Hurricane Helene has strengthened to a Category 2 hurricane and is expected to make landfall in Florida tonight, bringing potentially catastrophic storm surge, devastating wind gusts and flooding.

Helene’s rapid pace means that the dangers will spread far inland through Friday. Life-threatening flash flooding, damaging winds and isolated tornadoes are expected in parts of Georgia, the Carolinas and Tennessee.

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This is the latest status: Helene is located just over 320 miles southwest of Tampa, Florida, and is moving north-northeastward at 15 mph. Maximum sustained winds are 100 mph.

Bands of heavy rain have developed well ahead of the hurricane across parts of Florida and the southeastern U.S., prompting occasional flash flood and tornado warnings. Wind gusts this morning have risen to 64 mph in Fort Lauderdale and 56 mph in Naples.

NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center has issued tornado warnings through the early evening for central and southern Florida, parts of eastern Georgia, and central and southern South Carolina.

Helene’s structure near the center limited its intensification overnight. But it is now becoming better organized amid low wind shear and deep, warm ocean waters, which will favor additional strengthening into a major hurricane (Category 3 or stronger) before landfall tonight.

Tropical storm-force winds extend outward up to 345 miles from Helene’s center, making it a major hurricane. That large size and fast forward speed are the reasons Helene poses such a significant storm surge threat along the coast, as well as widespread high winds and flooding and rainfall far inland.

Warnings and cautions in effect: A hurricane watch is in effect from Florida’s Big Bend and Nature Coast to mid-Georgia, including Tallahassee to Albany and Macon. Storm surge warnings extend from Mexico Beach south to Flamingo, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor.

As you can see from the map below, Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for most of the rest of Florida and Georgia (where there are no hurricane warnings), all of South Carolina, and much of western North Carolina.

These warnings mean that hurricanes, tropical storms and storm surges are expected in these areas as Helene makes landfall tonight and Friday.

Stakeholders in warned areas should implement their hurricane plans and heed the advice of local emergency services.

Here’s the timeline:

-​ Thursday: Helene is expected to peak as a major Category 3 or stronger hurricane in the eastern Gulf and then make landfall somewhere along Florida’s Big Bend as a large, intense hurricane on Thursday night. Impacts (surges, wind, rain) will be felt far from that landfall point, as is typical of larger storms.

-​ Friday:Helene is moving rapidly northward through the Southeast toward the southern Appalachians and the Ohio Valley, bringing strong winds, flooding and rainfall, and a few tornadoes.

(Further strengthen your forecast with our detailed, hour-by-hour breakdown for the next 8 days – only available on our Premium Pro Experience.)

US Impact

Storm surge

The National Hurricane Center’s storm surge forecast is shown below. As you can see, much of Florida’s Gulf Coast is expected to experience storm surge flooding, including areas as far south as the Keys.

Given Helene’s expected large wind field, significant storm surge inundation is also expected in the Tampa-St. Pete-Sarasota metro areas, expected to be several feet higher than what was experienced with Hurricane Idalia over a year ago.

If you live near the coast, make sure you know where your evacuation zone is and follow any orders from your local emergency services.

Winds

As previously mentioned, Helene will be both a large, intense, and fast-moving hurricane in the Gulf and then move inland. This means that the strong winds will cover a larger area and move farther inland than normal.

Hurricane-force winds (sustained winds over 75 mph) are expected along a portion of Florida’s Panhandle northward into southern and central Georgia Thursday night. Downed trees and power outages could be widespread in these areas, and some structural damage is possible.

Tropical storm force winds, at least gusty (39 to 73 mph), could move far inland into much of northern Georgia, eastern Alabama, South Carolina, western North Carolina and eastern Tennessee Thursday night through Friday. Downed trees and power outages are likely in these areas. This includes the Atlanta metropolitan area.

Precipitation

Rainfall from Helene could lead to catastrophic flooding in parts of the southern Appalachians.

That’s because the region had already received heavy rain on Wednesday before Helene moved from parts of Georgia, including the Atlanta metro area, into the southern Appalachians.

Heavy rainfall in increasingly saturated areas of Helene is certain to occur on Thursday through Friday.

This heavy rainfall, in addition to the hilly and mountainous terrain, is an excellent setting for devastating, life-threatening rainfall, flooding and landslides. A rare “high risk” flood forecast has been issued by NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center from northeast Georgia to western North Carolina.

Rainfall totals from northern Georgia to northern South Carolina and western North Carolina could reach 18 inches. As if that weren’t enough, increasingly soggy ground in the Southeast could make it easier for Helene’s winds to knock over trees.

Elsewhere, a broad area of ​​at least 3 inches of rainfall is expected from Florida to the central Appalachians and westward into Kentucky, Tennessee and parts of the mid-Mississippi Valley. At least localized flash flooding is possible in these areas.

Tornado threat

Many hurricanes that make landfall also pose a tornado threat to the right of the wind direction, or in this case, to the east of the wind direction.

Parts of Florida, southeastern Georgia and southern and eastern South Carolina have the greatest chance of a few tornadoes Thursday and Thursday night.

The chance of a few tornadoes could extend into eastern parts of South and North Carolina and southern Virginia on Friday.

Jonathan Erdman is a senior meteorologist at weather.com and has been covering national and international weather since 1996. Extreme and bizarre weather are his favorite subjects. Contact him at X (formerly Twitter), Wires, Facebook And Blue sky.