The Davante Adams era in Las Vegas never made sense for very long. A Raiders team that squeaked into the postseason in 2021 on the back of a winning streak against teams with injured or compromised quarterbacks had an inflated opinion of how close it was to contending. Adams was supposed to be reunited with Derek Carr, his quarterback from his days at Fresno State, but after one year, the Raiders cut Carr and began cycling through replacement-level passers. The Josh McDaniels regime that traded for Adams in 2022 was fired shortly thereafter.

Now, Adams could follow his former coach out the door. Reports on Tuesday suggested the Raiders would consider trading Adams, which would end his tenure with Vegas after a little over two seasons. As a player who turns 32 in December with Gardner Minshew and Aidan O’Connell as his options at quarterback, the idea of spending another year in what amounts to football purgatory understandably might not appeal to the veteran wide receiver.

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Where should he head? And what should the Raiders expect in return? Let’s get a sense of what the Adams trade market might look like in advance of next month’s deadline. First, though, let’s answer three pressing questions:

Jump to a section:
How good is Adams now? Has he regressed?
How much money is he owed now and in 2025?
What could the Raiders expect to get in return?
Which teams should try to trade for Adams?

Should the Raiders trade Adams?

Yes. The move to acquire Adams in the first place didn’t make much sense for the Raiders, who were coming off a 10-7 season with a 6.9-win pythagorean expectation. It didn’t take much self-scouting or analysis to suggest they weren’t a star wide receiver away, and given the sheer number of top-100 picks who had failed to live up to expectations during the Jon Gruden era, the last thing they needed to do was trade away more draft capital and pass on cost-controlled talent.

History suggested making such a big bet on a wide receiver as he was about to turn 30 was too aggressive, especially given where the Raiders were likely to be in terms of contention. They naturally hoped Adams would be an exception, but they got exactly what they could have expected. He was a superstar in his first season with the team, took a notable step backward in Year 2 and was closer to good than great before sitting out last week’s win over the Browns because of a hamstring injury.

The Raiders still need more young talent, and until they make a significant commitment to a quarterback of the future, they’re unlikely to make serious waves as a contender in the AFC. By the time they land that quarterback, Adams is likely to be far past his peak and/or a potential cap casualty. Getting draft capital for him now makes sense.

Where is Adams as a player?

Though any receiver is going to be affected by the quarterback play around him, Adams appears to have taken a step back from his peak years with Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay. From 2018 to 2021, he led the league in receiving yards per game (93.2) and averaged 2.7 yards per route run. The latter figure was topped among wide receivers across the entirety of that four-year stretch by only Michael Thomas.

In Adams’ first season with the Raiders, he kept up that level of play. He averaged 89.2 receiving yards per game in 2022, and his 2.6 yards per route run ranked sixth among all wide receivers. The season earned him his third straight All-Pro nod.

Since then, he hasn’t been quite as impactful. Adams has averaged 67.7 receiving yards per game since the start of last season. He has dropped just below an even 2.0 yards per route run, which ranks 35th among receivers over the past two seasons. Quarterback play is a factor, but he ranks behind Diontae Johnson, Michael Pittman Jr., Amari Cooper and DJ Moore in yards per route run since the start of last season, none of whom have had great signal-callers throwing them the football.

ESPN’s receiver scores showed some slippage even earlier. Adams ranked second in overall score in 2021, but that fell to 22nd in his first season with the Raiders. He has ranked 23rd among wideouts by the same metric since the start of 2023. The 23rd-best wideout in football is still a useful player, of course, but as he enters his mid-30s, history says he’s more likely to take steps backward than forward.

What’s the money situation?

One of the reasons Adams might be available is related to money. His contract takes a massive leap next season, with his base salary jumping from $16.9 million to $35.7 million. None of that money is guaranteed, though, and there’s a decent chance the Raiders might have considered cutting him outright to avoid what would have been a cap hit north of $44 million.

