Week 6 of the 2024 NFL season concludes with an AFC East “Monday Night Football” showdown between Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills against Aaron Rodgers and the New York Jets from MetLife Stadium (8:15 PM ET on ESPN). The Jets come in at 2-3 with an interim head coach and a new offensive playcaller.

Robert Saleh was fired last Tuesday after the Jets’ slow start to the season. Defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich replaces him on an interim basis. Ulbrich will look to earn the first win of his coaching career against a Bills team that may be extra motivated by a Week 5 loss to the Houston Texans. Despite the sub-.500 start, the Jets still have a chance to take first place in the division with a win in this game and will look to jump-start their offense with a new playcaller, Todd Downing.

The line for Monday’s game is now at Bills -1 on ESPN BET, after opening last week at Bills -3. The line didn’t move much during the week, but as kickoff approaches, New York has moved into an even position on the moneyline.

Odds current as of publication time, courtesy of ESPN BET

Game lines

Spread: Accounts (-1)
Money line: Bills (-120). Jets (even)
Top/Bottom: 40.5

Distribution over the first half: Bills -0.5 (even)/jets +0.5 (-120)
Total points from accounts: O/U 20.5 points (-110/-120)
Jet’s total pointts: O/U 19.5 points (-125/-105)

The props

Pass

Aaron Rodgers total passing yards: O/U 224.5 yards (Even/-130)

Josh Allen’s total passing yards: O/U 199.5 yards (-130/even)

All total passing TDs: O/U 1.5 TDs (+160/-210)

Rush

James Cook total rushing yards: O/U 59.5 (+120/-155)

Breece Hall total rushing yards: O/U 49.5 (-145/+115)

Josh Allen total rushing yards: O/U 29.5 (-135/+105)

Braelon Allen total rushing yards: O/U 34.5 (+105/-135)

Received

Garrett Wilson total receiving yards: Order no. 59.5 (-125/-105)

Allen Lazard total receiving yards: O/U 34.5 (-125/-105)

Tyler Conklin total receiving yards: O/U 29.5 (-110/-120)

Dalton Kincaid total receiving yards: Order no. 39.5 (-120/-110)

Breece Hall total receiving yards: O/U 24.5 (-125/-105)

Keon Coleman total receiving yards: O/U 34.5 (-125/-105)

Mike Williams total receiving yards: O/U 29.5 (+105/-135)

James Cook total receiving yards: O/U 14.5 (-120/-110)

Ben Solak’s choice

Breece Hall over 3.5 receptions (-125).

We don’t know exactly what the offense will look like in New York with Ulbrich and Downing. But we do know that the Bills are giving up receptions to running backs by playing their deep zones and forcing checkdowns, and we know that Aaron Rodgers needs to get the ball out of the way behind this offensive line quickly. If this becomes a back to basics game for the Jets, I think you’ll see them move Hall’s direction.

Betting Trends

Courtesy of ESPN Research

Bills vs. Jets

• Khalil Shakir has exceeded his receiving yards mark in three straight games, tying for the longest active streak by a wide receiver.

• Tyler Conklin hasn’t scored a touchdown since 2022, a stretch of 17 consecutive starts. He is +375 to find the end zone in Week 6.

• Josh Allen is +145 to throw for multiple passing touchdowns on Monday night, but the Jets have allowed just two passing touchdowns all season.

• Teams that leave a game in Europe without taking a bye week are 8-7 ATS.

• Four straight Jets games have been under the total. All three Bills road games this season have been under the total. Unders are 15-4 in Bills road games since 2022. Five straight Bills-Jets meetings have gone under the total.

• Aaron Rodgers is 7-1 ATS and 6-1-1 straight up in his career as a home underdog (6-1 ATS if you exclude last year’s Bills-Jets game when he was injured in the first series).

• The Jets have won each of the last two home meetings, both as underdogs. They were 2.5-point underdogs last season and 10.5-point underdogs in 2022.

• The Jets are 2-8 ATS in their past 10 games as underdogs.

• The Bills are 3-7 ATS in primetime games over the past two seasons.