Record: 85-62
Playoff odds: 100 percent
Strength of schedule: .509

Key series: Sept. 24-26 vs. Orioles

The American League East is the tightest division race in baseball, and this series looks like high noon, perhaps making the difference between the top seed in the AL — which comes with a wild-card bye — and rolling the dice in a best-of-three opening round. (Don’t sleep on the A’s, though. They have a winning record in the second half, and playing the Yankees could be their last meaningful chance to play spoiler.)

Cleveland Guardians

Record: 84-63
Playoff odds: 100 percent
Strength of schedule: .510

Key series: Sept. 16-19 vs. Twins

Assuming the Astros clinch the AL West in the next two weeks, a four-game series against the Twins might be the Guardians’ last matchup against a team that still has something to play for. The Guardians are 7-2 against the Twins this season, and they’ve built a solid AL Central lead that allows at least a little wiggle room (it’s also worth noting that the Twins play all but three of their remaining games at home).

Baltimore Orioles

Record: 83-64
Playoff odds: 99.6 percent
Strength of schedule: .518

Key series: Sept. 24-26 at Yankees

The Orioles are currently winning the season series against the Yankees, 6-4, but the two teams haven’t met since the weekend before the All-Star break. The Yankees took two of three games in that series and nearly swept before an Orioles walk-off in the finale. If Baltimore can’t take control of the AL East head-to-head against the Yankees, their final series could be a dangerous one on the road against a Twins team that could be fighting for its playoff life.

Kansas City Royals

Record: 80-67
Playoff odds: 92.9 percent
Strength of schedule: .493

Key series: Sept. 20-22 vs. Giants

The Royals have enough breathing room in the wild-card race that they can afford to lose the upcoming series against the Tigers as long as they take care of the relatively weak matchups that come before and after. (They’ll miss Paul Skenes in the Pirates series.) The Royals have been especially good at home this season, and the Giants have been especially bad on the road, creating ample opportunity in this three-game set.

Minnesota Twins

Record: 78-68
Playoff odds: 87.1 percent
Strength of schedule: .490

Key series: Sept. 20-22 at Red Sox

The division is an extreme longshot (2.7 percent likelihood) for the Twins, who instead need to focus on maintaining their grip on the final wild-card spot. Right now they’re being chased by the Tigers, Red Sox and Mariners, making this series against Boston a potentially vital matchup. If that series doesn’t go well, the following series against the Marlins offers some opportunity to make up ground against a lesser opponent before ending the season against the playoff-bound Orioles.

Houston Astros

Record: 78-68
Playoff odds: 93.9 percent
Strength of schedule: .478

Key series: Sept. 19-22 vs. Angels

The Astros have built a big enough divisional lead that they don’t necessarily have to worry about the Mariners’ approaching footsteps. If they can take advantage of seven remaining games against the last-place Angels — including four straight at home — they could lock down the AL West before the Mariners even come to town in the final week. They’ve so far split their eight games against the Angels, though.

Detroit Tigers

Record: 75-72
Playoff odds: 11.1 percent
Strength of schedule: .486

Key series: Sept. 16-18 at Royals

The Tigers were good in July, excellent in August, and have a winning record in September. They’ve climbed back in the hunt, though they’re still 3 1/2 games out of the wild card. The Tigers have beat up the White Sox this season (9-1), but the Royals have given them trouble (3-7), and they have yet to play the Orioles. If the Tigers are going to stay relevant, they’ll need to beat a couple of good teams before finishing with a relatively easy home stand.

Seattle Mariners

Record: 74-73
Playoff odds: 8.6 percent
Strength of schedule: .531

Key series: Sept. 23-25 at Astros

The Mariners would need to jump and fend off three different teams in the wild-card race, and so their odds of winning the division (6.9 percent) are far better than that of clinching a wild-card berth (1.3 percent). It’s a tall task, but they’ve owned the Rangers so far this season, going 5-1, and then there’s a great opportunity to make up ground in the Houston series. Sweep that, and the Mariners get to finish against the Athletics while the Astros have to wrap up against the Guardians. 