Adams might try to get some of that money guaranteed as part of a trade, since it’s unlikely he would see a $35 million base salary on the open market. Though young stars such as Justin Jefferson are earning that sort of money, the Vikings’ wideout has been far more productive over the past 14 months and is much younger than Adams. This isn’t a league that pays non-quarterbacks on the wrong side of 30 big-money deals in free agency, and when they do, those contracts often end up as disasters, with Von Miller as the most notable recent example.

.@DanGrazianoESPN breaking down what a Davante Adams trade could look like 👀 pic.twitter.com/YEXbbf1WRB

— NFL on ESPN (@ESPNNFL) October 1, 2024

As it stands, the team that trades for Adams would owe him about $13.2 million in base salary over the remainder of the 2024 season, a figure that decreases by $940,000 each week as he gets his game checks. The acquiring team would owe $36.3 million to Adams in 2025 if it kept him on the roster without touching his deal. I wouldn’t be surprised if he worked out a restructured deal with his new team that would come in at a more reasonable price while also netting him significant guaranteed money after 2024. A deal that guaranteed him $25 million for 2025 might make sense.

What could the Raiders expect to get in return?

ESPN’s Adam Schefter reported the Raiders are hoping to land a second-round pick and additional compensation in return for Adams, which seems optimistic, but not impossible. Teams haven’t paid significant draft capital during the season for playmakers in recent years, with one of the few exceptions being the deal the 49ers struck for Christian McCaffrey. Despite reports the Panthers would trade McCaffrey in a deal only for multiple first-round picks, the 49ers eventually sent second-, third-, and fourth-round picks to the Panthers for the star running back. Raiders fans might want that sort of haul for Adams, but McCaffrey was 26 at the time and on a flexible contract for several years to come. Adams is five years older and about to face a contractual impasse.

In terms of wide receivers, Raiders fans might be reminded of the last time they traded a star wideout in-season. They nabbed a first-round pick from the Cowboys in 2018 for Amari Cooper, who proceeded to turn around Dallas’ season and Dak Prescott’s passing numbers in the process. (Gruden turned that pick into safety Johnathan Abram.) Cooper hasn’t been as spectacular as Adams has been at his best, but he was 24 and still on a rookie contract at the time.

The Patriots sent a second-round pick to the Falcons in 2019 for Mohamed Sanu, a wideout who wasn’t in Adams’ league but who came at a much cheaper price. Sanu was owed $3.5 million for the remainder of 2019 and had one year left on his deal at $6 million for 2020. Unfortunately for the Pats, Sanu suffered an ankle injury, came back too quickly and wasn’t even able to make the 2020 roster. It turned out to be a disastrous deal for the Patriots.

The closest comparable might be Randy Moss, who was unexpectedly traded by the Patriots to the Vikings four games into the 2010 season. Moss was 33 at the time of the trade, and the Pats landed a third-round pick and a future seventh-rounder in the deal. That move turned out even more poorly for the acquiring team; the Vikings ended their reunion with Moss after four games, releasing the future Hall of Famer.

There will be a number of teams interested in Adams, which will unquestionably help drive up his value. Given his age, hamstring injury, the amount of money he is owed this season and his uncertain contract situation after 2024, though, a second-round pick might be an aggressive ask, let alone additional compensation. My belief is the Raiders would be more likely to land a third-round pick, perhaps one that could become a second-round pick if he remains on his new team’s roster into the 2025 season.

At the same time, it takes only one team intent on winning a bidding war to change Las Vegas’ minds. And as we start running through potential trade candidates, there’s one team that might need to significantly outbid the competition to land the receiver it needs.

Which teams should try to trade for Adams?

In terms of immediate need, the Chiefs would love to add a wideout with Adams’ talent. They need somebody who can win at all levels, and while he might not be quite as explosive as he once was, he has the ability to assume a major target share immediately in Andy Reid’s offense. Adams would take some of the pressure off Travis Kelce to return to his previous level of form and from Xavier Worthy to emerge as a primary target during his rookie season.

