Meteorologists are beginning to sound the alarm over an area of ​​the Gulf of Mexico where there is a high risk of tropical development next week, which could impact Florida, Texas and several other Gulf Coast states.

Earlier this year, weather experts warned of the high likelihood of an above-average hurricane season, citing the El Niño climate pattern and unusually warm ocean surface temperatures. But as of mid-September, only seven named storms had originated in the Atlantic. The most recent was Tropical Storm Gordon, which weakened to offshore remnants without making landfall.

The next named storm will be Helene. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is monitoring two disturbances in the Atlantic Ocean as of Thursday: the remnants of Gordon, which has a 30 percent chance of forming in the next two days, and another with a 10 percent chance of forming. Several meteorologists have expressed concern about another possible system developing in the southern Gulf of Mexico or the western Caribbean next week.

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AccuWeather issued a report Thursday on a possible storm system developing in the northwestern Caribbean and the southcentral, southwestern Gulf of Mexico.

“There is a chance that a tropical storm that forms in this area could strengthen into a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico,” Senior Director of AccuWeather Forecasting Operations Dan DePodwin said in the report. “Historically, a storm that moves north from the Caribbean at this time of year not only strengthens, but often strengthens quickly. Major hurricanes have developed in similar situations in the past.”

AccuWeather meteorologist Isaac Longley said Newsweek that there is an area of ​​low pressure that provides a favorable setting for storm development. With low wind shear and high ocean surface temperatures, Longley said, the system is likely to develop by the middle of next week.

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It is uncertain which way the storm will go and no official weather forecasts had been made as of Thursday evening.

AccuWeather produced a chart that accompanied the report showing the historical risk of landfall for storms that developed in the same area that meteorologists are watching. The states along the Central Gulf Coast (Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama) have the highest risk of landfall, with a 38 percent chance. There is a 14 percent chance of landfall in Texas, a 17 percent chance in Florida, a 10 percent chance the storm will move east through the southwest Atlantic and a 21 percent chance it will move west and hit Mexico or Central America.

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Should the potential storm move through the central Gulf Coast states, it would be another blow to the region. Hurricane Francine hit Louisiana on September 11 as a Category 2 storm, causing widespread flooding, power outages and damaging winds along the already vulnerable coastal region.