close
close

first Drop

Com TW NOw News 2024

Donald Trump Overtakes Kamala Harris in 4-Point Swing: Fox News Poll
news

Donald Trump Overtakes Kamala Harris in 4-Point Swing: Fox News Poll

A recent Fox News poll shows Donald Trump leading Kamala Harris in a four-point swing, shaking up the dynamics of the presidential race.

The poll, conducted between October 11 and 14 among 1,110 registered voters and 870 likely voters, shows Trump leading Harris by 2 points among registered and likely voters, from 50 percent to her 48 percent, a difference of 4 points since Harris has been 2 points ahead of Trump a month ago.

Although Trump has seen a jump in the polls, his lead is still within the margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. Meanwhile, according to Fox News, Harris leads voters from the seven major battleground states by six points.

The numbers are among the best for Trump in a Fox News poll since he became the Republican nominee. The Fox News survey in August found the former president leading by just one point.

trump
Donald Trump dances during a campaign rally at the Findlay Toyota Center on October 13, 2024 in Prescott Valley, Arizona. A Fox News poll shows the former president in the lead.

Rebecca Noble/Getty Images

The shift in favor of Trump is largely due to a rise in support among white voters, who now support him by 10 points, compared to 4 points last month and 6 points in August. He also sees record support among voters 65 and older (49 percent) and those with a college degree (48 percent). Meanwhile, Harris is experiencing her lowest levels of support since she was nominated among black voters (67 percent), college graduates (49 percent), voters 65 and older (47 percent) and white voters with a college degree (46 percent). .

“Overall, the move toward Trump is subtle but potentially consequential, especially if he makes gains among college-educated voters,” said Democratic pollster Chris Anderson, who conducts Fox News surveys with Republican Daron Shaw. “However, the race has been well within the margin of error for three months and the outcome will likely depend on which side is more effective at enticing rather than persuading.”

The poll shows that two-thirds of Harris and Trump supporters say they are “extremely” motivated to vote. But a larger share of Trump’s supporters say they would vote for him rather than against Harris, compared to the vice president’s supporters. Among Harris’ supporters, two-thirds describe their vote as for her, but a third say it is against Trump. Among Trump supporters, 80 percent say they would vote for him rather than against Harris (18 percent).

Newsweek contacted the Harris and Trump campaigns via email for comment.

Trump is generally seeing a shift in the polls in his favor. The RealClearPolitics poll showed last week that Michigan favored Trump for the first time since July 29. Nevada and Pennsylvania have also become Republican. Meanwhile, pollster Nate Silver’s forecast last week showed 19 states flipped in the former president’s favor.

The polls are still very close, especially in swing states, where the candidates are within 1 or 2 points of each other. On Wednesday, Silver’s prediction showed for the first time that Donald Trump and Harris now have essentially an equal chance of winning in November, with Harris at 50.1 percent, compared to Trump’s 49.7 percent.

It comes as Harris’ chances of winning the election have fallen by about 6 percentage points since late September, with Trump making gains in 19 states, according to Silver’s prediction.

“The forecast is very close. After another day of polls showing a near tie in battleground states across the Midwest, it’s now literally 50/50,” Silver wrote on his website.