There are more problems with the fit than it might initially seem, though. The Chiefs are already dealing with serious injuries at receiver, with Hollywood Brown out for the regular season and Rashee Rice sidelined indefinitely with an as-yet-determined knee injury. Adams is dealing with a hamstring injury that popped up in practice last week, and while Kansas City will undoubtedly be able to examine him before making a trade, hamstring injuries for wideouts can linger.

I’m not sure Adams would have a long-term future in Kansas City. The Chiefs committed significant draft capital to young wideouts Rice and Worthy, who probably would be penciled in as the team’s top two wideouts next season. They have a quarterback who is probably about to come due for an updated version of his record-setting contract. General manager Brett Veach has paid three star linemen in Jawaan Taylor, Joe Thuney and Creed Humphrey, and a new deal for Trey Smith is likely to follow. Nick Bolton and Justin Reid, two of the team’s top defenders, will be free agents after the season.

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Orlovsky: Jets can win a Super Bowl if they trade for Davante Adams

Dan Orlovsky and Marcus Spears break down the teams that could most benefit from trading for Davante Adams.

The Chiefs also just won two Super Bowls with a very limited wide receiver corps after trading away Tyreek Hill without replacing their former top wideout. They had Kelce in the mix, but they deliberately wanted to shift their roster construction by trading Hill and spreading the money and draft picks acquired for him around the rest of the roster. The 2021 AFC Championship Game, in which the Bengals were able to double-team Kelce and Hill, and shut down the Kansas City offense in the second half, clearly weighed on the decision-makers. I believe they see the idea of an offense that isn’t built around one receiver as a feature as opposed to a problem waiting to be solved.

Oh, after all of that, the Raiders would need to be willing to trade Adams to their hated division rivals and play him twice in 2024 and perhaps again in 2025. That alone might be a deal-breaker. The Raiders might be willing to make that trade only after Week 8, when the Chiefs travel to Las Vegas, which would eliminate the embarrassing scenario of Adams torching his old team in his former stadium a few weeks after being moved. They might not be willing to do it at all. The Chiefs probably would have to pay a premium to beat out similar offers from other teams, given they are divisional opponents and have picks that are all but certain to land at the end of each round. It would be out of character for Veach to make this sort of deal for a player in his mid-30s, but potential three-peats might have a way of altering a team’s typical plans.

What about the long-rumored reunion between Adams and his other former quarterback? Things haven’t gone great for either Adams or Aaron Rodgers since the two parted ways after the 2021 season, and with the Jets all-in to try to win a Super Bowl this season, a trade to reunite one of the league’s most devastating hookups would push them closer.

I’m not sure the fit is quite as comfortable after taking a closer look. For one, the Jets already have three wideouts they’re playing regularly in Garrett Wilson, Mike Williams and fellow former Packers player Allen Lazard, who leads New York with 204 receiving yards this season. Trading for Adams probably would bump Lazard out of the lineup, leaving the Jets with a player making $10 million this season who doesn’t play special teams. They could certainly make that move if necessary, but it’s not as if they have an obvious need at wide receiver.

Money is also a concern. Rodgers’ status after this season is uncertain, but Wilson becomes eligible for an extension in 2025, and he’ll be asking to top Jefferson’s average annual salary of $35 million. Sauce Gardner, the team’s top cornerback, is also due what is expected to be a market-resetting extension, as is lead back Breece Hall. Even if the Jets can talk Adams into a pay cut for next season, would they be comfortable paying $60 million for their top two wideouts?

The Jets would struggle to find the cap room to accommodate both Adams and holdout edge rusher Haason Reddick, who has yet to play this season. The team could try to trade the rights to Reddick as part of the package to land Adams, but one of the few things the Raiders don’t need is an edge rusher. Maxx Crosby is a superstar, and though Malcolm Koonce was lost for the season, Vegas probably wants to give a long look to 2023 top-10 pick Tyree Wilson. A third team (the suddenly edge-needy Cowboys?) probably would need to get involved to make an Adams-Reddick deal work.

