The Cleveland Guardians fell short in their quest to tie the ALCS at two games apiece.

After rallying from a 6–2 deficit to tie the score in Game 4, Cleveland shortstop Brayan Rocchio failed to cleanly field an Alex Verdugo ground ball in the top of the ninth, leading to a run by Jon Berti.

Gleyber Torres then singled to drive in Anthony Volpe and give the Yankees an 8-6 lead.

Tommy Kahnle came on in the bottom of the ninth and got out of danger with two runners on and one out to end the game.

With the Yankees now just one win away from the World Series, they will turn to Carlos Rodón on the mound to start Game 5, while the Guardians will counter with Tanner Bibee.

Cleveland’s decision to start Bibee is not without risk, however, as he will be pitching on short rest for the first time in his Major League career.

Yankees prospects

Rodón showed his worth in the series opener, limiting the Guardians to just one run on three hits in six innings.

It was an excellent rebound effort after allowing four runs in 3 ⅔ innings against the Royals in the divisional round.

The Yankees will no doubt be hoping for much more from the 10-year veteran now that he has earned his first postseason win.

Nevertheless, this is a matchup that Rodón has especially thrived in, going back to his days in the AL Central as a member of the White Sox.

In 21 games, the southpaw has a 2.81 ERA, while limiting the Guardians to a .214 batting average and a weighted on-base average (wOBA) of .275.

And if we just focus on this current Guardians roster, they are hitting .193 with a .256 wOBA in 92 plate appearances against Rodón.

He did a great job using his fastball to get ahead of Cleveland’s hitters before using his slider as a putaway throw.

Rodón’s slider will remain an important weapon for him against the Guardians, and according to FanGraphs, it is a pitch they have performed the worst against all season (-19.8 runs below average).

Guardians analysis

The Yankees welcomed Bibee rudely in Game 2, scoring three runs on five hits in 1 ⅓ innings of work.

While Bibee pitched well in the divisional series against the Tigers, taking on this Yankees lineup is a huge step forward in the league.

The Guardians are now 0-2 in Bibee’s two career starts when facing the Pinstripers.

In 30 at-bats, this current Yankees roster is hitting .407 against Bibee with a .467 wOBA and an 18.7-degree launch angle.

Like Rodón, Bibee also relies heavily on his slider, as it has the second-highest usage in his arsenal at 27.8%. The slider also gives Bibee his highest strikeout rate of 34.4%.

He saves an average of 13.8 runs when he’s on the field, but the problem is that the Yankees have the fourth-highest run production (+9.0 runs above average) in the league when facing the slider.

Although Bibee threw only 39 pitches in Game 2 and didn’t throw deeper than the second inning, he found himself in moments of high success from the start.

With Torres, Juan Soto and Aaron Judge atop the Yankees’ rankings, Bibee could be on the cusp of another tough matchup.

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Yankees vs. Guardians pick

No one will deny that Bibee’s had an exceptional year and has been the Guardian’s best pitcher by a wide margin.

In his first two seasons with Cleveland, he is 22-12 with a 3.25 ERA.

The reality is that the Guardians are running out of options at this point, so they’re putting Bibee back on short rest.

Unfortunately, he faces a Yankees lineup with simply too much quality.

Additionally, Rodón is a handful against Cleveland, and his teams are on a 5-0 run when he starts against the Guardians.

Since it’s not often you can get the Yankees as a short favorite at -120 or better, this opportunity is too good to pass up at today’s price.

Best bet: Yankees ML (-118, FanDuel)

Why trust New York Post betting

Michael Arinze handicaps most major sports for the New York Post. He has cashed two 15-leg teasers in his gambling career, as well as a 12-leg parlay featuring eight Little League World Series games. More recently, he carefully chose the finalists of the 2024 European Championships and the Copa America.