After two weeks of talk, the deal most people saw coming finally came together when the Las Vegas Raiders traded wide receiver Davante Adams to the New York Jets, reuniting Adams with his old quarterback Aaron Rodgers.

It was widely reported that the Raiders were looking to add a second-round pick in the upcoming NFL Draft and more for the star. But the organization and owner Mark Davis were unwilling to take on a portion of Adams’ salary to make that happen. So Las Vegas only got a third-round selection from New York in return.

Granted, the pick is conditional and could end up in the second round, but those circumstances are steep. Either the Jets need to at least make it to the AFC Championship Game with Adams on the active roster, or he needs to become a first- or second-team AP All-Pro this season.

Both scenarios are very unlikely.

The Jets’ playoff chances

Of course, the quarterback situation is dramatically better and the Jets have a better chance of turning their season around than the Raiders. But what’s ironic about this trade is that Adams, who is on the hunt for rings at the end of his career, goes from a dysfunctional 2-4 team to a dysfunctional 2-4 team.

New York is currently two games behind Buffalo in the AFC East standings, and the Bills have the early tiebreaker after beating the Jets on Monday night. Those teams have one more game to play against each other, but New York can’t gain the head-to-head advantage after dropping the first game. That makes it unlikely that the team will win the division.

Sure, there’s still a wild card spot on the table for the Jets, as the Steelers, Chargers and Colts currently occupy the five through seven seeds, while the Broncos, Dolphins and Bengals are the other teams in the AFC Playoff photo is considered “in the hunt”. .

Photo by Al Bello/Getty Images

However, in NFL history, only two teams have made the playoffs with an interim head coach: the 2021 Raiders (shoutout to Rich Bisaccia) and the 1961 Houston Oilers. Also, according to PlayoffStatus.com, the Jets only have a chance of 27 percent to make the playoffs and a three percent chance to make the conference championship.

Granted, adding Adams could improve those chances, but New York’s coaching problems extend beyond the head coach. One of Jeff Ulbrich’s first moves as interim head coach was to take away Nathaniel Hackett’s playing skills and give the responsibility to Todd Downing.

The move is justified as Hackett ranked 29th in points scored last season and was 25th in points per game (18.6) before relegation, but Downing is not much better.

With the Raiders in 2017, Downing took the seventh-ranked offense the year before and turned it into the 23rd-ranked unit. In his final season as the Titans’ offensive coordinator two years ago, Tennessee finished 28th in scoring.

So Adams will help improve New York’s offense, but to the point where the team ultimately wins the AFC East and two playoff games — both of which will likely be on the road — feels highly unlikely. The Jets are more than a receiver away from knocking out the Chiefs, Texans, Ravens and Bills from MetLife Stadium.

All-Pro odds

What’s more understandable is that the three-time All-Pro deserves the individual accolades involved in the trade terms. However, he is well behind the eight ball after missing the last three games of the season.

While stats are only part of the equation, Adams currently ranks 57th among wide receivers with 209 yards and has just one touchdown. That puts him 240 yards and three touchdowns away from currently ranking in the top six among wide receivers, and he’ll need to make up 195 yards to even rank in the top 10.

To put it in perspective, if Adams and Rodgers replicate their 2020 production, where the wideout had the highest yards per game of his career (98.1) over the next eleven games, he will finish with 1,288 yards. Last season, Mike Evans had the fewest receiving yards among AP All-Pro wideouts with 1,255 and every other receiver had more than 1,300 yards.

So Adams would have to go into New York and match his best yards per game to get into the conversation based on last year’s numbers.

Also, a big reason why Evans received the honor last season was because he had the most receiving touchdowns in the NFL with 13. Considering Adams is currently four touchdowns behind Evans, Chris Godwin, Ja’Marr Chase and his new teammate Allen Lazard for the league lead, that doesn’t seem feasible.

Long story short, don’t get your hopes up that the Raiders end up getting the Jets’ second-round pick in this trade.