If the Jets instead wanted the Raiders to pay down Adams’ salary to make the finances more palatable, they would have to send more draft capital to get the deal done. (If Vegas paid $10 million or so of Adams’ base salary as a bonus and trade sweetener, I would estimate the Jets would need to send back an additional third-round pick.) The Jets have a full complement of picks in 2025, but they’re already missing cost-controlled talent from the past two years after their trades for Reddick and Rodgers.

And if we don’t know what’s going to happen with Rodgers, would Adams really want to make another move where he goes to reunite with an old quarterback, only for that player to leave after one season? If the Jets just decide they want to throw everything they have at a title in 2024, they could justify an Adams deal. But they’re not quite as obvious of a candidate as they might seem.

What if Adams ended up playing against his longtime quarterback in the battle for the AFC East? Though the Bills just endured their worst performance of the season in a blowout loss to the Ravens, they sit atop the division at 3-1. Josh Allen has made it work with a relatively unheralded receiver corps so far, but general manager Brandon Beane already knows the value of having a star wideout on the roster. He tried to trade for Antonio Brown before eventually landing Stefon Diggs, who helped unlock a new level from Allen as the quarterback grew into a perennial MVP candidate.

Again, though, age and salary matter. Diggs was 26 when the Bills acquired the then-Vikings wideout in 2020, and he was on a team-friendly contract for several seasons to come. Beane made a big splash in free agency when he signed the 33-year-old Von Miller to a deal with three guaranteed years back in 2022, but that move was already a disaster for Buffalo before Miller was suspended on Tuesday after violating the league’s personal conduct policy.

Like the Chiefs after Hill, the Bills appeared to be using their offseason trade of Diggs to the Texans to shift their offense toward bigger personnel packages and away from the clear star wideout approach. Beane could decide to flip and return to the team’s former philosophy if Adams is available, but it would be a surprise. This team seems more likely to focus on young talent as opposed to older players.

Though the Chargers have fallen to 2-2, there’s plenty to be excited about their start under Jim Harbaugh. The defense looks excellent, although Joey Bosa has been in and out of the lineup because of injuries. The bye week should allow a number of key players a much-needed week of rest, and with the Broncos and Cardinals coming afterward, Los Angeles could be in position to approach the trade deadline as an AFC wild-card team.

Justin Herbert could use another wideout after the team jettisoned Keenan Allen and Mike Williams in the offseason, but I’m not sure they’re in position to take a significant swing on Adams given their short-term cap concerns. Quentin Johnston has looked better in his second season, and Ladd McConkey is going to get time to develop into a starting role. And as another team in the AFC West, if the Raiders aren’t going to send Adams to the Chiefs, they certainly aren’t going to ship him to their rivals in L.A.

After nearly trading for Brandon Aiyuk, the Steelers could go back into the market for another wide receiver to team up alongside third-year pro George Pickens. At 3-1, Pittsburgh sits atop the AFC North, and it has little to be enthused about at wide receiver behind Pickens. Van Jefferson has only 36 receiving yards on 73 routes this season. His 0.5 yards per route run figure ranks 94th out of 100 wideouts. With the Steelers spending less at quarterback than any other team, they can afford a No. 1 wideout like Adams in ways the Chiefs, Bills and Jets cannot.

Again, though, there are massive differences here between Aiyuk and Adams, most notably with age. Aiyuk is still only 26. The Steelers would have been trading for Aiyuk’s prime, which isn’t the case with Adams. When the Steelers have been willing to shift significant draft capital in recent years, it has been for young players such as Aiyuk and Minkah Fitzpatrick, who was in his second season as a pro when Pittsburgh sent a first-round pick to Miami to acquire the star safety in 2019.

There’s also the realistic question of how often this offense is actually going to pass. The Steelers pass rate is 9% below expectation this season, as a Justin Fields and Arthur Smith-led offense is unsurprisingly choosing to run the ball at a rate above league average. Falcons fans know what it’s like to see a Smith offense pass up opportunities to get the ball to highly regarded playmakers so the backup tight ends can get touches instead. The Steelers can justify Adams, but I’m not sure it’s the best possible fit.

