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Hurricane forecasters warn of possible storm in the Caribbean
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Hurricane forecasters warn of possible storm in the Caribbean


The Atlantic hurricane season continues to churn along and is now more than halfway through. So far, the number of storms (seven) is slightly below average.

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Hurricane forecasters are keeping an eye on a new potential storm as the Atlantic hurricane season passes its halfway point. So far, the season has not recorded an exceptional number of storms, despite early warnings of a hyperactive season.

Hurricane forecasters have turned their attention to the Caribbean Sea, where a low pressure area could form late this weekend or early next week, the National Hurricane Center said. The hurricane center said the system could see slow development through the middle of next week as it moves slowly north or northwest across the northwestern Caribbean Sea or the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.

The season continues to simmer and is already more than halfway through. So far, the number of storms (seven) is slightly below average, while the number of hurricanes (four) is about average. For various reasons, the season has yet to live up to many of the preseason predictions.

“There is increasing evidence from long-range global models that the next storm could form in the western Caribbean in the coming days,” University of Miami meteorologist Brian McNoldy wrote on his blog.

If the yet-to-form system is named as a storm, it would be Tropical Storm Helene, the eighth named storm of the 2024 season.

What is the Central American Gyre?

The system in question is expected to be powered by energy from what meteorologists call the Central American gyre, a type of large but weak, slowly rotating storm that forms over Central America, AccuWeather reported.

The gyre can be an early and late season source of tropical development, according to Weather.com. This mid-season development is somewhat unusual, experts say, but it could help spawn a storm that could impact the U.S.:

“Given the region’s typical water temperatures and the energy of the Central American Gyre, there is a possibility that a system that forms over the western Caribbean into the central Gulf could rapidly strengthen and move toward the U.S.,” said AccuWeather hurricane expert Alex DaSilva.

Where could the storm go?

Computer models have a wide range of outcomes for the system: There’s a “solid signal for development, but a lot of spread in where it might end up,” NOAA meteorologist Andy Hazelton noted of X. “A lot of moving parts and uncertainty with these Central American gyre setups. Good idea to at least revise your hurricane plan if you’re anywhere between S FL and the western Gulf.”

NOAA meteorologist Tomer Berg said on X that “there’s been a lot of talk about a potential tropical cyclone in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico next week.” While there is a legitimate signal for a storm, the details are less clear, Berg conceded. He cautioned against fixating on a single model, some of which show a major hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico.

Remnants of Gordon are still there

The remnants of what was Tropical Storm Gordon continue to spread out in the Atlantic Ocean, far from land. Forecasters say it could regenerate in the coming days: “Environmental conditions may become more favorable for development later this week, and a tropical depression or storm could re-form within a few days as the system moves slowly northward across the central subtropical Atlantic,” the National Hurricane Center said.