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    Why Tampa Bay was spared from Hurricane Milton’s massive storm surge

    Vaseline Posted on

    Water levels in Tampa Bay returned to normal levels on Thursday. The area experienced a ‘reverse storm surge’ that pushed water away from the coastline.

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    Water levels in Tampa Bay returned to normal levels Thursday morning following the passage of Hurricane Milton, which briefly caused a “reverse storm surge” in the bay.

    National Weather Service meteorologist Tyler Fleming confirmed to USA TODAY that Tampa Bay was apparently spared the massive storm surge that was feared, but instead a reverse wave occurred that pushed water away from the coastline.

    State Division of Emergency Management warned residents in a social media post Wednesday evening not to walk into the receding water because “the water WILL return due to storm surge and poses a life-threatening risk.”

    But on Thursday morning everything was clear. Weather Service Meteorologist Stephen Shiveley confirmed to USA TODAY that waters in the bay are “returning to normal levels.”

    Why was Tampa spared?

    Storms that make landfall south of Tampa generally mean less storm surge for Tampa.

    Because Milton’s center of circulation made landfall just over 20 miles (30 kilometers) south, the highly vulnerable Tampa Bay narrowly avoided the most catastrophic storm surge.

    While the water shot higher at the tide gauges along the coast south of Siesta Key and Sarasota when Milton made landfall Wednesday, the gauges around the bay dropped.

    Tampa was ‘very lucky’

    Tampa Bay itself was once again spared the worst of the storm surge, AccuWeather hurricane expert Alex DaSilva said. Tampa’s remarkable streak of avoiding a direct hit from a major hurricane continues with Milton.

    The city has not had a direct hit since 1921.

    DaSilva said there is no geographic or topographical reason — or even a meteorological reason — for Tampa’s streak. “They were very lucky,” he said.

    Wobbles and bobs

    Milton’s final landfall fell squarely within the hurricane center’s “cone of uncertainty.”

    As predicted, small last-minute fluctuations and fluctuations in Milton’s path could make a huge difference in where landfall occurs and therefore where the worst of the storm surge occurs, Da Silva said.

    “Luckily for Tampa, the storm hit to the south, near Sarasota,” he said.

    What is reverse storm surge?

    A storm surge occurs when a tropical storm or hurricane pushes water onto the coast, causing catastrophic flooding along the coast and in bays and inlets.

    It happened in Florida during Hurricanes Irma and Ian, said WeatherTiger meteorologist Ryan Truchelut.

    During reverse storm surges, especially larger storms, the opposite happens, AccuWeather meteorologist Paul Pastelok said after Hurricane Ian hit. “It can pull the water out because the wind current comes from the land to the ocean and pushes the water,” he said. “The power of the wind is incredible.”

    According to Pastelok, the result is bare ground in some places, especially along the coastline.

    According to the National Weather Service office in the Tampa Bay area, the phenomenon can occur during any hurricane, whether it makes landfall along the U.S. East Coast or in the Gulf.

    Why does a reverse storm surge occur?

    Storm surge can occur near and to the right of where a storm makes landfall, but negative water levels can occur to the left of the landfall location, said weather service meteorologist Ernie Jillson. Tampa Bay was to the left of where Ian made landfall when the wind blew from the northeast, he said.

    And on Wednesday it appears to have happened again with Milton.

    It depends on the shape of the waterway, and bays are more sensitive because they look like a bowl of water,” Jillson told USA TODAY. “They are protected by land on all sides except one, so that’s why they’re so susceptible to depopulation.”

    According to Pastelok, how dramatic the phenomenon appears depends on the intensity of the storm.

    (This story has been updated with new information.)

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