Good Morning and Happy Tuesday! Heavy rainfall is expected today through Wednesday night as a strong low pressure system moves into eastern Montana. Cloud cover will increase today with increasing showers and thunderstorm activity. Daytime highs will reach the upper 60s to lower 70s in central Montana and the low to mid 80s in eastern Montana.

Tonight, scattered severe thunderstorms will develop east of I-15, continuing into the night in eastern Montana. These storms are capable of producing hail and damaging winds.

Then low pressure will move just east of the area late tonight into Wednesday, bringing widespread rain, especially Wednesday morning. A significant band of heavy rain will form east of I-15, affecting parts of Hill, Fergus, Chouteau and Judith Basin Counties, while other areas will see persistent rain. Winds will also increase, with gusts expected to reach 40-50 mph on Wednesday. A high wind warning is in effect for Judith Basin and Fergus Counties, where westerly winds could gust up to 60 mph.

Most areas can expect rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches. Due to the counterclockwise circulation around the low, a northerly flow will develop over central Montana for most of the storm. This will lead to strong uplifts on the northern slopes of the region’s mountain ranges, where rainfall amounts could reach 2 to 4 inches. Conversely, areas west of I-15 will receive significantly less moisture.

A flash flood warning is in effect through Wednesday evening in the Horse Gulch fire zone. Heavy rainfall has created a risk of flash flooding and debris flows in the area.

Rain is expected to clear up in central Montana by sunrise Thursday morning, although eastern Montana could still see some lingering showers. Sunny, pleasant fall weather returns as we approach the end of the work week.

Looking ahead to the weekend, a weak disturbance could bring an extra chance of showers, but overall conditions will remain mild and pleasant.