The New York Jets shocked the NFL world this week when they announced that head coach Robert Saleh had been fired. The 2-3 Jets are now looking for a spark that some teams have seen in leadership changes, but they may not find it if their quarterback continues to have so much influence on the offense.

In New York, Aaron Rodgers finally has the power he’s wanted his entire career. The quarterback had little control over the Packers’ personnel and his rift with the franchise began when Green Bay selected quarterback Jordan Love in the 2020 NFL Draft. Rodgers denied he had a “wish list” in New York, but the Jets have since his arrival signed several of his old Packers teammates, including Randall Cobb, Allen Lazard and Tim Boyle.

The end of Mike McCarthy’s tenure as Packers head coach was marred by his power struggle with Rodgers, who had a lot of say in the game plan and complete control of the line of scrimmage. So much so that at times McCarthy didn’t even know what Rodgers was looking at.

When McCarthy was fired during the 2018 season, the Packers transitioned to a static, run-heavy offense, relying on Rodgers’ ability to play outside of structure. It was a below-average offense that ranked 18th in points per drive — nowhere near where it should have been with a future Hall of Fame quarterback. The offense was too centered around Rodgers, and the current Jets offense seems to be following the same path as that 2018 Packers, except Rodgers isn’t nearly as athletic as he once was.

After that season, the Packers hired Matt LaFleur as the new head coach and play-caller. Although it took some negotiating, Rodgers relinquished control and executed LaFleur’s offense — an offense that relied heavily on pre-snap motion and took away much of the control Rodgers was used to at the line of scrimmage. There isn’t much time on the play clock to adjust safeties and hear plays when there are moves, double moves and even triple moves. After a season of learning the offense, Rodgers had two of the best years of his career, highlighted by back-to-back MVP awards in 2020 and 2021.

Despite statistical success, Rodgers still yearned for more control. After 2021, Rodgers complained on the Pardon My Take podcast about the heavy use of exercise.

“Just because (Peyton Manning) wanted to look at it and use his cadence variation to get movement and then also be able to go with the tempo,” Rodgers said of Manning playing without any prior movement. “When you have so much movement, it is difficult to keep the pace going. It’s because you always have to make sure that you’re ready and that you have a move… maybe a double move, maybe this thing, maybe this adjustment of it. … I’m not telling you anything I wouldn’t tell you (LaFleur). I went after him today because there’s fucking movement on every damn piece. I’m like, can we do one piece without movement and passing so we can get some tempo? Because I like to change the pace.”

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Manning and Tom Brady each moved on late in their careers from the teams they built their legacies with and won Super Bowls before retiring. Both were given a lot of power to shape their transgressions. Both had static offenses with full control at the line of scrimmage. The ceiling for that type of offense is high, but it depends on the quarterback’s ability to play chess with the opposing defensive coordinator.

This is what Rodgers wanted in New York and this is what he got. It’s just that this Jets offense doesn’t have anywhere near the same level of talent as both Brady and Manning had during their stops. The Jets feature Breece Hall, who hasn’t been as productive as he was in the second half of last season, and Garrett Wilson, who Rodgers has struggled to build chemistry with thus far. Also, the offensive line has struggled with consistent blocking in the run game and pass protection.

As for the on-field chess advantage Rodgers is supposed to provide, he was simply completely outclassed by coordinator Brian Flores’ Vikings defense on Sunday. Flores has confused every quarterback he has faced this season, but Rodgers has failed to properly respond to the Vikings’ most basic and common pressure schemes. Against the Jets, Flores spammed the same seven-play Cover 0 blitz he has used for most of his career. During those blitzes, Rodgers went 3-for-6 for 26 yards with one interception and a sack — not the results you’d expect from a veteran quarterback.

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Before trading for Rodgers, the Jets hired Nathaniel Hackett, who was coming off a disastrous stint as head coach of the Denver Broncos that lasted less than a year. Presumably they hired Hackett, just like the Broncos did, to lure Rodgers. Rodgers was effusive in his praise for Hackett, but it wasn’t just about their relationship. Hackett ran the offense that Russell Wilson wanted to the detriment of the Broncos. Of course, he would let Rodgers do whatever he wanted in New York.

“Once we get to know him and understand him, we’ll build it around him,” Hackett said after the Broncos traded for Wilson in 2022. “So what’s it going to be? It becomes what Russell is likes to do.”

Even at Wilson’s peak, he never played with timing and consistency from the back of his hand. He always relied on his ability to get outside the pocket and throw outside the numbers. Suddenly the Broncos seemed like he wanted to play as a pocket passer. Wilson’s offense with the Seahawks was often among the highest in designed rollout percentage. For example, in 2021, Wilson’s final season in Seattle, the Seahawks ranked third in number of designed rollouts, according to Sports Info Solutions.

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In his season at Hackett, the Broncos ranked 15th in the same metric. Hackett gave in to what Wilson wanted to do instead of what was best for the team. Something similar is happening in New York.

Hackett’s offenses are consistently among the lowest in the league in terms of movement and play-action usage, so that naturally fits in with what Rodgers prefers. The Jets rank 28th in motion usage and 22nd in play-action usage this season. Movement and play-action have proven to be useful tools in an offense, but again they take away the agency of quarterbacks.

Movement helps move linebackers and forces the defense to quickly adapt and communicate before the offense. Some quarterbacks don’t like it because they want the defense to stay the same so they can read it more easily without the picture changing. The problem is that Rodgers hasn’t provided the mental edge that was advertised, and this offense isn’t very talented. They need tools like exercise to succeed. While the sample size is not large, the Jets offense is much more efficient with movement than without movement.

Below is a graph showing where the Jets rank in terms of success rate with and without motion on play action, zone runs, and gap scheme runs.

The Jets announced Thursday that passing game coordinator Todd Downing will take over play-calling duties, but I don’t imagine much will change. Downing is very similar to Hackett in that neither has a history of success as an offensive coordinator – Downing took over an offense that finished second in points per drive the year before and finished 21st in the same metric in his two seasons as the Titans offensive coordinator in 2021-2022. Both coordinators have historically called static offenses. Unless Downing has made major philosophical changes in his time away from play-calling, the Jets’ offensive structure should look the same.

The offense built into Rodgers’ image just isn’t working. They rank 23rd in points per drive and 23rd in DVOA. There’s a chance they could trade for receiver Davante Adams, who is clearly on Rodgers’ wish list. Adams could be a big help in this offense due to its static nature. They need players who can dominate one-on-one matches and Adams could still do that at an elite level.

Still, Adams wouldn’t solve all of the Jets’ problems. This offense should be more like what LaFleur did with Rodgers in Green Bay. Of course, Downing isn’t the game designer that LaFleur is, but he can copy some of those ideas. No one should expect this offense to be a top-10 unit, but with the defense playing at an elite level, this team only needs to be average to compete. There are still flashes of the old Rodgers. He can still make extraordinary throws. The tools to at least create a more efficient offense are there, but Rodgers must be willing to let go of his ideas about what he wants this offense to look like.

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