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Hurricane Kirk, Tropical Storm Leslie, Gulf System

Vaseline October 4, 2024

(This story has been updated to add new information.)

The National Hurricane Center is now monitoring four tropical disturbances, including two that could hit Florida this weekend or early next week.

Hurricane Kirk is a Category 4 hurricane with winds of 130 miles per hour and intensity fluctuations are possible tonight. Large waves from Kirk could bring life-threatening surf and currents to the US East Coast by Sunday.

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The other system that could impact Florida is the disturbance forecasters have been watching all week: a trough of low pressure in the Caribbean Sea that has now moved into the Gulf of Mexico. According to the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center, a tropical or subtropical depression or storm could form early to mid next week, depending on environmental conditions.

“Regardless of tropical or subtropical development, locally heavy rainfall is possible over parts of Mexico and over parts of the Florida Peninsula in the coming days late this weekend into next week,” the Hurricane Center said. View the latest forecast and radar throughout Florida.

Also in the Atlantic Basin – which consists of the North Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico – is Tropical Storm Leslie, which could become a hurricane that is not expected tonight or Saturday and is expected to hit Florida or the U.S. won’t hit.

At 2 p.m., the National Hurricane Center issued an advisory of a new tropical wave expected to move off the coast of Africa early next week.

The next named storms in the Atlantic hurricane season are Milton and Nadine.

Is a hurricane coming to Florida?

At this time, a hurricane is not expected to hit Florida, but this is still not outside the realm of possibility.

A tropical or subtropical depression or storm could form in the Gulf of Mexico early to mid next week, depending on environmental conditions, according to the Hurricane Center.

“While the exact track and intensity of the phenomenon unfolding in the wave have yet to be determined, Florida will bear the brunt this time,” said Bernie Rayno, AccuWeather’s chief meteorologist.

“While activity is still unorganized, almost every indicator suggests a feature will form in the southwestern Gulf and track northeastward and across the Florida Peninsula from late this weekend through the middle of next week,” AccuWeather said.

“At this point, the intensity will range from an extended tropical rainstorm to perhaps an attack of a more compact, full-fledged hurricane,” Rayno said.

Here is the latest update from the National Hurricane Center as of Friday, October 4 at 5 p.m.:

Hurricane Kirk: What You Need to Know

Location: 960 miles east-northeast of the Northern Leeward Islands; 1,645 miles west-southwest of the Azores
Maximum sustained wind: 210 km/h
Movement: northwest at 19 km/h

➤ Spaghetti Models for Hurricane Kirk

At 5 p.m., the center of Hurricane Kirk was located near latitude 23.7 north and longitude 49.4 west.

Kirk is moving northwest at 12 miles per hour.

A turn to the north and northeast with higher forward speed is expected over the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are now near 130 mph with higher gusts. Kirk is a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

Small intensity fluctuations are possible today and tonight.

The weakening is expected to begin on Saturday and continue until early next week.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 35 miles from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 220 miles.

Impact: The Kirk-generated swell is spreading westward and is expected to reach the Leeward Islands later today, Bermuda and the Greater Antilles on Saturday, the east coast of the United States, Atlantic Canada and the Bahamas on Sunday, and the Azores on Monday.

Tropical Storm Leslie: What you need to know

Location: 695 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands
Maximum sustained wind: 70 km/h
Movement: west-northwest at 11 km/h

➤ Spaghetti models for Tropical Storm Leslie

At 5:00 PM EDT, the center of Tropical Storm Leslie was located near latitude 10.3 north and longitude 33.6 west.

Leslie is moving west-northwest at a speed of 7 miles per hour and this motion is expected to continue through Saturday.

A turn to the northwest and an increase in driving speeds are expected from early Sunday through Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to nearly 75 miles per hour with higher gusts.

Further strengthening is forecast and Leslie is expected to become a hurricane tonight or Saturday. Tropical storm force winds extend up to 70 miles from the center.

Impact: No consequences for the country are expected.

What else is there and how likely is it to get stronger?

Gulf of Mexico: A trough of low pressure over the western Gulf of Mexico is causing widespread showers and thunderstorms.

A broad area of low pressure is expected to develop from this system over the southwestern or south-central Gulf of Mexico over the next two days, and further further development is possible as the low pressure area slowly moves eastward or northeastward.

➤ Tropical threat in the Gulf of Mexico could hit Florida with 1 to 12 inches of rain

A tropical or subtropical depression or storm could form early to mid next week if the low remains separated from a frontal boundary expected to extend across the Gulf of Mexico next week.

Impact: Regardless of tropical or subtropical development, locally heavy rainfall may occur over parts of Mexico in the coming days and over parts of the Florida Peninsula late this weekend and into next week.

Probability of formation during 48 hours: low, 10 percent.
Formation chance during 7 days: average, 50 percent.

Far East tropical Atlantic Ocean: A tropical wave is expected to move westward from the coast of Africa on Monday or Tuesday.

Some development of this system is possible thereafter as it moves westward or west-northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.

Probability of formation during 48 hours: low, almost 0 percent.
Formation chance during 7 days: low, 20 percent.

What do the colored areas on the NOAA map mean?

The shaded areas on a tropical scout map “indicate areas where a tropical cyclone — which could be a tropical depression, tropical storm or hurricane — could develop,” said Jamie Rhome, deputy director of the National Hurricane Center.

The colors make it visibly clear how likely it is that a system can develop where yellow is low, orange is medium and red is high.

The National Hurricane Center generally does not issue tropical advisories until there is a named storm, but there is an exception.

“If a system is near land and there is potential for development, the National Hurricane Center will not wait before issuing an advisory, even if the system has not become a full-blown storm. This gives residents time to prepare Rhome said.

Who is likely to be affected?

Hurricane Kirk is expected to remain in the central Atlantic Ocean, but swells from the storm are expected to reach the US East Coast and the Bahamas on Sunday, bringing life-threatening surf and dangerous currents.

According to Dr. Ryan Truchelut, chief meteorologist at WeatherTiger, all residents along the Gulf Coast, including Florida, should watch the system move into the Gulf of Mexico. Truchelut is a Florida-based meteorologist who works with the USA TODAY Network.

➤ Excessive rainfall forecast

Heavy rainfall, up to 3 inches in some areas, is likely in central and southern Florida between Sunday and Tuesday, Truchelut said.

Some locations could see several inches to a foot or more of rain, with most of the rainfall likely from Interstate 4 south to the Keys, according to AccuWeather. Up to 30 centimeters of rain may fall in some locations.

Tropical Storm Leslie and the tropical wave expected to move off the coast of Africa next week are still too far from the US to determine if there will be any impacts to Florida or the US, but at this time none expected.

Forecasters urge all residents to continue to monitor the tropics and always be prepared. That advice is especially important ahead of what is expected to be a very active hurricane season.

Weather watches and warnings issued in Florida

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When is hurricane season over?

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30.

The Atlantic Basin includes the North Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico.

When is the peak of hurricane season?

The peak of the season was September 10, with most activity occurring between mid-August and mid-October, the Hurricane Center said.

National Hurricane Center Map: What Are Forecasters Looking At Now?

Systems currently monitored by the National Hurricane Center include:

Interactive map: hurricanes, tropical storms that have passed near your city

Excessive rainfall forecast

What’s next?

We will continue to update our tropical weather coverage daily. Download the app from your local site to ensure you’re always up to date with the news. And look here for our special subscription offers.

(This story has been updated to add new information.)