This week’s NFL action kicks off with the Denver Broncos visiting the New Orleans Saints on “Thursday Night Football” (8:15 p.m. ET, Prime Video).

The Saints opened as 0.5-point favorites, but the line has since shifted toward the Broncos. New Orleans is dealing with the injury bug that will keep several key players out, including wide receivers Rashid Shaheed and Chris Olave, while several others are listed as questionable for Thursday’s game.

Denver is coming off a home loss to the Los Angeles Chargers, and the Saints have lost four in a row, including a blowout loss last week to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in which they gave up 51 points at home.

Thursday’s game has the lowest point total of the week (36.5).

Odds current as of publication time, courtesy of ESPN BET

Game lines

Spread: Broncos -3
Money line: Broncos (-150), Saints (+130)
Top/Bottom: 36.5

Distribution over the first half: Broncos -0.5 (-110), Saints +0.5 (-110)
Broncos total points: 19.5 (over -120/under -110)
Total number of saints: 17.5 (over +100/under -130)

The props

Pass

Bo Nix total passing yards: 199.5 (over +105/under -135)
No passing TDs: 1+ (-325), 2+ (+165), 3+ (+700), 4+ (+2500)
Spencer Rattler total passing yards: 174.5 (over -140/under +110)
Rattler passes TDs: 1+ (-225), 2+ (+225), 3+ (+1000), 4+ (+4000)

Rush

Alvin Kamara total rushing yards: 69.5 (over -110/under -120)
Javonte Williams total rushing yards: 44.5 (over -120/under -110)
Nix total rushing yards: 24.5 (over -135/under +105)
Rattler total rushing yards: 19.5 (over -130/under +100)

Received

Courtland Sutton total receiving yards: 44.5 (over -125/under -105)
Devaughn Many total receiving yards: 34.5 (over +105/under -135)
Kamara total receiving yards: 34.5 (over -125/under -105)
Troy Franklin total receiving yards: 19.5 (over -135/under +105)
J. Williams total receiving yards: 19.5 (over -110/under -120)

Andre Snellings’ choice

play

Where Tyler Fulghum leans in the Broncos-Saints game

Tyler Fulghum explains why he takes the Broncos with the points against the Saints.

Total Saints team UNDER 17.5 points (-130)

The Saints will likely be without starting quarterback Derek Carr (questionable, oblique) again, which would put Spencer Rattler in line to make his second straight start. Although Rattler had a decent NFL debut just four days ago, the Saints’ 27 points in that game were deceptive. Their scoring drive, all of which came in the second quarter, included a punt return touchdown, a 17-yard field goal after an interception and a 10-yard touchdown drive after another interception.

In his final eight drives of the game, Rattler led the Saints to five punts, two interceptions and zero points scored. The Broncos are an elite defense and rank in the top five in the NFL in fewest points allowed (fourth, 18.7 PPG allowed), yards allowed (fourth, 278.2 YPG) and passing yards allowed (fifth, 170 .8 yards). That defense, in a short week, against a Rattler-led offense that has been particularly hard hit at the skill positions – Chris Olave (out, concussion), Alvin Kamara (questionable, hand), Rashid Shaheed (out, knee), Taysom Hill ( questionable, ribs) – will likely lead to a low-scoring game for the Saints.

Joe Fortenbaugh’s choice

From First Bet, published on Monday

The number 37 is key when it comes to betting NFL totals, so let’s anticipate the upcoming move and lock in 37.5 now because I see this ending at 36.5 or lower. Since 2017, Thursday night totals of 40 or less are 20-7 under, which is a highly profitable hit rate of 74%. I know New Orleans just torched for 51 points and 594 yards against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday, but this Denver offense is a dink-and-dunk outfit that can’t stretch the field like the Buccaneers. For those interested in the derivatives market, it is worth noting that Denver has gone scoreless in the first half of three of six games.

Betting Trends

Courtesy of ESPN Research

• With the exception of the London game, the road favorites were a perfect 9–0 ATS in Week 6, the most covers of road favorites without an ATS loss in a single week in the Super Bowl era (excluding international games).

• The Broncos are 3-0 ATS on the road this season, all as underdogs.

• The Broncos are 0-6 ATS in their past six games on short rest (0-3 ATS under Sean Payton). The Saints are 1-6 ATS on short rest under Dennis Allen (0-4 ATS since the start of last season).

• Prime-time unders are 81-52-1 over the past three seasons,

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