A broad area of ​​low pressure is expected to form over the southwestern Caribbean Sea near the Gulf of Mexico later this week, bringing heavy rain to parts of Central America, according to the National Hurricane Center in Miami.

Forecasters said Monday afternoon that some further development could be possible if the system remains above water as it moves west-northwest toward Central America. Regardless, NHC forecasters said rain is likely in parts of Central America later this week.

As of 1 p.m., the disturbance had a slim 20% chance of becoming a tropical depression or storm within a week.

Disturbance west of Africa

An area of ​​low pressure between Cape Verde and the Lesser Antilles could begin developing later this week as it moves west toward warmer waters, NHC forecasters said Monday afternoon. Development was hampered by dry air on Monday, but forecasters said a tropical depression could form late this week as the system approaches the Leeward Islands.

As of 1 p.m., the system had a 60% chance of forming in the following week.

Jay Grymes, state climatologist at the LSU AgCenter, said Monday morning that the latest hurricane spaghetti models indicate the disturbance is unlikely to reach the Gulf of Mexico. Yet it is still too early to know with certainty where the direct consequences of the system will be felt.

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