The No. 11 USC Trojans will have their first Big Ten game of the season when they travel to Ann Arbor to take on the No. 18 Michigan Wolverines at the Big House on Saturday. The Trojans (2-0) are off to a hot start after already claiming a ranked win over the No. 16 LSU Tigers in their season opener this season.

Meanwhile, things have gotten tougher for the reigning champion Wolverines. Michigan suffered a blowout loss to the No. 1 Texas Longhorns in Week 2, and quarterback Davis Warren struggled in a Week 3 win over Arkansas State last week, throwing three interceptions. Warren’s performance prompted head coach Sherrone Moore to make a switch at QB, starting dual-threat Alex Orji.

Can Orji spark Michigan’s offense and help them pull off an upset as 5-point underdogs?

Odds are current at time of publication, courtesy of ESPN BET

Distribution: USC level (-5)
Moneyline: USC (-210), Michigan (+175)
Over/Under: 43.5
Spread first half: USC -3.5, Michigan +3.5
Moneyline first half: USC (-180), Michigan (+140)

Pamela Maldonado’s Pick of the Match: Michigan (+5)

The USC Trojans have been fortunate enough to play at home or on neutral fields so far this season. This game will be USC’s first real test in a hostile Big Ten environment. Michigan’s “Big House” is one of the toughest venues in college football. While the Wolverines’ offense has been a bit sluggish, a quarterback change could provide the spark the team needs. With Alex Orji named the new starter, Michigan will likely rely heavily on its run game. Orji has shown he can make big plays on both designed running plays and when plays fall flat. In just 10 rushing attempts, Orji has gained 10+ yards four times. His dual-threat ability could allow for more diverse play-calling and potentially improve Michigan’s offensive output, which has been underwhelming in the first few weeks of the season.

Additionally, running back Kalel Mullings bolsters Michigan’s ground game. While Donovan Edwards was expected to be the workhorse, Mullings has emerged as Michigan’s best running back, with 15 carries in two of three games to start the season. Edwards remains the home run hitter, but Mullings is the one who will wear down the defense. This ball-control attack could help keep USC’s high-powered offense off the field and limit scoring opportunities.

USC still has concerns about its rushing defense. In the season opener against LSU, the Trojans allowed 4.5 yards per carry, indicating room for improvement in stopping the run. They currently rank 27th in rushing yards allowed, up from 117th last year, but are ranked 82nd in rush defense grade by PFF. This tells me that while USC’s raw rushing yardage stats look good, PFF’s more detailed analysis suggests that their run defense may not be as strong as its yardage rankings indicate.

Let’s see if the Trojans can keep up their performance for 60 minutes against Michigan’s relentless run game. Take Michigan as the underdog at home.

Betting trends

• This is the first time Michigan has been a home underdog twice in one season since 2010. It is the first time since the 1978 FBS/FCS split that Michigan has been a home underdog twice in the same season as a ranked team

• Michigan is 5-1 ATS against ranked teams since the start of last season, which is tied for the second-best mark over the entire stretch.

• Michigan is an underdog for the second time in its last three games. In the previous 32 games, they were underdogs just twice.

• USC has been a visiting favorite since the start of last season, going 0-3 ATS.

• USC is 1-7 ATS in their last eight games as an away favorite against a ranked opponent.

Thanks to ESPN Stats & Info.

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