With the final buzzer of the WNBA regular season on Thursday night, the WNBA playoff odds have been provisionally set. The New York Liberty (+120) have secured the top spot and are the favorites to win this year’s WNBA title, with the rival Las Vegas Aces (+225) close behind and the second-place Minnesota Lynx (+240) completing a three-way tier at the top of the odds.

After that, the odds drop off significantly, with the Connecticut Sun (+800), followed by the Indiana Fever (+3000), Seattle Storm (+4000), Phoenix Mercury (+15000) and Atlanta Dream (+25000).

The stakes and storylines are high for this year’s playoffs, befitting a league that’s exploding in popularity and satisfying fans new and old alike. 2023 MVP Breanna Stewart and the Liberty are aiming for the city’s first-ever title after losing to the Aces in last year’s Finals. Meanwhile, reigning Finals MVP A’ja Wilson and the Aces are gunning for a three-peat, the league’s first since 2000, when the league was in just its fourth season.

And of course, the name everyone’s talking about: Caitlin Clark makes her WNBA Playoff debut with sixth-seeded Indiana Fever.

This is the bracket for the first round:

• No. 8 Atlanta Dream vs. No. 1 New York Liberty
• No. 7 Phoenix Mercury vs. No. 2 Minnesota Lynx
• No. 6Indiana Fever vs. No. 3 Connecticut Sun
• No. 5Seattle Storm vs. No. 4 Las Vegas Aces

Below, a look at the WNBA playoffs from WNBA writers Sabreena Merchant and Ben Pickman.

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WNBA Championship Chances

The Liberty secured first place on Tuesday with an 87-71 win over the Washington Mystics, giving New York home-field advantage all the way to the playoffs. The Liberty are 32-8 and have led the league for most of the season.

A post-Olympic resurgence by the Lynx (30-10 overall, 13-2 since the Olympic break) kept the Liberty from clinching a playoff spot before Tuesday. Before the final bracket was set, the Lynx were at +1000 odds and have fallen to +800.

Meanwhile, the reigning champion Aces (27-13) have experience with the clutch factor you need to reach the play-offs.

Who would our experts most like to see win?

Picks for WNBA Champion

Pickman: New York Liberty — The Liberty enter the postseason playing far from their best basketball. But New York is the league’s best regular-season team, is incredibly talented, has home-field advantage in the playoffs and has worked all season to overcome the scars of last year’s WNBA Finals. It’s not easy to flip a switch in the playoffs, but New York knows it has to step up and has the talent to do so.

Trader: Minnesota lynx — Assuming the Lynx can beat the Sun, they’ve been a solid opponent for the Liberty and Aces all season.

Chances of MVP title in the WNBA Finals

There’s a third category that tops the list for Finals MVP: A’ja Wilson, Napheesa Collier and Breanna Stewart are seen as the players with the best chance to reach the Finals with their team and put their best foot forward.

Wilson is having a season unlike anything seen before in this league (or officially in the NBA): most points (1,021), most rebounds (451) and most blocked shots (98) in a season. It would be the third time in league history that a player has won back-to-back Finals MVPs, with Cynthia Cooper winning four in 1997-2000 and Lisa Leslie in 2001-2002.

Lynx star Collier has a league-defining performance that is only slightly overshadowed by Wilson’s all-time season. After helping the United States win gold at the Olympics, she is averaging 20.7 points, 9.2 rebounds and 3.1 assists.

Stewart, who won the regular-season MVP award in 2023, won the Finals MVP award with the Seattle Storm in 2018 and 2020. Stewart is averaging 20.4 points, 8.5 rebounds and 3.5 assists this season.

Final MVP Picks

Choice Man: Brenna Stewart — She’s been the best and most consistent player on the league’s best team throughout the regular season. Stewart is a perennial winner, and her loss in last year’s finals was the first major defeat of her career. She’ll avenge that this fall. But if you want more value, look to Jonquel Jones at odds of +1200Jones, a former league MVP himself, was New York’s most consistent and dominant player during last year’s playoffs and could be again this year.

Trader: Kayla McBride — The best player on the winning team doesn’t always win this award (see: 2021 and 2022), and it’s not hard to imagine McBride having a few great shooting nights that help Minnesota move forward.

WNBA Playoffs First Round Series

No. 8 Atlanta Dream vs. No. 1 New York Liberty

• Game 1: 1:00 PM ET, Sunday
• How to watch: ESPN
• Streaming: Fubo (try for free)

Pickman’s choice: New York in two — Throw out the season finale loss to the Dream. It would be a monumental upset if New York were to lose in the first round.

Trader’s choice: New York in two.

No. 7 Phoenix Mercury vs. No. 2 Minnesota Lynx

• Game 1: 5:00 PM ET, Sunday
• How to watch: ESPN
• Streaming: Fubo (try for free)

Pickman: Minnesota in two — The Lynx are the WNBA’s best team since the All-Star break, having lost just one game since play resumed. There’s no reason to suspect a struggling Phoenix team will cause any major hiccups.

Trader: Minnesota in half.

No. 6Indiana Fever vs. No. 3 Connecticut Sun

• Game 1: 3:00 PM ET, Sunday
• How to watch: ABC
• Streaming: Fubo (try for free)

Pickman: Sun in two. The Sun won the season series against Indiana 3-1, but all three of their victories came in the first five weeks of the season, when Indiana was still figuring itself out. The pace at which the series is played will go a long way in determining the winner of this matchup. Indiana could be the first lower seed to defeat a higher seed in the new format, but it’s also hard to bet against the Suns’ playoff experience.

Trader: Connecticut in two. We’re still waiting for the first upset in the first round of this format, and while Indiana has been competitive since the break, beating Connecticut in the most recent meeting, the Sun also have a five-year streak of reaching the WNBA semifinals at stake. The bet is that the streak stays alive.

No. 5Seattle Storm vs. No. 4 Las Vegas Aces

• Game 1: 10:00 PM ET, Sunday
• How to watch: ESPN
• Streaming: Fubo (try for free)

Pickman: Another matchup loaded with talent, the Aces have consistently raised their level of play in the postseason. Consistency will be the difference as Las Vegas chases its three-peat.

Trader: Las Vegas in two.

More WNBA coverage

How Big Should ESPN Be with Caitlin Clark During the WNBA Playoffs? Our Experts Debate

Playoff games scheduled, Atlanta Dream secures last spot: How the postseason format works

Awards and all-league team: A’ja Wilson leads the way, Caitlin Clark beats rookies

(Photo by A’ja Wilson: Steph Chambers/Getty Images)