The National Hurricane Center continues to predict that a tropical storm is developing that could reach the Gulf of Mexico next week and become a tropical depression.

However, there is no sign of unrest yet.

The hurricane center expects this to happen early next week, with the hurricane potentially moving north from the western Caribbean into the southern Gulf of Mexico.

Meteorologists say the hurricane will find an environment in the Gulf of Mexico where it can organize and could develop into a tropical depression by the end of next week.

When a tropical storm develops in the Gulf of Mexico during hurricane season, it is cause for concern.

But meteorologists warn it’s too early to know what the yet-to-form disturbance will do.

And it’s too early to say what the future holds.

Nevertheless, the National Weather Service in Mobile warned residents and visitors along Alabama’s Gulf Coast to keep a close eye on the weather forecast for the coming week.

It’s also a good time to double-check your hurricane plan and supplies, just in case.

If the system organizes and is named, it will likely become Helene, the next name on the list of Atlantic storms for 2024.

The National Weather Service in Mobile was monitoring forecast trends Saturday, and meteorologists said it will take a few more days before the system is developed enough to have a “trackable feature that will help us narrow down the wide range of possibilities.”

The weather service expects a low pressure area to develop in the western Caribbean, possibly around Tuesday. It will move across Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula and into the southern Gulf, or Bay of Campeche.

From there, it could have a favorable environment (warm water, low wind shear) to organize and strengthen. Forecasters added that models suggest that any forms could be on the larger side, which has the potential to spread wind and rain effects farther from the center.

Then there are the many uncertainties, the biggest factor being that the disruption has not even happened yet.

“Once the system is actually formed and models are able to lock in a traceable feature, we should see the (forecast model) guidelines converge toward a high-probability solution,” the weather service said in its review of the forecast Saturday morning.

There are also many questions about the so-called steering features that could affect the ultimate path of the system. There will be a ridge of high pressure over parts of the South. A trough of low pressure is expected to push into the Great Lakes region, and an area of ​​low pressure will be cut off from that trough and will linger over the south-central U.S.

All of these things could ultimately affect where the tropical disturbance goes. The strength and positioning of these features will become clearer next week.

The weather service warned:

“It is important not to focus on the precise location of the center, as impacts will likely be felt far from the center of the system,” meteorologists said Saturday. “We will continue to monitor trends closely and urge residents and visitors throughout the Gulf Coast to continue monitoring the forecast over the next several days.”

ELSEWHERE IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN

The National Hurricane Center also monitored three other areas for possible developments on Saturday.

All three were located in the central and eastern Atlantic Ocean, far from the U.S. All three were unlikely to become tropical depressions in the coming week.

The Atlantic hurricane season typically peaks around September 10, but does not officially end until November 30.