The latest European ensemble model run is out and there is a 60% chance that a tropical storm will form over the Gulf of Mexico. The main questions are… Where will it go? How strong? Will it hit Central Alabama? Well, I can’t give you any completely correct answers because we are still waiting for the system to actually form a central low and move into a more favorable atmosphere. Hopefully, all of these model images will show you, in some way, a general direction of the system. This is why tropical systems are so hard to predict their directions and/or their strengths. They currently have no location to start their projections from and without knowing that, the models can’t come close to a perfect forecast unless it was a lucky guess. This is what I got.

Here’s the latest from the National Hurricane Center’s Tropical Weather Outlook on this potential tropical disaster…

Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of ​​low pressure is likely to form over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and adjacent portions of Central America by early to mid-next week. Thereafter, gradual development of this system is possible and a tropical depression could develop as the system moves slowly northward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico through late next week. Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce heavy rainfall over portions of Central America over the next few days.
* Chance of formation within 48 hours…low…almost 0 percent.
* Chance of formation after 7 days…on average…60 percent.

So at this point the NHC has seen no reason to change their outlook from this morning’s post. But let me tell you something, the models have shown some major changes that may put the beaches of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle on high alert and preparing for some rough weather that may be coming their way. Here’s what the models are showing us this afternoon…

This is one that should be of concern to Alabama’s beaches, as the European model shows the center of a weak Category 1 hurricane moving inland around the Alabama/Florida state line, possibly over Pensacola, around the morning hours of Saturday, 9/28. The center will move through western Alabama before turning left and moving into northeastern Mississippi by midnight. Severe weather is possible across the eastern 2/3 of the state, along with gusty to strong winds and torrential rain. The weather will gradually improve on Sunday, 9/29.

The latest European AI model run tells a different story, as a Category 1 hurricane is expected to make landfall at sunrise on Saturday 28/9 in the Big Bend region of Florida, before making a major change in direction to the northwest and the center moving through the northeast corner of Alabama. Much of the state will be on the drier and less active side of the system; however, rain and gusty winds remain possible throughout the day on Saturday. The good news is that no severe weather is likely as we will be west of the center.

The latest GFS model run now shows the system making landfall slightly further west than this morning, but it is still moving over the Florida Panhandle, with the center making landfall around Panama City Beach during the morning hours of Friday 9/27. The center is expected to move over the southeastern corner of Alabama, with the strongest winds affecting locations between Troy and Dothan. Rain and gusts are likely across the rest of the state, but no extreme weather is expected and rainfall will not be as heavy.

The worst case scenario would be if the Canadian model were to come to fruition, as the center of a Category 1 hurricane would hit Mobile Bay directly, making landfall around Mobile as early as late Thursday afternoon, 9/26. Gusty to strong winds are possible across Alabama from south to north for the remainder of Thursday and early Friday, with severe weather threatening much of the area. There would be heavy rain, flooding along the Alabama Gulf Coast and Mobile Bay, including storm surge flooding hazards. Power outages would be likely for some locations with weaker infrastructure, and there would also be some storm damage from high winds and a few tornadoes.

And last but certainly not least, there is the Icon model run, which I have not used before, but is very useful for forecasting. This last run has the center of a strong tropical storm, or weak Category 1 hurricane, making landfall on the Louisiana coast just south of Houma, LA during the morning hours of Saturday, 9/28. It will make a northeasterly turn and move into the southwestern portions of Alabama, bringing heavy rain and wind to the area before changing direction again and moving northward through western Alabama for the remainder of the day. That would also mean that we would be dealing with the threat of severe weather and power outages, primarily in the eastern 2/3 of the state.

Here are the latest thoughts from NWS Birmingham on Central Alabama weather for the second half of the coming work week…

Not many changes are needed in the extended afternoon as upper level ridges remain in the area through at least Monday. Rain chances are low in the Northwest Tuesday afternoon, but expect much of the area to remain dry through Wednesday. There is still a lot of uncertainty for the rest of the week and weekend. For now, we are holding much of the forecast until there is better consistency regarding both a potential Gulf disturbance and a closed low/trough in the southern Plains.

Of course, we are still far too far out to even make a prediction since this system has not yet formed. Once the system is organized enough to develop a central low, the models will be able to make much better predictions than what we are seeing now. The most important thing for us to do is to stay informed and prepare well before the system develops. If it doesn’t come this way, you are prepared for the next one. If it does come this way, you are prepared.

Category: Alabama Weather, ALL NEWS, Severe Weather, Social Media, Tropical