306 Fight Card right herestarting with the early ESPN+ Online ‘prelims’ matches, scheduled to begin 7:30pm ET (simulcast on ESPNews at 8:00 p.m. ET), prior to the start time of the pay-per-view (PPV) main card at 10:00 PM ET (also on ESPN+).

To view the latest and greatest UFC-306: News and notes on “O’Malley vs. Merab” Be sure to check out our extensive event archive here.