ROANOKE, Va. – The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration on Thursday released its U.S. winter outlook for the 2024-2025 season. We analyze what it means for Southwest and Central Virginia.

A weak La Nina signal is expected next winter. What does that mean?

Well, a strong signal would increase confidence for the upcoming season’s forecasts, but a weak signal would mean more variability is possible.

NOAA’s seasonal temperature outlooks replicate that of a typical La Nina year. However, given the weak La Nina that will be in place this season, there is some wiggle room within this forecast.

This by no means means that every day of the coming winter will have above average temperatures, but that the average temperature of the entire season is expected to be above normal.

As for precipitation, NOAA does not directly forecast seasonal snowfall. Instead, they make a probabilistic forecast of the chances of above or below average precipitation for the season.

For Southwest and Central Virginia, we are between the probability of below average and above average precipitation. This does not mean that 24/25 winter will reflect a “normal” or average amount of snow.

Furthermore, given the likelihood of above-average temperatures, one might think that the coming winter will see below-average snowfall.

More on this topic will be discussed in the coming weeks, but for now that is possible download our weather app Unpleasant Stay informed about everything related to the weather