Week 3 begins Thursday night with the New England Patriots (1-1) visiting the New York Jets (1-1) at MetLife Stadium.

The Patriots enter as six-point underdogs, but are one of eight teams that are 2-0 ATS this season (Tampa Bay Buccaneers, New Orleans Saints, Pittsburgh Steelers, Arizona Cardinals, Los Angeles Chargers, Minnesota Vikings, Chicago Bears). After upsetting the Cincinnati Bengals on the road in Week 1, New England fell to the Seattle Seahawks at home on Sunday.

Meanwhile, after a disappointing loss to the San Francisco 49ers to open the season, the Jets bounced back to even their record against the Tennessee Titans. Their first home game of the season is Thursday night.

The Jets are 2-1 in the AFC East win, trailing the Buffalo Bills (-135), and the Patriots are only a slim 30-1.

Odds are current at time of publication, courtesy of ESPN BET

Game lines

Distribution: Fighter Jets -6
Moneyline: Patriots (+220), Jets (-270)
Over/Under: 38.5

Spread first half: Jets -3.5 (-105), Patriots +3.5 (-125)
Total points Patriots: 16.5 (above even/below -130)
Total points Jets: 22.5 (More than -115/Less than -115)

The props

Passing

Total passing yards by Aaron Rodgers: 224.5 (Above +120/Below -155)
Rodgers’ total touchdowns: 1.5 (Above +125/Below -160)
Jacoby Brissett total passing yards: 174.5 (Above +110/Below -140)
Brissett Total Passing TDs: 0.5 (Above -160/Below +125)

to hurry

Breece Hall’s Total Rushing Yards: 59.5 (More than -130/Less than +100)
Rhamondre Stevenson total rushing yards: 69.5 (Above +110/Below -140)

Received

Garrett Wilson total receiving yards: 69.5 (Above +105/Below -135)
Total receiving yards in Hall: 29.5 (Above -135/Below +105)
Total receiving yards by Hunter Henry: 34.5 (More than -115/Less than -115)
Stevenson total receiving yards: 14.5 (Above -130/Below Even)
Total receiving yards by Allen Lazard: 34.5 (above even/below -130)

Seth Walder’s Choices

Jets DT Quinnen Williams under 0.5 sacks (-180): This is one pick where you’ll close your eyes and forget you made this bet until the end of the game, because Williams is a good player and the Patriots’ offensive line is high-scoring. last in the NFL in pass block win rate over two weeks.

Despite this, Jacoby Brissett has a slightly better than average sack percentage at 6.6%, which is more important than the porous offensive line, given the extent to which quarterbacks have their sack percentage under control.

Also, crucially, Williams’ chances will be limited because the Patriots simply don’t pass that much: they have the 28th highest designed pass rate (and the 29th highest if we only look at situations where the win likelihood was between 15-85%). Sack forecasts for defensive tackles are also lower in general. My model makes the fair price here -220.

Patriots WR DeMario Douglas 40+ receiving yards (+250): Targets are earned for wide receivers, and therefore the speed at which a receiver can throw the ball his way is an indication of skill. Since the start of last season, Douglas’ 23% target rate ranks 38th out of 79 qualifying wide receivers. While his target rate has dropped significantly (10%) through two games this season, his snap counts are in line with where he played last season, and I’m betting the targets will come back as well.

Likewise, Douglas had a normal over/under receiving line (a predicted median, really) of over 40 six times last season. Now we get +250 on that number, and that’s what this bet is all about — the value and the price. My alternate receiving line model, which also values ​​his value at 30+ and 35+ receiving yards, albeit slightly less, prices this one at +147.

Betting trends

Thanks to ESPN Research

• Underdogs of at least 6 points are 8-0 ATS this season, the best two-week mark since the AFL/NFL merger (1970). The last time underdogs of 6+ points were undefeated ATS after two weeks was 1969 (9-0-1 ATS). They are 4-4 outright.

• The Jets have not been favored by at least 6 points against the Patriots since 2000.

• The Patriots have been favored in 24 straight games, the longest such streak in the NFL.

• Coaches in their first 10 career games with three days rest have gone 9-26 ATS since 2013.

• The Patriots are 6-1 ATS/SU in the last seven meetings and 15-1 SU (11-5 ATS) in the last 16 meetings. The Patriots have won eight straight road games (5-3 ATS), winning five of the last six road games.

• This is the Jets’ second-biggest favorite in the past six seasons (-7.5 against the Bears in 2022, winning 31-10).

• The Patriots have won six straight games as underdogs. They have also won four straight road games.

• The last four meetings between these teams have remained below the total.

• The Jets are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games as a favorite (3-4 outright).

• The Patriots are 2-0 ATS. They are looking for their first 3-0 ATS start since 2016.

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