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Dodgers vs. Padres Game 4 prediction, odds: NLDS best bets, picks

A case can be made that Wednesday’s MLB playoff round is the most intriguing of the entire season, as baseball fans will be treated to four key games in the Divisional Round.

The San Diego nightclub features one of two potential closeout games on the day as the Dodgers look to avoid elimination and force a decisive Game 5 against the Padres.

The Padres were my pick to win it all in the playoffs. At the time they were +1200 long shots, but after beating the Dodgers in Game 3 they are the favorite (+270, FanDuel), ahead of the Yankees (+320) and Mets (+550).

San Diego would love nothing more than to close out the series at home, while the Dodgers look to get the series back to Chavez Ravine for a winner-take-all on Friday.

Because both teams are super motivated, you can expect lots of fireworks again on Wednesday evening.

Dodgers vs. Padres Game 4 NLDS Odds

Team Moneyline Run line Top/Bottom
Evaders +115 +1.5 (-180) o8 (-105)
Fathers -135 -1.5 (+150) u8 (-115)
Odds via bet365

Dodgers vs. Padres Prediction

Thanks to several pitchers with notable injuries, including Tyler Glasnow and Gavin Stone, the Dodgers’ starting rotation looked unconvincing entering the NLDS.

The lack of quality starters in Los Angeles was the main reason why the Padres became a trendy choice to eliminate their in-state rival, but no one could have imagined what actually happened in the first three games of the series.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Jack Flaherty and Walker Buehler have combined for a 10.13 ERA in just 13 1/3 innings of work.

Now the Dodgers are opting for a bullpen matchup, with Landon Knack expected to lead the parade of relievers in what could be his first career playoff start.

If Dodgers fans want to look at things with a glass-half-full approach, Knack’s 3.78 xERA and 104 Stuff+ suggest he could give them a better shot than Buehler did in Tuesday’s 6-5 loss.

Buehler gave up six runs on seven hits in five innings.

A more pessimistic view would be that Knack is just another judge, which was part of the problem for the Dodgers entering the series.


Mookie Betts homered in the first inning of Game 3, but the Dodgers couldn't hold on to the lead.
Mookie Betts homered in the first inning of Game 3, but the Dodgers couldn’t hold on to the lead. Getty Images

The Padres have been drastically less effective against left-handed pitching this season, and LA doesn’t have a starter to expose that flaw.

If the Dodgers drop this game and the series, a lot of the blame will fall on players like Mookie Betts, Max Muncy and Will Smith, who have now been part of several playoff disappointments.

This year’s potential early exit would be a different story, however, as the Dodgers’ offense was effective against an elite San Diego pitching staff.

They’ll be hoping for more of the same when they get another crack at right-hander Dylan Cease, who allowed five earned runs in just 3 1/3 innings in Game 1.


Learn everything you need to know about MLB betting


Dodgers vs. Padres pick

The Dodgers finished the regular season second in wRC+ versus righties, which was one spot above the Padres. Both offenses have shown great tackling in this series, and I don’t believe either unit will be shut down by Wednesday’s starters.

I would bet on another shootout between these two teams and bet the match will go over eight runs at something better than -125.

Pick: Over 8 (+100, BetMGM)


Why trust New York Post betting

Nicholas Martin handicaps the NHL, MLB and NFL for the New York Post. He strives to include relevant game notes in articles to help bettors reach their own conclusions, but he has also gone up 180 units himself with verified picks on a sports betting app. You can find Nick at X @nickm_hockey.