As an organization, the Ravens have loved collecting veteran wideouts when other teams think they’re through. They signed Derrick Mason and Steve Smith on the wrong side of 30 and coaxed 1,000-yard seasons out of each. They signed Odell Beckham Jr. before last season to a one-year deal worth $15 million. They also swapped midround picks with the Cardinals in a 2010 deal for Anquan Boldin, who was about to turn 30, and saw him help lead the offense to a Super Bowl. With Rashod Bateman often struggling to stay healthy next to Zay Flowers, and Mark Andrews struggling to make an impact, would another move for a veteran wideout benefit the Ravens?

The issue here is philosophy. Note that the Ravens signed all of those players in free agency besides Boldin, who was acquired in mid-March with a fifth-round pick for third- and fourth-round selections. The Ravens would absolutely be interested in signing Adams as a free agent if he were cut after the season, but trading a Day 2 draft pick for a short-term rental is not typically how this organization operates. It sent a third-round pick to the Vikings for Yannick Ngakoue a couple of years ago, but that was in a situation in which it would have been in position to recoup a compensatory pick for the edge rusher if he left in free agency. The Ravens eventually landed a fourth-rounder.

Adams wouldn’t be eligible for a compensatory pick if the Ravens cut him after the season. They might not have the financial flexibility to afford Adams beyond this season given Lamar Jackson’s salary, and if they are going to add help on offense before the deadline, the offensive line seems like a bigger problem to attack.

Getting creative, would a swap of Adams for Amari Cooper work? The Browns were a playoff team last season, so Adams could justify moving to a team theoretically more competitive than his current one, although the Raiders did beat the Browns in Week 4. Cooper is also looking for a new contract, and most of the notable names in personnel from the Gruden era who decided to trade Cooper are no longer part of the organization. Would Raiders fans who held onto their old Cooper jerseys be willing to welcome home their former No. 1 wideout?

Maybe, but would this make a ton of sense for the Browns? They can afford the move, but they already restructured Cooper’s deal down to a minimum base salary of $1.2 million to keep him tradeable. Having already paid him more than $19 million this season, they would now be on the hook for $13 million more, taking their payout for a deal north of $30 million in 2024.

Wide receiver might be a place where the Browns cut back. They’ve already signed Jerry Jeudy to an extension that will pay him $16 million next season. David Njoku is under contract. General manager Andrew Berry might also need to spend to address the offensive line, which has dealt with injuries and struggled mightily this season. Cleveland is also missing years of cost-controlled talent after their disastrous trade for Deshaun Watson. I can see the logic in a swap, but it would be more of a last resort than a priority for either side.

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McAfee wonders whether Davante Adams is on the move

Pat McAfee and Darius Butler discuss whether Davante Adams’ time with the Raiders may soon be coming to an end.

Naturally, the Cowboys are always going to be in the discussion whenever a star player hits the trade market. After signing Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb to massive extensions, team owner Jerry Jones has been forced to cry poverty as a justification for not signing Derrick Henry. Dallas has started 2-2, but having just lost Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence to injuries, this doesn’t feel like a team heading in the right direction.

Trading for Adams would certainly attract attention and take some of the pressure off Lamb, but it would be a cosmetic move. With Lamb, Prescott and Parsons likely to make north of $120 million combined next year once the edge rusher gets his new deal, the Cowboys will already be heavily committed to three star players. Brandin Cooks is already making $8 million this season to be the second wideout, so he would either be displaced or need to be moved as part of an Adams deal. This team desperately needs help running the football and stopping the run. Trading for a wide receiver instead would, well, actually would be a very Cowboys move.

You could understand the sentiment in wanting to bring back a franchise favorite given the youthfulness of Green Bay’s receiver corps and the injuries that have repeatedly befallen Christian Watson, with the most recent issue being a high-ankle sprain. Reacquiring Adams would take some of the load off the remaining receivers and provide the wide receivers room with a model from which to base its own growth.