Boston Red Sox

Record: 74-73
Playoff odds: 6.6 percent
Strength of schedule: .517

Key series: Sept. 20-22 vs. Twins

The Red Sox will do a lot of traveling in the last two and a half weeks, but manager Alex Cora keeps pointing to the home series against the Twins, the team the Red Sox are currently trying to catch for the final wild-card spot. If that spot’s still in play a week from now, that series could be incredibly consequential. The Twins won a series against the Red Sox in Minnesota back in May.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Philadelphia Phillies

Record: 88-58
Playoff odds: 100 percent
Strength of schedule: .493

Key series: Sept. 16-18 at Brewers

Beyond taking care of business against the Mets to maintain their healthy division lead, the Milwaukee series should be circled on the Phillies’ calendar. It will be critically important for their chances of clinching a bye. The top two division winners pass through to the NLDS; those spots are currently occupied by the Phillies and Dodgers. The Phillies are 4 games ahead of the closest threat, the Brewers, whom they swept in a close series — 3-1, 2-1 (Nick Castellanos walk-off), 2-0 — back in June. Another series win would provide a cushion.

Los Angeles Dodgers

Record: 87-59
Playoff odds: 100 percent
Strength of schedule: .464

Key series: Sept. 24-26 vs. Padres

It is a (comparatively) soft remaining schedule for the Dodgers, as they have nine games against the two worst teams in the NL. But the Padres have had the Dodgers’ number this season, winning seven of their 10 meetings so far, and have also kept the pressure on them in the second half. Even if the Padres don’t enter this series with a real shot at an NL West title, they still could lock up a wild-card spot and play spoiler by dinging the Dodgers’ odds of securing a bye.

Milwaukee Brewers

Record: 84-62
Playoff odds: 99.8 percent
Strength of schedule: .525

Key series: Sept. 16-18 vs. Phillies

The Brewers have the hardest remaining schedule of any NL contender, and, truthfully, the next three series are all key. Seven games against the Diamondbacks, MLB’s hottest team since July 1, is no picnic. But the Brewers don’t have a lot to play for other than a wild-card bye — the Cubs have a 0.3 percent chance of chasing them down — so three home games against the bye-wielding Phillies is a big opportunity. As of Thursday, the Brewers were tied with the Yankees and Phillies for MLB’s best run differential, at plus-124. They were, however, minus-5 in the Phillies’ sweep in June.

Arizona Diamondbacks

Record: 82-64
Playoff odds: 93 percent
Strength of schedule: .492

Key series: Sept. 27-29 vs. Padres

Assuming neither the Padres nor Diamondbacks jump the Dodgers, this series at Chase Field could decide who hosts a wild-card matchup between those two teams. Playing the last series of the regular season with home field on the line, then seeing that same team in the first round of the playoffs? That invites all sorts of strategies. The white-hot D-Backs went on the road for the wild-card series last year and swept the Brewers. They’d much prefer to host the festivities this time.

San Diego Padres

Record: 82-65
Playoff odds: 93 percent
Strength of schedule: .518

Key series: Sept. 27-29 at Diamondbacks

The same scenario from the D-Backs blurb applies here: Home field in the wild-card round could be up for grabs. The Padres have a tougher road to get there than Arizona, though, as they sandwich the Astros and Dodgers around a White Sox Series series. Whiplash! (There’s also a chance the Mets and/or Braves will be in position by the last series of the regular season to swipe a top-two wild-card spot.) The Padres and D-Backs have split their 10 meetings so far this season. Let’s decide this.

New York Mets

Record: 80-66
Playoff odds: 56.8 percent
Strength of schedule: .520

Key series: Sept. 24-26 at Braves

The Mets have the second-hardest remaining schedule of any NL contender. It’s going to be a grind. They’ll play seven against the team with MLB’s best record (Phillies) and then end the season on the road against another division leader (Brewers). In between, they’ll have potentially the most pivotal series of the season: three games in Atlanta, for all the marbles. But for that series to have peak importance, the Mets must hold serve against the Phillies and hold off the Cubbies.

Atlanta Braves

Record: 79-67
Playoff odds: 55.8 percent
Strength of schedule: .499

Key series: Sept. 24-26 vs. Mets

The penultimate series of the regular season may be even more compelling than the last one. Mets-Braves, Orioles-Yankees, Padres-Dodgers, Mariners-Astros. Buckle up! The Braves and Mets have been locked in the league’s closest in-or-out playoff race, jockeying back and forth knowing the loser will likely (but not certainly) miss the dance entirely. If the Braves rotation stays on regular rest, Chris Sale, Max Fried and Charlie Morton will be lined up to start in the Mets series.

(Top photo of Francisco Lindor and J.D. Martinez: Vaughn Ridley / Getty Images)