Topline

There is a good chance that La Niña will hit the U.S. this winter, a weather pattern characterized by warmer, drier conditions in most southern states with higher precipitation and cooler conditions in other regions, the National Weather Service said.

Key facts

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Which regions could experience hot, dry conditions this winter?

NOAA expects drier conditions in the Southeast, Southwest and some states in the Great Plains and Mountain West, including Utah, Nevada, Colorado, Wyoming, New Mexico and Oklahoma, between November and January. Above-average temperatures are also possible in the Southwest, Southeast and Mountain West, as well as the Midwest, Southern California and states along the East Coast.

Which regions could experience cool, wet weather?

According to NOAA, the Pacific Northwest, Midwest and Northeast are expected to experience above-average precipitation. States more likely to experience increased precipitation between November and January include Washington, Oregon, Idaho, Montana, Wisconsin, Michigan, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, Pennsylvania and New York.

Tangent

La Niña can also result in stronger hurricane seasons in the Atlantic Ocean by expanding the area of ​​low vertical wind shear, increasing the number of hurricanes that develop and potentially creating stronger storms.

Surprising fact

This past winter, hit by El Niño, was the warmest on record in the U.S., with temperatures in the lower 48 states 5.4 degrees warmer than average, according to NOAA. Several states recorded their warmest winters on record, NOAA said, including North Dakota, Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, New York, Vermont and New Hampshire.

Important background

The La Niña and El Niño weather patterns are created by interactions between ocean surfaces and the atmosphere in the Pacific Ocean, and both occur about every three to five years, according to NOAA. Both weather patterns are part of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a climate phenomenon resulting from a shift in winds and sea surface temperatures over the Pacific Ocean, although NOAA and the National Weather Service note that their occurrence is not predictable is. The agency previously warned that climate change could increase the frequency of extreme El Niño and La Niña events, with increasing rainfall and increasingly warmer temperatures. The two patterns don’t always follow each other, but it does happen. A La Niña that follows an El Niño winter typically results in warmer summers, and the National Weather Service warned earlier this year that La Niña would likely result in record-breaking temperatures. The average La Niña pattern lasts about 15.4 months, while El Niño typically lasts 9.5 months, although the longest La Niña on record spanned 37 months between 1973 and 1976.

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