“Joker: Folie à Deux” was poised to become another twisted comic book hit. Instead, the sequel to 2019’s billion-dollar hit “Joker” is a blockbuster.

So far, the offbeat musical about Batman’s infamous enemy has grossed $51.5 million domestically and $165 million worldwide after two weeks of release. By comparison, the first “Joker” had generated $96.2 million domestically and $248.4 million worldwide after three days of release. The sequel won’t make much of a big hit at the end of its theatrical run, with ticket sales expected to stall at a $65 million domestic gross and $210 million to $215 million worldwide when “Folie à Deux” leaves the big screen.

That’s a huge problem, because “Joker 2” cost $200 million to produce and about $100 million to market and distribute. At this rate, the film won’t come close to the $450 million it needs to break even in its theatrical run (ticket sales are split between studios and theater owners). Sources at Warner Bros. say the film will break even at $375 million. After critics and audiences roundly dismissed the big-budget tentpole, which earned a 33% “rotten” average on Rotten Tomatoes and a rare “D” score on CinemaScore, it’s shaping up to be one of the year’s biggest disasters . According to the estimates of insiders and three rival executives with knowledge of similar productions, the film is now poised to lose at least $150 to $200 million. One source speculates that the film will ultimately lose just over $200 million, while another source believes the damage will be closer to $125 million.

“Any estimate suggested by anonymous ‘insiders’ or ‘rival executives’ is completely wrong and continues a trend of reporting rumors as facts,” a Warner Bros. spokesperson said. in a statement. “The film will continue to play in theaters, including this week’s opening in China, and will continue to generate revenue during its home screening and associated circulation.”

Warner Bros. has the potential to recoup at least a little of its investment when “Folie à Deux” lands on home entertainment platforms on October 29. Still, the paltry returns represent a shocking collapse for “Joker,” which was an unlikely and undisputed box office champion with $335 million in North America and $1.078 billion worldwide. At the time, it was the highest-grossing R-rated film in history. Disney’s Marvel sequel “Deadpool & Wolverine” eclipsed that record in the U.S. ($635 million) and worldwide ($1.32 billion) over the summer, though “Joker” remains the biggest R-rated international release at $743 million. With a budget of around $65 million, ‘Joker’ was one of the most profitable comic book adaptations ever made – although Warner Bros. had to share the wealth with two co-financiers, which the studio added to limit the risk of the unconventional DC anti-hero story. Warners has one co-financier, Domain, on the sequel.

Given the monster success of “Joker,” which also scored two Oscars, it is not surprising that “Folie à Deux” was greenlit and given a bigger budget. But the exorbitant price makes it difficult for most films to become profitable in the current box office landscape. A big part of the reason for the sequel’s massive price tag was the fees for director Todd Phillips and Joaquin Phoenix (recurring as deranged stand-up Arthur Fleck), who both earned $20 million up front, as well as Lady Gaga (who joined the film added). as fellow Arkham inmate Harleen “Lee” Quinzel), who pocketed $12 million.

“If the filmmakers and the studio were committed to making a sequel – and why wouldn’t they after the first film grossed $1.08 billion – they faced the very difficult challenge of creating a new chapter storytelling that kept audiences engaged,” said analyst David A. Bruto of film consultancy Franchise Entertainment Research.

Box office analysts believe that Phillips alienated the DC fanbase by including song and dance numbers in the sequel, resulting in the huge difference in sales between the first and second “Joker” entries. While the original was a dark and creepy drama drawn from Martin Scorsese’s filmography of ‘Taxi Driver’ and ‘King of Comedy’, the next chapter plays like a fantasy musical – and includes covers of ‘That’s Life’, ‘Get Happy’ and ‘King of Comedy’. “For Once in My Life” – as Arthur Fleck awaits trial for murder.

“The first ‘Joker’ was a timely, fresh counterpoint to the dominant superhero narrative and tone, and it worked,” Gross adds. “The filmmakers deserve credit for making more unconventional creative choices in ‘Folie,’ adding the romantic angle with Lady Gaga. But this time nothing worked.”

“Joker” was released in the good times for comic book marquees, when the very idea of ​​superhero fatigue seemed laughable. But the genre has proven to be less resilient in the post-pandemic era. “Joker: Folie à Deux” joins the ignominious trio of 2023’s “Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom” and “The Marvels” – all three are billion-dollar sequels that completely collapsed at the box office and became big money losers. The sequel to 2018’s “Aquaman” grossed $439 million worldwide, while the 2019 sequel to “Captain Marvel” only grossed $206 million worldwide. These failures have proven that audiences will no longer show up simply because there’s a DC or Marvel logo in the title credits.

“Superheroes used to be able to guarantee a certain level of opening weekend grosses, but there is no minimum anymore,” said a rival studio executive on condition of anonymity. “Tolerance for films that are ‘just okay’ is no longer enough.”