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    • Hurricane tracker Invest 94L 2024, Nadine spaghetti models for Florida
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    Hurricane tracker Invest 94L 2024, Nadine spaghetti models for Florida

    Vaseline Posted on

    When is the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season? June 1 to November 30, with the busiest months between August and October.

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    Invest 94L is increasingly likely to become the next named storm of the season.

    While everyone should keep a close eye on the system – and always be prepared – there’s no need to panic. Even if it becomes a strong tropical storm or hurricane, Florida seems to (finally) be able to avoid its direct consequences. That’s welcome news for a state that has been hit by two hurricanes in less than two weeks.

    ➤ Follow Invest 94L

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    Florida has been hit by three hurricanes so far this season: Hurricane Debby, Hurricane Helene and Hurricane Milton. That puts 2024 on par with five other years for the most hurricanes to make landfall in Florida in a single season, according to Dr. Philip Klotzbach, meteorologist at Colorado State University who specializes in seasonal hurricane forecasts in the Atlantic Basin.

    The next named storm of the season will be Nadine.

    Here’s what you need to know about Invest 94L.

    Will Invest 94L become Tropical Storm Nadine?

    Special note about the NHC cone: The forecast track shows the most likely path from the center of the storm. It does not illustrate the full width of the storm or its effects, and the center of the storm is likely to move outside the cone up to 33% of the time.

    An area of ​​low pressure called Invest 94L located over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean is producing unorganized showers and thunderstorms, according to the National Hurricane Center.

    ➤ Invest in 94 liter spaghetti models

    This system is forecast to move generally westward, and environmental conditions could become more favorable for gradual development by mid to late this week.

    A tropical depression could form as the system begins moving west-northwestward and approaches or nears the Leeward Islands late this week.

    • Probability of formation during 48 hours: low, 30 percent.
    • Formation chance during 7 days: average, 60 percent.

    AccuWeather meteorologists are beginning to call Invest 94L a “tropical rainstorm” to increase public awareness of the system.

    Invest in 94 liter spaghetti models

    Special note about spaghetti models: Illustrations cover a range of forecasting tools and models, and they are not all the same. The hurricane center uses only the four or five best-performing models to help make its forecasts.

    Will Invest 94L become Tropical Storm Nadine or Hurricane Nadine?

    Right now, Invest 94L is “struggling to get organized,” AccuWeather chief hurricane expert Alex DaSilva said in a phone interview on Tuesday, Oct. 15. “There is circulation, but what is missing are persistent thunderstorms around the center of the circulation. A hostile environment at the moment, dealing with wind shear and dry air.

    “It appears any development will be slow over the next few days. Late in the week, likely Thursday or Friday, the window opens for developing into a tropical storm as wind shear decreases. AccuWeather’s forecast is that this will will be.” become a tropical storm Thursday evening, Friday morning or Thursday afternoon at the earliest.

    Where could potential Tropical Storm Nadine go?

    DaSilva offered three different scenarios on where Invest 94L could go:

    • A trail north of the Virgin Islands
    • A path across Hispaniola
    • A path south of Hispaniola

    What could the three possible paths mean for Florida and Palm Beach County?

    • Northern track: If Invest 94L moves north of the Virgin Islands, it could potentially move close to Puerto Rico between Thursday afternoon (October 17) and Saturday morning (October 19).
      • “That’s a pretty favorable environment for strengthening and it could become a strong tropical storm or hurricane Friday or Saturday. That possibility is on the table,” DaSilva said.
      • “By the time it approaches the Bahamas or the Turks and Caicos Islands, wind shear will increase significantly and it will most likely be torn apart. The likelihood of a direct impact on Florida is very low.”
      • Indirect impacts include rough surf and currents on Sunday and Monday, DaSilva said.
    • About Hispaniola: According to DaSilva, this is the most likely number at the moment. From Saturday afternoon through Sunday, the storm could move toward Hispaniola, where high mountains are expected to tear the storm apart.
      • But those same mountains “could squeeze out a lot of precipitation. We could see very, very heavy rains in Haiti and the Dominican Republic.”
    • Southern track: If Invest 94L moves south of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico and avoids mountains, it could become stronger in the Caribbean. At this time, this scenario is not likely,” DaSilva said.
      • But if this is the path, it will likely move west toward Mexico, with no immediate impact on Florida and the US

    Wind shear will help protect Florida and Palm Beach County this time

    “Wind shear should protect Florida from Invest 94L,” DaSilva said. ‘That’s good news. We definitely don’t need a new one.’

    What is an investment?

    The National Hurricane Center, short for research, uses the term invest to refer to areas of low pressure that it is monitoring for possible development into a tropical depression or storm.

    Investments are not tropical depressions or tropical storms. They are usually clusters of showers and thunderstorms, and the fact that they have been designated as an investment project does not guarantee that they will develop into a tropical cyclone.

    Investments range from 90 to 99, followed by a letter: L for the Atlantic basin and E for those in the eastern Pacific. After 99 it starts again and the next investment would be 90.

    Once something is designated as an investment, specialized data sets and computer modeling can begin, including planning Hurricane Hunter aircraft missions and running spaghetti models.

    National Hurricane Center Map: What Are Forecasters Looking At Now?

    Systems currently monitored by the National Hurricane Center.

    ➤ Tropical Watch, October 15: See the latest news from the National Hurricane Center being tracked

    Interactive map: hurricanes, tropical storms that have passed near your city

    Stay informed. Receive weather alerts via SMS

    What’s next?

    We will continue to update our tropical weather coverage daily. Download the app from your local site to ensure you’re always up to date with the news. And look here for our special subscription offers.

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