Champions League favourites Manchester City begin their extended UCL adventure with a cracker of a match as they host reigning Serie A champions Inter Milan at the Etihad Stadium on Wednesday.

The new, restructured format, which sees the old group stage scrapped and a new ‘league phase’ introduced, means there will be top matches across the Champions League schedule as Pot 1 teams can be drawn against each other. It doesn’t get any better than a rematch of the 2023 UCL final, which saw Man City claim the club’s first European title with a 1-0 win.

City have had a successful start to the season on home soil but have been feeling more vulnerable lately, particularly in defence, having conceded goals to Brentford, West Ham and Ipswich Town in successive Premier League games.

Meanwhile, Inter have drawn against both Bonza and Genoa, leaving them two points behind the leaders. However, no Italian team has yet achieved a perfect result in the first four games of the Serie A season.

Man City vs Inter Milan Prediction & Odds

• Moneyline-lean: Manchester City (-210)
• Score prediction: Man City 2-1 Inter Milan
• Best guess: Inter Milan +1 goal handicap (-105)

Given Man City’s somewhat nervous start to the season, this would be a prime position for Inter to score against the English giants… but Simone Inzaghi’s side also looked shaky at the start of the year and have been unreliable so far.

Oddly enough, both teams played at their best against their strongest opponents to date. Man City kept a sole clean sheet against Chelsea in their Premier League opener, while Inter defeated Europa League champions Atalanta 4-0, with all goals coming before the hour mark.

We don’t know much about these teams in their current form, but it seems we know enough to back the favourites even if it’s close. While Man City hold little value on the moneyline, backing Inter on the handicap will wash you out for a close defeat while benefiting from an Inter result.

The betting market agrees, with the slight pre-kickoff line movement in favour of the hosts. Man City have fallen below the 1/2 mark, while Inter’s moneyline odds have risen above 5/1.

Facts about the match Man City vs. Inter Milan

• Date: Wednesday, September 18, 2024
• Kick-off time: 8:00 PM local time (3:00 PM ET / 12:00 PM PT)
• Location: Etihad Stadium (Manchester, England)
• Referee: Glenn Nyberg (SWE)
• Last meeting: Man City 1-0 Inter (June 10, 2023 | Champions League Final)

MORE: Who will win the 2024/25 Champions League title? Expert predictions and tips

Man City vs Inter Milan Best Bet

• Choice: More than 3.0 goals in total
• Chances: -105 (DraftKings)

Although the only competitive meeting between these clubs in history ended in a 1-0 scoreline less than two years ago, there is ample reason to believe that this match could be more goal-heavy.

Major cup finals are almost always more cautious than matches earlier in the tournament given what’s at stake, but even in that 2023 title clash there should have been far more goals as the two teams combined for 21 shots for 2.67 xG, with all six missed big chances, including four for Inter.

Man City have conceded goals to three of their first four opponents this season, while Inter have also coughed up three goals and 4.04 xG in four league games. There’s little need to be said about the attacking firepower on both sides in this matchup, with Erling Haaland and Lautaro Martinez leading potent attacking lines. There will be goals in this match, and at even money with full-goal insurance, it offers strong value.

Man City vs Inter Milan prop bet

• Choice: Inter 10+ total shots
• Chances: +115 (FanDuel)

Although Inter are a team built primarily on efficiency, there is reason to have had quite a few chances on goal in this match.

The Italian side have reached double figures in all four of their Serie A games this season, and while all of those have come against lesser opponents, they come up against a Man City side who are not rather as suffocating as they ever were under Pep Guardiola.

City have conceded 10 shots to both Chelsea and West Ham in the Premier League this season, in two very different games. They dominated 68% of possession against the Hammers and still managed to concede plenty of counterattacks, while controlling just 54% of possession against a very intense Chelsea side. City even conceded eight shots to bottom-ranked Brentford at home last time out, and also had just 54% possession in that game.

Inter can certainly reach that threshold, which is attractive at a higher odds.