Here are five of my favorite Week 7 player bets available right now. For all my Week 7 betting odds, check out our Fantasy Life Bet Tracker. It’s free, just like us Betting Life Newsletter.

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Odds and projections are as of Thursday. 10/17 at 8:30 PM ET.

Kyren Williams Always TD

• Chances: -175 (Caesars)
• My projection: 0.97 TDs | -456.8 Probability to score

Williams is one of mine week 7 favorite fantasy RBs.

His arrangement is perfect: The Rams are preferred by a TDthey’re at home facing a Raiders defense ranked No. 28 in rush DVOA (5.4%, per FTN) and is missing its best interior lineman in DT Christian Wilkins (foot, IR).

And it’s not like Williams needs much situational momentum either: through five games, he has 431 yards and seven touchdowns from scrimmage on 95 carries and 15 targets. With WRs Puka Nacua (knee, IR) and Kuiper Kupp (Ankle) Uncertain for at least another week, Williams could again eclipse 20 touches as he has in each of his past three games, and that kind of usage would give him an excellent chance to find the end zone.

This year he scored a TD in every game. Last year he scored a total of 15 touchdowns in nine of 13 games.

At -175, Williams has a 63.6% implied probability of scoring a TD (according to our Fantasy life odds calculator), but I think his actual chances are closer to 80%.

Dirk Hendrik Always TD

• Chances: -196 (Caesars)
• My projection: 0.89 TDs | -309.6 Probability to score

The Buccaneers are theoretically strong on the defensive line with DTs Vita Vea And Calijah Chanceybut they are No. 25 in defensive rushing EPA (per RBs don’t matter), and with someone like Henry, I’m skeptical that the opponent’s defense even matters.

During the season, Henry has a league-high 11 carries inside the five-yard linewhich he has converted into five goal-line TDs, and he leads the NFL with 753 yards and nine TDs from scrimmage.

With a TD in all six games this year and a solid spread of -3.5, Henry should be able to score again.

Jordan Love Over 1.5 passing TDs

• Chances: -167 (FanDuel)
• My projection: 1.9 TDs

I bet it was a hit last week, so now I’ll be going back to it every week for the rest of the year. That’s how sports betting works.

Love is No. 2 with 282.8 yards passing per game, and I like the Packers -2.5 vs. Texans: On defense, the Texans may be missing four of their back seven defensemen at LBs Henry To’oTo’o (concussion) and Azeez Al-Shair (knee), SS Jimmie Ward (groin) and CB Kamari Lassiter (shoulder).

Against an injured defense, Love has the option to go out at home, where HC Matt LaFleur is 30-17 ATS (22.3% ROI, per Action network).

There’s a lot to like about Love’s situation, but even with that, he would appeal to me because of his history of success in this market. In every game this year he has hit the over off his wad with two plus TDs. Last year, he had more than 1.5 touchdowns in 11 of 14 games after the Week 6 bye.

The last time Love didn’t hit the far side of his passing TDs wad was Week 14.

This season, Love ranks No. 1 with an 8.2% TD percentage and three passing TDs per game.

I understand that -167 is a lot of juice, but last week it was -200, so it’s all relative, and I think the odds should be closer to -267 than the current market.

Chigoziem Okonkwo SGP: more than 1.5 receptions | Under 16.5 receiving yards

• Chances: +378 (FanDuel)
• My projection: 2.0 Receptions | 20.2 Received yards

The two parts of this same-play parlay are inversely correlated, and my projections suggest so too… but I think the +378 odds are too good to pass up.

At odds of -198 and -114, the two separate legs would combine for odds of +182.5 if they were completely uncorrelated. They’re not…but when does the point of value come?

Every sportsbook is different, but the odds for this SGP are as low as +212 and as high as +345 at other books.

• Caesars: +212
• BetMGM: +310
• Draft Kings: +345

FanDuel tends to provide the most generous odds of any domestic market book for inversely correlated SGPs, and given the other odds available I’m inclined to think +378 offers value.

Plus, there’s the fact that Okonkwo has had more than one reception and fewer than 17 yards in four of five games this year. His 80% hit rate on this SGP is destined to decline, but there may be something relatively sticky about his recent performance considering that (with a new playcaller in HC Brian Callahan) his efficiency and usage have dropped significantly since last season.

• 2023: 6.9 yards per goal | 9.8 meters per reception | 6.8 aDOT
• 2024: 4.4 yards per target | 5.2 meters per reception | 2.8 ADOT

Yes, yes, yes.

With his ridiculously low aDOT, Okonkwo is a perfect candidate for what at first glance appears to be an inversely correlated SGP, as the way he is targeted in his offense makes him very likely to convert a high percentage of his targets into catches and also most of his receptions in a smaller number of yards.

In other words, the sportsbooks will likely overvalue the inverse correlation of this parlay, creating value for bettors.

Jayden Daniels Under 21.5 completions

• Chances: -118 (Caesars)
• My projection: 19.5

Daniëls is one of mine favorite fantasy QBs of week 7.

I think he’s going to absolutely rock this week. It’s good: No. 1 in EPA + CPOE (0.210). And the Panthers are bad: No. 30 in defensive dropback EPA (0.254).

Moreover, they are injured. This week they certainly won’t have key players at all three levels in DT Derrick Brown (knee, IR), LB Sjaak Thompson (Achilles, IR) and FS Jordan Fuller (hamstring, IR), and they may also be without their top pass rusher in EDGE Jadeveon Clowney (shoulder) and best remaining midfield defender in LB Josey Jewel (hamstring), both of whom missed week 6.

But Daniels could still have a huge week without having to complete more than 21.5 passes.

He could be running a lot of his production, as he leads all starting QBs with a 15% scramble rate (according to our leading Fantasy Life Utilization Report).

And he could pile up yards in the air on a relatively low number of pass attempts, as he is No. 4 with 8.5 yards per attempt and the Panthers are No. 6 with 8.0.

Finally, the Commanders are -8 favorites at home. They may not have to throw the ball much to get a convincing win.