NY17: Michael Lawler (R) 45%, Mondaire Jones (D) 44%

NY18: Pat Ryan (D) 48%, Alison Esposito (R) 43%

New Emerson College Polling/PIX11/The Hill research in New York’s 17th and 18th congressional districts shows the elections for the two U.S. House seats are tight. In the 17th District, 45% support incumbent Republican Congressman Michael Lawler, while 44% support former Congressman Mondaire Jones. Three percent support Working Families Party Anthony Frascone, and 7% are undecided.

“Mondaire Jones leads among young voters under 40, 51% to 40%, and those in their 40s, 45% to 41%, but trails among voters over 50, 49% to 40%,” says Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said. “The Working Families Party candidate also gets 6% among voters under 40.”

Lawler has a 47% favorable rating in the district, while 40% have an unfavorable view of him. Thirteen percent don’t know him. Jones has a favorable rating of 40%, while 40% have an unfavorable view of him. Twenty percent don’t know Jones.

In the 18th District, 48% plan to support incumbent Democratic Rep. Pat Ryan, while 43% support Republican Alison Esposito, and 10% are undecided.

“There is a sharp gender divide in the 18th District: men break for Esposito, 52% to 40%, while women break for Ryan, 54% to 34%,” Kimball added.

A majority of voters (52%) have a favorable view of Ryan, while 37% have an unfavorable view of him and 11% do not know the congressman. Forty-seven percent have a favorable view of Esposito, while 30% have an unfavorable view of her.

The presidential elections are neck-and-neck in both NY17 and 18. In the 17th district, 49% support Kamala Harris, and 49% support Donald Trump for president. In the 18th District, 48% support Donald Trump, while 47% support Harris.

The top issue for NY17 voters is the economy (32%), followed by immigration (20%), housing affordability (13%), crime (11%) and threats to democracy (10%). The top issue for NY18 voters is the economy (39%), housing affordability (16%), immigration (14%), threats to democracy (11%) and crime (6%).

Voters were asked whether the number of migrants seeking refuge in the United States is a crisis, a problem but not a crisis, or not a problem at all. A majority of voters in both districts think it is a crisis: 56% in NY17 and 53% in NY18. Thirty-four percent in NY17 and 35% in NY18 think it is a problem but not a crisis, while 10% in NY17 and 13% in NY18 think it is not a problem at all.

Methodology

The Emerson College Polling/Pix11/The Hill 17th district and 18th district surveys were conducted October 1-3, 2024. The sample of likely voters in New York’s 17th district is n=630. The sample of likely voters from New York’s 18th district is n=630. The polls have a credibility interval, comparable to the margin of error (MOE) of a poll, of +/- 3.8 percentage points. The datasets are weighted by gender, education, race, age, and party affiliation based on 2024 likely voter models. State-by-state turnout modeling is based on parameters from the U.S. Census, exit polls, and voter registration data.

It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics, such as gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity, carry higher credibility intervals as the sample size decreases. Poll results should be understood within the range of the poll’s scores, and with a 95% confidence interval, 1 in 20 times a poll will fall outside the range of the scores.

Data was collected by contacting mobile phones via MMS-to-web text (phone directory provided by Aristotle) ​​and an online panel of voters provided by CINT. The survey was presented in English.

All questions asked in this survey, with exact wording, along with full results, demographics, and cross-tabulation, can be found under Full Results. The studies were funded by Nexstar Media.

NY17 FULL RESULTS

NY18 FULL RESULTS