Winter is slowly approaching.

As Accuweather notes, meteorological winter begins on December 1, less than two months away. And according to the latest winter weather forecast, the upcoming season will be relatively mild in central Pa., which doesn’t necessarily mean we won’t get snow.

“As people prepare their skis and snow blowers with snow on their minds, AccuWeather forecasters predict the season will be mild for most of the United States, similar to last winter, which was the warmest on record,” the forecast reads . “That’s only part of the story, however, as waves of frigid air will periodically send frigid air across the country, along with increased chances of snow.”

AccuWeather notes three key factors in the 2024-2025 winter weather forecast, including La Nina, the polar vortex and water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico and North Pacific Ocean.

The La Nina phenomenon occurs when water temperatures near the equator in the eastern Pacific Ocean are lower than normal for an extended period of time. If temperatures remain this way, it could affect the trajectory of things like snowstorms and weather patterns.

According to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist and Long Range Expert Paul Pastelok, the phenomenon won’t be as much of a problem this winter, but it could add some uncertainty to future forecasts.

“La Niña will be weak through most of the winter,” Pastelok said in the news release. “A weaker La Niña could allow other signals to determine the pattern, and more variation throughout the winter.”

On the other hand, water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico could pose a bigger threat. AccuWeather notes that “water temperatures in the Gulf are expected to be higher than historical averages, which could translate into mild air masses for the central and eastern U.S.”

The polar vortex is likely to hit most of the eastern US in February, bringing with it cold air currents. Pastelok does note that the explosions are not a definitive certainty.

The first signs of snow are also expected to appear in December, as AccuWeather predicts that the first month of winter will bring “brief bursts of cold air that will produce lake effect snow,” the forecast reads.

Lake effect snow is expected to hit the East Coast and other parts of the country in December. This phenomenon is the result of cold air masses moving over warm waters, and according to AccuWeather, some East Coast cities may experience more snow as a result of lake effect.

“New York City, Boston, Philadelphia and Pittsburgh are just a few of the cities expected to see more snowfall than last winter, partly due to increased snow chances in February,” the forecast reads. “Places like Chicago and Buffalo may not only have more snow than last winter, but they also have a chance of seeing snowfall totals for the season pile up more than the historical average this winter.”

Southcentral Pa., including places like Harrisburg and York, may not see as much snow as its counterparts. Pastelok said via phone call that it could be more challenging for the region to see snow in December.

“It seems more likely that we could see maybe one event in late November through December that could bring snow,” he said. “Erie gets snow more easily because of the lakes, and Pittsburgh because of the mountains. During the month of December you are more likely to see snow in places like Harrisburg.”

Pastelok also noted that there is a higher chance of snow in Harrisburg in January.

“As low pressure areas move across the Ohio Valley to the east, we could see some snow in Harrisburg,” he said. “Don’t give up, but it’s tough because we’re fighting against warm air. January will still be mild. In terms of timing, it will be a battle.”

While much of the country will experience a typical onset of winter weather, those in the Gulf Coast states and plains will experience a warm winter or a longer fall.

Palestok explained that certain areas will be slightly warmer than average this winter.

“From December through February, the warmest areas of the country, compared to average, will be in the South, the southern central states from the Plains, through the Mississippi Valley, into the Ohio and Tennessee valleys,” said he.

Learn more about the upcoming weather in Pa. can be found here.