The line-up came within 0.12 points of cashing last week, which isn’t bad considering all that went wrong.

Feast-or-famine roller coaster Josh Allen (14.64 DraftKings points) has taken another dive. Allen failed to score at least 15 points for the third time in the past four weeks. This season he surpassed 30 in his other two games.

Allen’s performance kept my Curtis Samuel flyer (0.9 points) from taking off.

Lamar Jackson actually threw three touchdowns to tight ends in a high-scoring affair with the Bengals, but none of them were named Mark Andrews (9.5 points), who actually had four receptions for 55 yards in his best game of the season.

My saving grace was Ja’Marr Chase (44.30 points), who rushed for 193 yards on 10 receptions and two touchdowns against the Ravens.

This week’s list includes two games with a total of over 50 points, and both are infinitely stackable. The Commanders-Ravens features the two best fantasy quarterbacks in the league. The Lions-Cowboys have two high-powered offenses, two mid-range defenses and the top two wide receivers on the slate.

I focus my attention on the latter this week.

The preamble

Coming up with the perfect Daily Fantasy Sports strategy for the NFL can be a challenge, which is why I’m here every week to help.

At DraftKings, it’s important to remember that you’re playing full-point PPR with bonuses when a player exceeds 300 passing yards, 100 rushing yards, or 100 receiving yards.

Here is my optimal lineup for Sunday’s NFL $3 Million Fantasy Football Millionaire game, but it can be used as a base in other games and platforms.

All prices listed are from DraftKings with a budget of $50,000.

The Optimal Lineup has grossed $117.86 this season, so I’m in the black at $32.86 with an average score of 132.57 points over five weeks.

Year to date results

Week 1: 90.16

Week 2: 144.38

Week 3: 100.38

Week 4: 180.78

Week 5: 147.14

Week 6 Setup

QB: Dak Prescott, Cowboys ($6,700)

The over/under is 52.5 points, the highest total on the list, with the Lions favored by 3. Dallas has not consistently run the ball well and will likely be chasing points against Detroit’s pass funnel defense, which is quite is good against flight. Prescott is second in pass attempts (191), third in passing yards per game (284.8) and fifth in TD passes (eight).

RB: Bucky Irving, Buccaneers ($5,400)

Rachaad White, who was limited with a foot injury on Wednesday before missing practices on Thursday and Friday, is questionable to play in New Orleans. The first month of this season, I wrote in my Waiver Wire Targets column on sandiegouniontribune.com that Irving had been the more explosive option for Tampa Bay, and would likely replace White at some point this season. He had already run for 60 more yards on seven fewer carries, while scoring the Buccaneers’ only rushing TD off a running back. He’s an excellent salary saver this week.

RB: Tyler Allgeier, Falcons ($5,100)

Many expect Atlanta to finally release Bijan Robinson against the Panthers, but my gut tells me he’s playing injured and a lingering hamstring issue could hold him back in a premium matchup. Carolina has allowed the second-most fantasy points to running backs this season, including nine touchdowns in five games, so the Falcons will run the ball no matter what. Allgeier provides leverage against Robinson, and if Atlanta takes a big lead or runs out the clock late, Allgeier would likely see those carries. So there is value in it even if Robinson plays well.

WR: CeeDee Lamb, Cowboys ($8,600)

Lamb has yet to surpass 100 receiving yards in the past five weeks, and the Lions have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to wide receivers this season. They’ve already allowed over 100 yards rushing to Cooper Kupp and Chris Godwin, and Lamb is a better version of both. He absolutely beat Detroit in Week 17 last year with 13 receptions on 17 targets for 227 yards and a touchdown.

WR: AJ Brown, Eagles ($7,800)

Brown has been on the shelf since the opener in Brazil, where he had five receptions on 10 targets for 119 yards and a touchdown against the Packers. He missed three games with a hamstring injury and Philadelphia had a bye last week. Many may dismiss the top-tier playmaker in his first game back, but the Browns defense is hurting and playing an incredible amount of man coverage. They’ve played man on at least 50% of their opponents’ pass plays in three straight games, and that’s playing with fire against Brown.

WR: Xavier Hutchinson, Texans ($3,300)

Hutchinson has mainly acted as Nico Collins’ understudy since preseason. Collins is on IR and either Stefon Diggs or Tank Dell are overshadowed by the Patriots’ Christian Gonzalez. Hutchinson was highly productive at Iowa State as Brock Purdy’s favorite receiver, producing 254 receptions for 2,929 yards and 15 TDs during his three seasons in Ames. He provides leverage against those who believe this is Dell’s big opportunity now that Collins is out.

TE: Sam LaPorta, Lions ($5,500)

On the other side of my Cowboys double-stack, I bring back LaPorta. After having one of the best rookie seasons for a tight end in NFL history, he still hasn’t scored double-digit fantasy points in a single game (he did it 10 times last season). Honestly, it’s not his fault. LaPorta has been targeted just 14 times in four games. Coming off a bye week, I think offensive coordinator Ben Johnson involves him early (and often) with Dallas.

FLEX: Jalen Tolbert, Cowboys ($5,000)

Tolbert has been the overall WR24 in PPR formats since Week 2, producing seven receptions on 10 targets for 87 yards and the game-winning TD against the Steelers on Sunday night with Brandin Cooks (knee) sidelined. Cooks was placed on injured reserve last week. Tolbert leads Dallas with five targets in the red zone, and the Lions have allowed the third-most receiving yards per game to surround wide receivers.

Daylight Savings Time: Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($2,600)

With Derek Carr out with an oblique injury, the Saints will start rookie Spencer Rattler in a key divisional game. The fifth-rounder looked like he had a lot of work to do this preseason, so I’m not convinced he’ll be able to handle the pressure of the moment or the barrage of blitzes that Todd Bowles will throw his way sends. This also correlates well with Irving having a big game.

Originally published: October 12, 2024 at 2:40 PM