As we have done in the past, below are the keys and my prediction that the Pittsburgh Steelers will win (or lose) today’s game. Three things need to happen for them to end up on the right side of the score and vice versa in their Week 6 matchup against the Las Vegas Raiders.

My Steelers prediction is at the bottom.

The Steelers will win if…

1. The pressure is on Aidan O’Connell, especially from D-Line

Figuratively and literally. Pittsburgh’s pass rush is hurting without Nick Herbig and Alex Highsmith and the Raiders will focus all their energy on TJ Watt. Still, the Steelers need to go home and put pressure on O’Connell, a second-year player making the first start of 2024. Our pre-draft scouting report noted that he struggles when pressured and the Steelers could get after him against a young o-line. that’s had to do with a little bit of injury.

But the Steelers also need to get ahead and stop the Raiders’ run game. Force O’Connell to win this one without staying on schedule. That would ask a lot of him and should put Pittsburgh in position for a convincing victory.

2. George Pickens bounces back

It’s been a noisy week for Pickens and for all the wrong reasons. Wherever you fall on the worry meter, he’ll need a good performance to silence the critics, just like he did against the Cincinnati Bengals last year. This is a secondary that the Steelers can deploy and Pickens should get the ball early, something the team did poorly at in last week’s loss. I would expect a different looking game plan and box score this time.

3. Brock Bowers is placed in brackets

With Davante Adams out and Jakobi Meyers likely to follow, the Raiders don’t have much use at receiver. That will make them even more dependent on rookie TE Brock Bowers, even though he comes into this game leading the team in targets, receptions, yards and big plays.

Pittsburgh should treat him like a receiver and criticize him on possessions, which they have lost far too often in the last two games. It wouldn’t be unreasonable to have CB Joey Porter Jr. or FS Minkah Fitzpatrick to blame him if the situation calls for it. Bowers can’t run loose.

The Steelers will lose if…

1. Pittsburgh can’t run on the Raiders 5-2 front

Statistically, the Raiders haven’t had a good defense this season and losing star DT Christian Wilkins to a foot injury is a major blow. Still, they present some schematic challenges. Their 5-2 front that they use on early downs, even against 11 men, is something the Steelers have struggled to find success with against other teams in recent years. Tough to get a runway for someone like RB Najee Harris.

After two disappointing/underwhelming performances against the Colts and Cowboys, there is no guarantee the Steelers will find their feet today. Although it helps to have Jaylen Warren and the same starting five in back-to-back games for the first time this year.

2. The Raiders’ offensive speed wins

The Raiders don’t have the firepower to execute cohesive 15-play drives against the Steelers. They miss too much offensively. But playing a big game can take away that need. There is some speed here with WR Tre Tucker and Bowers has been a YAC monster this season. Pittsburgh has allowed the big play too often in the last two games. Only the Jacksonville Jaguars have allowed more than the Steelers have allowed nine over the last two weeks. Las Vegas will be looking to make the big play against Pittsburgh’s defense.

3. Steelers are getting sloppy

Worry about Steelers beating Steelers. Turnovers, penalties and defensive communication remain difficult. It would be a Steelers-like thing to see happen and a cause of the team’s losing streak. Pittsburgh is the better team. But that doesn’t always mean they win. Allowing the Raiders to hang around is a recipe for disaster.

Prediction

Steelers: 20
Robbers: 16

Seasonal forecast record

(2-3, a three-game slip)