It’s not likely. The Packers have deliberately chosen to go younger across the board and field the youngest team in football. Like the Chiefs, I believe they see the variety of options they present Jordan Love in lieu of a top wide receiver as a strength of their roster. And with so much young talent, one of Watson, Jayden Reed, Romeo Doubs and Dontayvion Wicks is likely to emerge as a legitimate top wideout before the end of the season. I wouldn’t count on this one happening.

Again, we always have to do our due diligence and mention the Rams when a star player hits the trade market. Sean McVay is trying to win another Super Bowl while Matthew Stafford is playing at a high level, and they suddenly have a major need at wide receiver with Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp both out indefinitely. The Raiders might hesitate to trade Adams to the archrival Chargers as they battle for the hearts and minds of Los Angeles residents whose fandom has been impacted by relocations, but would they consider shipping him to the Rams if it meant Adams moved back to the NFC?

Though you can never rule anything out with the Rams, I wouldn’t count on them being the favorites in the Adams sweepstakes. Their big recent trade acquisitions — Cooks, Sammy Watkins, Jalen Ramsey and Marcus Peters — have generally been players in their mid-20s on rookie deals. The exceptions were Stafford, for whom the rules are different as a quarterback, and Von Miller, who was a pure rental. They sent a pair of Day 2 picks to the Broncos for Miller and got Denver to pay down the edge rusher’s salary in the process.

The Rams could get out from the Kupp deal after this season, and given his injury issues, I wouldn’t be surprised if they chose to go in that direction. Adams could be a short- and medium-term replacement for Kupp if the 2021 Offensive Player of the Year isn’t expected to return anytime soon. With just $3.5 million in cap space, though, L.A. would need the Raiders to eat some money to get this deal done, which could make the draft capital required to complete the deal unpalatable.

Let’s finish with the team that makes the most sense in a potential Adams deal. I’ll start by introducing a video from my colleague Mina Kimes, who might actually be able to see the future given that she predicted this very trade in our joint podcast with Domonique Foxworth before the season:

ESPN’s Mina Kimes predicts that Raiders WR Davante Adams will be a Washington Commander by mid-season 😳

“…the Commanders strike me as a team that are going to be like just feisty enough to want to do this (trade)…”

(🎥:@FoxworthShow) pic.twitter.com/tXSp2SFps0

— brandon (@JayDanielsMVP) September 4, 2024

Since then, all the Commanders have done is start 3-1 while fielding one of the most explosive offenses in league history through four games. Jayden Daniels looks like an instant superstar quarterback, and he’s doing that with Olamide Zaccheaus and Noah Brown running regular routes across from Terry McLaurin. Washington could easily justify adding another veteran wide receiver to the mix, especially as Daniels will be on a rookie deal through the 2027 season.

General manager Adam Peters has shown a desire to add veteran talent to the roster, having quietly spent meaningful amounts of money on both sides of the ball this offseason to add competent veterans Dorance Armstrong, Bobby Wagner and Tyler Biadasz. Peters appears to be pursuing the same Texans-style accelerated rebuild that Nick Caserio implemented to jump-start Houston into the playoff picture once it found its quarterback in C.J. Stroud. This could be the Commanders’ version of Caserio’s trade for Stefon Diggs. They still have more than $26 million in cap space and would have no trouble fitting Adams on the roster.

And for an ownership group that wants to do whatever it can to bring back lapsed fans after the disastrous decades of the Daniel Snyder era in Washington, this would be the sort of move that would draw eyeballs and attention back to the DMV. The Commanders’ playoff odds are already all the way up to 62.8%. They have to battle only the league’s seventh-easiest schedule the rest of the way. Daniels looks as if he’s about to become the face of the franchise. Trading for Adams would be a statement of intent, a sign this franchise will strike when the iron is hot and do what it takes to build a real winner.

The Raiders surely wouldn’t mind sending Adams to the NFC and all the way to the East Coast. And Daniels would immediately be blessed with one of the best wide receiver duos in the game. It might not be the high-profile move to the Chiefs or Jets that many would figure, but Adams to the Commanders would be the best fit for all parties involved.