The opening week of the 2024 NFL season brought a lot of action — and overreaction. While some teams outperformed others in their season openers, the Lombardi Trophy won’t be hoisted in Week 1. Ultimately, the championship will be won by the team that demonstrates endurance and consistency during the grueling journey to Super Bowl LIX in New Orleans. The early stages of the season are still testing out their schemes, integrating new players and establishing their identities.

Regardless, there’s still plenty of insight to be gleaned from the decisions made and results achieved in Week 1. This season, opening week provided insight into questions lingering around quarterbacks across the league, clearing up some doubts while reinforcing others.

There was a significant amount of turnover at quarterback this offseason. Along with a handful of veteran quarterbacks switching teams in free agency, teams selected a record number of quarterbacks at the top of the 2024 NFL Draft. So far, many of their debuts haven’t gone as hoped.

There’s a lot of context to be gained from the average yards each quarterback travels per attempt. This is the average distance a pass travels before it’s caught by its intended target.

Air yards per attempt can be an indicator of a struggling quarterback, but they can also go a long way in predicting how dynamic an offense might be. Coaches who don’t trust their quarterbacks or offenses that don’t have enough weapons can struggle to push the ball downfield. In Week 1, many of the quarterbacks who struggled were also the ones who produced the fewest air yards per attempt.

If air yards can predict future success, some teams could be poised to make a postseason run regardless of the outcome of their Week 1 game. Here’s a look at what the NFL standings would look like if they were sorted by air yards per attempt after the first game of the season.

* denotes division winner
^ denotes wild card team

The AFC South had a blast running the ball deep in Week 1, with three of the four teams making it to these hypothetical playoffs. In some cases, these postseason positions don’t seem so far-fetched — Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen and C.J. Stroud are all expected to make deep postseason runs. In other cases, like the Las Vegas Raiders and Gardner Minshew, things don’t seem so realistic.

Only five AFC quarterbacks averaged 5.0 or more air yards per attempt in Week 1. Indianapolis Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson led the league, but he was the only quarterback with at least 5 air yards per attempt who did not record a win in Week 1. Richardson’s 163 total air yards ranked third behind Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud (172) and San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy (167). He also posted a subpar completion rate, completing just nine of 19 pass attempts (47 percent). Trevor Lawrence and Justin Fields also averaged more than 5 air yards per attempt, but neither managed to top 200 passing yards, and only Stroud completed at least 20 pass attempts.

Mahomes’ 4.3 air yards per attempt were a product of the Kansas City Chiefs’ offensive scheme. With the addition of speedsters Xavier Worthy and Marquise Brown, the Chiefs offense focused on opening up short and intermediate passing lanes to allow receivers to make dynamic plays with the ball in their hands. Mahomes finished with 291 passing yards, but 171 of those came on the catch. In the same game, Lamar Jackson was forced to use the quick passing game due to pass protection issues.

One name stands out: Deshaun Watson. According to ESPN Analytics, the Cleveland Browns quarterback didn’t complete a single pass that traveled more than 5 air yards in the first two quarters. He completed just two of his 11 pass attempts that traveled more than 10 yards. The Browns may have to consider a quarterback change if things continue to trend this way.

* denotes division winner
^ denotes wild card team

Compared to the AFC, the NFC has a significant drop in air yards per attempt. Only six quarterbacks have thrown more than 4 air yards per attempt, compared to eight quarterbacks in the AFC. Five of those six NFC quarterbacks have led their teams to victories. Only Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love has more than 4 air yards per attempt, but he can’t lead his team to victory. Love completed just 50 percent of his passes in Green Bay’s loss in Brazil.

The NFC East seemed to focus on the short passing game — three of its teams were ranked in the bottom five. The Philadelphia Eagles led the division despite being ninth in the conference. Some quarterbacks and teams played well, but they either couldn’t pass the ball downfield or didn’t have to. Dak Prescott didn’t have to do much after the Dallas Cowboys jumped out to an early lead in a 33-17 loss to the Browns. New York Giants quarterback Daniel Jones had the worst performance in the division.

Some of the short passes were intentional. Coaches tend to get rookies into a rhythm with easy reads and quick throws in their first starts. The Chicago Bears and Washington Commanders both apparently followed that recipe with Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels, the top two picks in the 2024 NFL Draft.

Regardless of the opening week passing struggles, these quarterbacks and teams have plenty of time to turn things around. In 2023, the Eagles started the 2023 season with a 10-1 record, but then slumped the rest of the way. Meanwhile, the Chiefs went 9-6 through their final two regular season games and went on to win the Super Bowl.