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Florida Hurricane Threat Unprecedented

Vaseline September 25, 2024

A strengthening Helene in the Gulf of Mexico is the latest tropical terror to grip Florida.

The expected Category 3 hurricane headed for Florida’s Big Bend has already prompted three coastal counties – Franklin, Wakulla and Taylor – to order all residents to evacuate in light of a predicted “unsurvivable” 15-foot storm surge. Helene could also become the worst wind event in Tallahassee’s history, as 100 mph winds batter “Tree City USA.”

Ryan Truchelut, founder of WeatherTiger and hurricane manager for the USA TODAY NETWORK-Florida, said Helene is an unprecedented storm.

“Helene faces every threat Florida has faced over the last decade, or really since hurricane history.”

Below is the latest news about the storm’s path.

During his morning briefing, WeatherTiger’s Dr. Ryan Truchelut in Tallahassee warned that the noose is closing in on Florida’s capital and neighboring coastal cities.

Strengthening Tropical Storm Helene will avoid all land contact and head out of the Yucatan Channel into the Gulf of Mexico, putting it on a glide path for rapid intensification as it heads toward Florida as a Category 3 or higher storm.

When the storm finally makes landfall between Apalachicola and Cedar Key, it could be even more devastating than Hurricane Michael for many communities.

“A life-threatening 10-15’+ storm surge in Apalachee Bay will inundate much of the Big Bend and low-lying coastal areas of the eastern Panhandle, where mandatory evacuations are in effect,” wrote Truchelut, who creates written and interactive video forecasts for the USA TODAY NETWORK – Florida. “This would be by far the worst storm surge in recorded history in Apalachee Bay, surpassing the surge from Michael and the much smaller Idalia in Apalachee Bay and the Nature Coast.”

He also noted that as Helene’s track remains steady, “time is running out for the kind of bacon-saving eastward shift that kept the worst parts of Idalia and Debby in our Southeast.”

“The difference between damaging and potentially catastrophic winds for your local impact is whether Helene’s core/eyewall moves over you, which in this case could be about 60 miles wide,” he wrote. “It’s too early to know exactly who gets the core, but if you do, expect damaging winds of 80-100+ mph. For Tallahassee, that would produce damage that would exceed that of either Hermine or Michael.”

He noted that today is the last day to complete your preparations.

“IF YOU HAVE AN EVACUATION ORDER, GO TODAY. Tomorrow the weather will get worse.”

Leon County Commissioner Rick Minor pleaded with residents to take Hurricane Helene seriously, which is expected to make landfall south of Tallahassee as a Category 3 storm with winds of up to 115 mph (185 kph).

Minor said in an email to his constituents Tuesday night that he had been briefed by Leon County Emergency Management officials, who said Leon County would be directly impacted if the current approach continues.

“On Thursday, we’re going to have about six hours of sustained wind gusts of 74-110 mph, resulting in thousands of downed trees, over a hundred blocked roads, hundreds of damaged buildings, and many, many days of extended power outages,” he said. “But we shouldn’t panic — fortunately, we all have plenty of time to carefully plan and prepare.

Minor urged people to go to www.LeonReady.com, review the checklists and other information and start preparing now.

“Listen to the updated storm forecasts, carefully consider the expert advice you receive,” Minor said, “and make a plan for yourself, your family and your pets: are you going to evacuate, go to a shelter or wait out the storm at home?”

Minor said the forecast could still change, but he warned residents not to count on it.

“But if current forecasts come to fruition, it’s going to be a bad one,” he wrote. “Residents of Leon County cannot afford to underestimate the severity of this storm.”

When Tallahassee residents woke up Wednesday morning, there was no major shift in the path of what would become Hurricane Helene later today. There was no wind shear to lessen the unprecedented threat to Tallahassee.

Florida’s capital and its coastal neighbors Big Bend remain in the crosshairs. For residents of Wakulla, Franklin and Taylor Counties, National Weather Service meteorologists delivered a grim wake-up call hours after emergency managers ordered all county residents to evacuate.

“If this forecast comes to pass, it will be a nightmare scenario for Apalachee Bay,” meteorologists wrote in the latest cyclone statement for the region. “Please, please, please take all evacuation orders seriously.”

While the exact impact will depend greatly on the final path, catastrophic wind damage can be expected near the final point and inland along the path. Although the hurricane is expected to move quickly, very high rainfall rates and already saturated ground in some places will still pose a serious flood risk to the region. Tornadoes are also possible.

According to the National Weather Service in Tallahassee, Helene could leave some areas “uninhabitable for weeks or months,” with widespread power and communications outages expected for an extended period.

According to the NWS, potential impacts include structural damage to sturdy buildings, some with complete roof and wall damage; complete destruction of mobile homes; damage exacerbated by large airborne projectiles; numerous large trees snapped or uprooted; fences and signs blown down; many roads impassable due to large debris, and many more in urban or wooded areas; and many bridges, causeways, and causeways impassable.

Storm surge flooding, which could reach 15 feet in some places along Apalachee Bay, is “greatly accentuated” by powerful crashing waves. Other impacts of the surge include structural damage to buildings, many of which are washed away; damage greatly exacerbated by significant floating debris; coastal escape routes and secondary roads washed away or severely inundated; flood control systems and barriers potentially strained; extreme beach erosion; new shoreline narrowing possible; extensive damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks and piers; numerous small craft broken loose from moorings, many of which are towed ashore and beached.

Contact Jeff Burlew at [email protected] or follow @JeffBurlew on Twitter.