MLB Best Bets Today October 11:

We only have one game on the MLB schedule for Friday night, but this one is as big as they come this time of year. Game 5 between the Padres and Dodgers will decide who faces the Mets in the NLCS and who faces a long offseason wondering what could have happened.

We’ll win or go home again on Saturday night between the Tigers and Guardians, but tonight it’s all about the National League and a very heated rivalry.

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San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers (-142, 8)

8:08 PM ET

The Mets begin the NLCS in California. We just don’t know yet if they will do this at Dodger Stadium or Petco Park. Yoshinobu Yamamoto gets a chance to make up for his poor Game 1 effort and Yu Darvish has a chance to pitch the Pads to his second win of the series.

Yamamoto’s first playoff start did not go well, as he allowed five runs on five hits in three innings of work. He only struck out one batter, which we didn’t see from him during the regular season with 105 strikes in 90 innings of work. He gave up four hit balls over 100 mph, including a Manny Machado home run and one of the hardest-hit balls of the season on a 120 mph double to Fernando Tatis Jr.. He also suffered bad luck with two very soft hits against.

He just wasn’t sharp, which is concerning because he had a start on September 28th and then went into Game 1 on October 5th, so it wasn’t like he had a big layoff or anything. He only made four starts after missing almost three months, so I think it’s fair he wasn’t in great form. Will he be able to make the adjustments here?

Righties had 23 extra base hits against him in 189 plate appearances on the season, as he held lefties to a .267 SLG and a .237 wOBA, but righties had a .453 SLG to go with a .317 wOBA. All high-velocity balls in G1 were from right-handers.

Darvish, who owns a 3.88 ERA and 5.55 FIP in 65 career playoff innings, allowed one run on three hits in his seven innings of Game 2. He struck out just three batters out of 25 he faced. The game finished 10-2, but the Padres scored six of the points after Darvish left, so it wasn’t like he was just blowing out with a big lead. However, he took a 3-0 lead after two innings, so that certainly helped him settle down.

Darvish was credited with using seven different pitches and his velo was good on all pitches except the curveball, so that was encouraging after what was largely a lost season for him due to personal matters. But he only had eight scents in 40 swings. He just managed to keep the Dodgers off balance with an average exit velocity of 85 miles per hour and only six hard-hit balls.

The margin for error without generating swings and misses is small and that would be a concern if I were to make a second start against LA. The Dodgers had 28 games with five or fewer strikeouts during the regular season (five in Game 2). They were 20-8 in those games. Interestingly enough, one of those was a Darvish start in April. Three of the games were against San Diego and the score was 1-2.

All in all, I don’t have a bet I like in this one. I think a shot with a right-handed hitter could make sense for the Padres with a player support, but I do think Yamamoto will be better. It may be well set up for live betting, as most MLB playoff games seem to be with all the management and pitching changes.

I’m leaning toward the plus-money with the Padres because I don’t think these teams are very far apart and this will likely be a bullpen game relatively early, but not an official pick.