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    • Who will win the presidential election? Some polls, predicting probabilities
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    Who will win the presidential election? Some polls, predicting probabilities

    Vaseline Posted on

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    Arizona remains a key battleground on both candidates’ paths to the White House this election year.

    Arizona has 11 electoral college votes, making it the 14th most popular vote among states. Just a few weeks before the 2024 presidential election, Arizonans’ voting intentions still remain among the most politically polarized in the country, making those eleven votes crucial to securing a victory for Democrat Kamala Harris or Republican Donald Trump.

    As a result, more candidate visits are planned as the November 5 date approaches. Political ads and copy are likely to reach new levels as the campaign for Arizonans’ votes continues.

    Here’s what the polls, the odds and the historians say as we head into Election Day on Tuesday, November 5.

    Who is at the top of the polls in the US?

    Polls and odds are constantly changing, but here’s where each candidate stood as of October 17, 2024 at 3:00 PM:

    • ABC News Project 538 shows Harris leading in national polls with 48.5% and Trump with 46.1%. In the past, Harris has led Trump by as much as four percentage points, although more recent polls show them much closer.
    • 270towin shows that Harris has a 2.2% lead over Trump in national polls.
    • Realclearpolling shows that the betting odds are in favor of Harris, with a spread of +1.5 over Trump.

    Arizona: Is it a swing state in the 2024 presidential election? Here’s what you need to know

    Who’s Leading the Polls in Arizona?

    Former President Donald Trump had a slight lead over Vice President Kamala Harris in most Arizona polls released over the past week, but surveys show the race in the state is still a tie.

    • ABC News Project 538 shows Trump leading Harris in the Arizona polls by 1.6%.
    • 270towin shows that Trump has a 1.7% lead over Harris in the polls in Arizona.
    • Realclearpolling shows that the betting odds to win Arizona are in Trump’s favor, with a spread of +1.4 over Harris.

    Historian who has predicted nine out of 10 elections weighs in

    Allan Lichtman is a distinguished professor of history at American University in Washington, DC. He received his PhD from Harvard, specializing in modern American history and quantitative methods.

    He has correctly predicted the outcome of nine of the past ten presidential elections and has confirmed his prediction about which candidate will retake the White House.

    He predicts that Vice President Kamala Harris will win this year.

    How accurate have the election odds or polls been in the past presidential elections?

    According to the Conversation, a nonprofit news organization, the gambling favorite has lost just twice since 1866.

    The track record in polling is more challenging because different pollsters surveying different types of the population can often have higher margins of error.

    According to Pew Research, confidence in public opinion polls has suffered due to mistakes in the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections.

    In both general elections, many polls underestimated the strength of Republican candidates, including Donald Trump.

    Arizona Republic reporters Stephanie Murray and Zach Bradshaw and USA TODAY Network reporter Maria Francis contributed to this article.

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