Things didn’t look good early last week, but eventually Arkansas State’s offense came together and covered Michigan. In theory, if the Red Wolves can do that in the Big House, a trip to Ames isn’t so scary. The key to the Red Wolves’ success was that they didn’t make the big mistake that would have punished them. They used their mobile quarterback to avoid the rush and didn’t beat themselves — just 3 penalties. That’s a good formula on the road.

The Cyclones have had a few weeks to recover from their intense win against Iowa. This is their final tune-up before Big 12 play begins, and it should be a chance to get quarterback Rocco Becht back on track. He more than held his own against the Hawkeyes, but playing that team can make you see ghosts. Sticking to the script will be easier this week, and I expect the Cyclones to score more than they have all season — they have 21 points to score.

This line is fascinating because it scores the Cyclones about the same as the Wolverines did this season — the same line against the same team in a visiting role. Like last week, I think the Red Wolves can do enough on offense to cover the game. It could also come late like last week, but that’s okay. Iowa State doesn’t have that knockout punch.

Arkansas State vs Iowa State prediction: Arkansas State +21.5 (-110) available at time of publication. Playable up to +21.

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