The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration or NOAA released their official Winter Weather Outlook on Thursday. To no one’s surprise, NOAA prefers slightly above average temperatures in December, January and February in the Northeast! The past five winters in Providence have all had above-average temperatures.

The main factor behind this forecast has to do with the transition of the El Niño Southern Oscillation phase from El Niño to La Niña. Typically, with a La Niña phase, the jet stream is positioned to promote warmer-than-average temperatures in New England.

In terms of precipitation, the Northeast has an equal chance of above or below average precipitation. This is because La Niña is associated with more volatile storm tracks compared to El Niño. The region is less likely to get stuck in a pattern one way or another, unlike last winter when the Northeast was stuck in a very soggy and wet pattern.

What does all this mean when it comes to snow? Forecasters expect it to be a slow transition to La Niña, which will make for a weak La Niña or near ENSO neutral during the snow season. In recent years, this has produced near-average snowfall in southern New England, even in above-average temperatures. The chance of a new blind winter like the past two years is therefore quite low.

Be sure to stick with Storm Team 10 for the latest news as winter approaches!