• South Korea says 1,500 North Korean troops have been sent to help Russia in the war in Ukraine.
• The deployment of its troops to Russia would mark a major change in North Korea’s foreign relations.
• And the growing partnership poses a significant global risk, according to North Korean experts.

South Korea’s claims that North Korea is preparing troops to fight in Ukraine have put the world on high alert for a major escalation.

Experts on North Korea say the move would be a worrying upgrade in relations with Russia. They also said North Korean forces might find little more than cannon fodder.

On Friday, South Korea’s National Intelligence Service said Russian ships had transported about 1,500 troops from North Korea and were expected to deploy to Ukraine after frontline training.

A second transport is planned soon, the report said.

South Korean media have now done that reported that Pyongyang is preparing 12,000 troops.

The spy agency said its findings confirmed media reports in recent weeks that suggested the secretive state was preparing to commit troops to the war.

To support its claims, South Korea’s spy agency released satellite images showing one of the transport ships carrying troops, as well as other images of hundreds of North Korean troops at Russian training grounds.

On Monday, South Korea demanded the withdrawal of troops during a meeting with the Russian ambassador in Seoul, the Associated Press reported.

Images shared with CNN by the Ukrainian government also appear to show North Korean troops in Russia’s far east being fitted with uniforms and equipment.

According to the NOS, the troops have even been given Russian uniforms and false IDs.

Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has also said North Korea is preparing to join the fight.

North Korea has denied the reports.

A ‘dramatic’ step

If true, the troop movement represents “a dramatic step in North Korea’s foreign relations,” said Joseph S. Bermudez Jr., a North Korean defense expert at the Center for International and Strategic Studies .

There are numerous reports of North Koreans helping Russia, but only in limited numbers largely in a technical capacity – advisors, engineers and munitions experts tasked with observing how North Korea’s munitions are performing. Very few of them probably entered Ukrainian territory.

The ability to train and potentially deploy large numbers of North Korean ground troops would be a major step.

The deployment of North Korean troops in the battle could indicate that “Russia’s recruitment and training system is under enormous pressure,” Bermudez told Business Insider.

‘Cannon fodder’

Experts from North Korea told BI that deploying ground troops poses a logistical and cross-cultural challenge in terms of how they would operate.

“It is quite surprising that Russia would want such forces in combat, given the likely logistical and other challenges that integrating such forces into Russian combat operations is likely to entail,” Bermudez said.

He said the two states have historic ties, but most North Koreans do not speak Russian, and vice versa.

“Conducting combat operations with an allied force that does not speak your language poses real problems,” he said.

Bermudez also said there is “a significant level of racism” within the Russian military, despite the country’s high ethnic diversity – and said North Korean forces may start at the bottom of the pecking order.

Other experts said North Korean troops would face the harshest end of Russia’s notorious military hierarchy, which some label as expendable.

“The stark reality is that North Korean forces will likely simply be cannon fodder for Russia,” said Edward Howell, a North Korea expert at the University of Oxford.

Jim Hoare, a former diplomat for Britain in North Korea, agreed. “Actually, I think it’s going to be a nightmare,” he said.

Hoare also pointed to the risk of North Korean troops defecting, which would loom with any deployment.

In a report this month that BI was unable to verify, Ukrainian state broadcaster Suspilne quoted an anonymous intelligence official as saying that 18 North Korean soldiers had deserted so far.

A dangerous partnership

The deployment of troops in Ukraine would be a sign that the relationship between Russia and North Korea is “much closer and more dangerous than we want,” Bermudez said.

Western officials have generally done so dismissed the growing partnership between the countries as a desperate arrangement between rogue states, each with nowhere else to turn.

But at least in the short term, the partnership has worked for both parties.

Pyongyang gets a trade lifeline and vital military insight. According to The Times of London, North Korean weapons have been a major help to Russia’s advance in Ukraine over the past year.

Kim Jong Un, the North Korean leader, apparently upped the ante this summer by signing a “mutual aid” agreement that pledges “the full support and solidarity of the government and people of the DPRK to the Russian government and the Russian people affirm regarding the special military operations in North Korea. Ukraine,” North Korean state media said.

According to Howell, the agreement stated that each country would provide each other with mutual assistance in the event of an external attack, but it was “intentionally vague.”

According to Howell, what was initially a purely ‘transactional’ relationship with little ideological affinity has ‘escalated to new heights’.

Russia and North Korea don’t mind being seen as criminal actors in defying sanctions, Howell said.

“They don’t care if their international status is lowered,” he added. “And I think that makes this particularly concerning.”