Hurricane Helene continues to churn through the Yucatan Channel and will soon enter the southern Gulf of Mexico. For now, it is still a Category 1 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 85 mph. Unfortunately, rapid intensification is very likely and we could see a Category 4 hurricane make landfall. For now, the expected landfall is Apalachicola, but it could hit anywhere from just west of Mexico Beach to a few miles east of St. Marks sometime Thursday night.

For now, the projected path has the eye nearly following the Alabama/Georgia state line through the morning hours of Friday as it weakens. With Helene expected to reach Category 4 strength, the wind forecast for the entire area will need to be increased, along with rain and the possibility of a few tropical tornadoes north and around east of the eye.

Total rainfall forecasts across the state through 1 a.m. Saturday currently range from no precipitation in the southwestern portions to nearly seven inches in the far eastern portions. For now, Birmingham could get 2.00-3.00 inches, Montgomery could get about 3.00-4.00 inches, and Huntsville could get about 4.00-5.00 inches. Surprisingly, Mobile is currently only forecast to get less than an inch; but that could change if the forecast continues to move westward.

The forecasted wind gusts across the state are pretty much uniform for the most part, as much of Alabama could see wind gusts in the 30-40 mph range, with gusts up to 40-50 mph near the Alabama/Georgia state line, and possibly over 60 mph in the far southeastern corner of the state. We also see Atlanta receiving wind gusts on par with a Category 1 hurricane.

00z HRRR Composite Reflectivity valid on Friday morning 02.00 am.

The latest HRRR run shows the southwestern and southeastern counties will be mostly dry by 2-3am Friday morning, central Alabama by 6-7am and northern Alabama just before noon. Now with all the tropical moisture still around we can’t rule out a few scattered showers after that time, they will be lighter in nature and not last as long.

While our focus is primarily on Helene at this time, we must not forget about the other two disturbances in the tropics. Here is the latest on each.

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic (AL98):
Showers and thunderstorms have shown a slight improvement in organization during the past 24 hours in connection with a broad low pressure area along a tropical wave, located a few hundred kilometers west of Cape Verde. Environmental conditions are favorable for gradual development and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next few days as it moves westward to west-northwestward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
– Chance of formation after 48 hours: High (70%)
– Chance of formation after 7 days: High (80%)

Central Subtropical Atlantic Ocean (AL99):
Showers and thunderstorms are becoming increasingly organized around a storm-force low located hundreds of miles east-northeast of Bermuda. Recent satellite wind data indicate that the system has separated from its frontal boundary and is producing tropical storm force winds near the center. If this trend continues, it will likely become a tropical storm shortly. The system is expected to continue moving east-northeastward across the central and eastern subtropical Atlantic. For more details, including storm warnings, consult the National Weather Service’s High Seas Forecasts.
– Chance of formation after 48 hours: High (80%)
– Chance of formation after 7 days: High (80%)

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