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    • Here’s how La Niña could impact the US this winter
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    Here’s how La Niña could impact the US this winter

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    Topline

    There is a good chance that La Niña will hit the U.S. this winter, a weather pattern characterized by warmer, drier conditions in most southern states with higher precipitation and cooler conditions in other regions, the National Weather Service said.

    Key facts

    There is a 60% chance that La Niña will develop in the U.S. through November and last through March, according to the latest National Weather Service forecasts.

    La Niña is a climate pattern characterized by cooler than average sea surface temperatures in parts of the Pacific Ocean and is the opposite of El Niño, which brings warmer than average temperatures.

    Lower sea surface temperatures push the jet stream—a current of air that flows from west to east—to the north, reducing the chance of precipitation in the southern U.S. and increasing the likelihood of severe flooding in the Pacific Northwest and Canada increases. This was reported by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

    During a La Niña winter, temperatures are warmer than average in the southern U.S. states and cooler than normal in the north, according to NOAA.

    Emily Becker, an atmospheric scientist at the University of Miami, wrote in a blog for NOAA that if La Niña appears this winter, it is expected to be a weaker event that allows more snow in the Northeast and Central Plains.

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    Which regions could experience hot, dry conditions this winter?

    NOAA expects drier conditions in the Southeast, Southwest and some states in the Great Plains and Mountain West, including Utah, Nevada, Colorado, Wyoming, New Mexico and Oklahoma, between November and January. Above-average temperatures are also possible in the Southwest, Southeast and Mountain West, as well as the Midwest, Southern California and states along the East Coast.

    Which regions could experience cool, wet weather?

    According to NOAA, the Pacific Northwest, Midwest and Northeast are expected to experience above-average precipitation. States more likely to experience increased precipitation between November and January include Washington, Oregon, Idaho, Montana, Wisconsin, Michigan, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, Pennsylvania and New York.

    Tangent

    La Niña can also result in stronger hurricane seasons in the Atlantic Ocean by expanding the area of ​​low vertical wind shear, increasing the number of hurricanes that develop and potentially creating stronger storms.

    Surprising fact

    This past winter, hit by El Niño, was the warmest on record in the U.S., with temperatures in the lower 48 states 5.4 degrees warmer than average, according to NOAA. Several states recorded their warmest winters on record, NOAA said, including North Dakota, Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, New York, Vermont and New Hampshire.

    Important background

    The La Niña and El Niño weather patterns are created by interactions between ocean surfaces and the atmosphere in the Pacific Ocean, and both occur about every three to five years, according to NOAA. Both weather patterns are part of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a climate phenomenon resulting from a shift in winds and sea surface temperatures over the Pacific Ocean, although NOAA and the National Weather Service note that their occurrence is not predictable is. The agency previously warned that climate change could increase the frequency of extreme El Niño and La Niña events, with increasing rainfall and increasingly warmer temperatures. The two patterns don’t always follow each other, but it does happen. A La Niña that follows an El Niño winter typically results in warmer summers, and the National Weather Service warned earlier this year that La Niña would likely result in record-breaking temperatures. The average La Niña pattern lasts about 15.4 months, while El Niño typically lasts 9.5 months, although the longest La Niña on record spanned 37 months between 1973 and 1976.

    Read more

    ForbesLa Niña could bring record heat to the US this summer – what you need to knowBy means of Cailey Gleeson

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